Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[MikeB_01]

Extended HRRR has VERY minimal snow on the backside of the front. The precip dries out before dropping more than a dusting

[MikeB_01]

[olafminesaw]

Looks like a fine day for a brisk sail on Lake Erie Friday afternoon, with 20 foot waves, negative 20 windchills and 50 mph sustained winds!

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Extended HRRR has VERY minimal snow on the backside of the front. The precip dries out before dropping more than a dusting

Worth monitoring, but I feel like we can weigh it lightly until it gets inside about 12-18 hrs. That being said, the afternoon trends have been to diminish snowfall somewhat.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Extended HRRR has VERY minimal snow on the backside of the front. The precip dries out before dropping more than a dusting

Hard to lean too heavily on that HRRR, the fropa on it is insane and drops our temps to -5 by 9am.

[Gordo74]

 

TWC and NWS have us down to <1" now - I said I'd be happy with 1-2" on the ground when the cold came way back on page 9.... that looks like a fool's hope now.

[KPITSnow]

Oh well, was unlikely this was going to ever be much anyways 

[Rd9108]

Let's not get down already. Hopefully we get an inch or two. Seems like a lot of grinchy weenies in our sub forum.

[Ahoff]

NWS has us in 1-2".

[Rd9108]

Very interesting how the gfs has totally changed the low pressure track from 12z-18z could be just model noise but weird.

12z

18z

Maybe something to watch once the storm develops. 

 

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Extended HRRR has VERY minimal snow on the backside of the front. The precip dries out before dropping more than a dusting

Some of these maps make it look like we live in mid town Manhattan with the UHI effect. LOL 

It’s can be a factor with very marginal events, but not so much in this situation. 

[TheClimateChanger]

35 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Very interesting how the gfs has totally changed the low pressure track from 12z-18z could be just model noise but weird.

12z

18z

Maybe something to watch once the storm develops. 

 

Looks like the November 1950 storm, with rain and warm temperatures in Buffalo, and snow, wind and frigid weather in Pittsburgh.

[TheClimateChanger]

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't understand this snowfall map at all. It doesn't even look consistent with what the model is showing. The model is showing little if any snowfall. The precipitation pretty much shuts off on the modeled composite radar right as the cold front passes, after that temperatures and, especially, dewpoints absolutely crater, with precipitable water values plummeting to near zero. Where is all this snowfall coming from?

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't understand this snowfall map at all. It doesn't even look consistent with what the model is showing. The model is showing little if any snowfall. The precipitation pretty much shuts off on the modeled composite radar right as the cold front passes, after that temperatures and, especially, dewpoints absolutely crater, with precipitable water values plummeting to near zero. Where is all this snowfall coming from?

Hour 39 temperatures:

Hour 39 Simulated Radar:

I don't see any snow. The precipitation shield is confined to places above freezing, except in northwest Ohio.

For Pittsburgh, it looks like a burst of heavy rain, then maybe occasional flurries / light snow later in the day, which shouldn't amount to much in the extremely dry, arctic air.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Very interesting how the gfs has totally changed the low pressure track from 12z-18z could be just model noise but weird.

12z

18z

Maybe something to watch once the storm develops. 

 

Looks like just a shift east.  Looks like better snow coverage though.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't buy that Wheeling would have that much more than us, when the changes would essentially be the same just earlier for Wheeling.  Maybe just model noise.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I'm still holding out hope we can squeeze out an inch or so. I'll be highly irritated if I only come out of this with bare ground,  wind shredded outdoor Christmas decorations and a $40 increase in my heating bill for the weekend only for the next precipitation after the core of the cold moves out to be rain.

Sucks the storm sets up in a manner where the flow is SW, can't even bank in snow bands to help. That being said, can you imagine what Buffalo is about to get? Feet upon feet of snow with 70mph winds. The drifts will be insane. That's honestly getting borderline scarry with the deep cold / paralyzing snow / wind. Buffalo AFD calling a once in a generation storm.

 

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm still holding out hope we can squeeze out an inch or so. I'll be highly irritated if I only come out of this with bare ground,  wind shredded outdoor Christmas decorations and a $40 increase in my heating bill for the weekend only for the next precipitation after the core of the cold moves out to be rain.

Sucks the storm sets up in a manner where the flow is SW, can't even bank in snow bands to help. That being said, can you imagine what Buffalo is about to get? Feet upon feet of snow with 70mph winds. The drifts will be insane. That's honestly getting borderline scarry with the deep cold / paralyzing snow / wind. Buffalo AFD calling a once in a generation storm.

 

Unfortunately bare ground looks highly likely. NAM and HRRR are dry

Idk if I would even want to live in Buffalo with that much snow. 

[Ahoff]

Hopefully, we can get below 0.  Would be the first time in December since, what 1989?

It will be tough to do, but we’ll be getting close.

[Rd9108]

Gfs smoking crack again 

Looks like the low went from west Ohio to Central PA. Idk if that's gonna happen 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs smoking crack again 

Looks like the low went from west Ohio to Central PA. Idk if that's gonna happen 

I wonder what is causing that hole, it's been there on most models for awhile. Maybe just an illusion with Ohio getting more being closer to the low and the ridges getting some upslope help.

Hopefully GFS offers Euro a hit from the pipe and we get a last minute improvement. Maybe we double totals and see 2 inches.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I wonder what is causing that hole, it's been there on most models for awhile. Maybe just an illusion with Ohio getting more being closer to the low and the ridges getting some upslope help.

Hopefully GFS offers Euro a hit from the pipe and we get a last minute improvement. Maybe we double totals and see 2 inches.

If we get more than an inch I promise I'll be nice to KPitt this year.

[Burghblizz]

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

If we get more than an inch I promise I'll be nice to KPitt this year.

I think we will. I think it’s going to be like a nice lake band - awesome for a while, but knowing the end is near. It’s just how much moisture will be left. 

Honestly I’d rather be us and get 2” than be Chicago getting 5” (when they had hopes of a historic storm 2 days ago)

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Well... This should be fun to watch when the front rios through either way...

 

Confidence is high that a drastic change in weather conditions
will occur as a strong cold front races through the Ohio River
Valley before dawn Friday.

With the passage of the cold front expect the following:

1. Wind gusts will increase to 30-35 mph early Friday morning,
40-50 mph during the afternoon. Sustain winds of 20-25mph are
likely. With steep low level lapse rates due to strong cold
advection, 850mb winds (45-50kts) will have no trouble mixing
to the surface.

2. Temperatures will drop 20 degrees in a short time frame
(within 3-4 hours), creating a flash freeze risk. Note: With
the combination of high wind gusts and single digit
temperatures, wind chill values should also fall below zero.
With this forecast package, a Wind Chill Watch has been issued
across the entire area. A few time segments have been added for
the onset time of the Arctic air and an increase in gusts. The
Watch will likely be upgraded to Advisory/Warning in the next 12
to 24 hours. Right now, there is high confidence that the
ridges will reach the threshold for a Warning. Elsewhere, the
lowest wind chill value is -20F near I-80.

3. A sudden change in precipitation type will occur along the
frontal boundary, rain changing to snow. With strong
frontogenesis along the cold front, there is a chance of an
intense snow band that would advance west to east during the
Friday morning commute. The latest run of the NMB shows shallow
instability (35-50J/kg) in some regions. Simulated hi-res radar
depicts 25-40DBZ reflectivity along the frontal boundary. If
this is all snow, it will heavily impact the region.

Snow showers will prevail across the region the rest of Friday
afternoon within the cold air mass. However, the intensity will
wane in the absence of strong ascent. With snow ratios well
above the climatological average (could be as high as 20:1), an
additional 2+ inches is not out of the question through late
Friday night.

[Rd9108]

15 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Well... This should be fun to watch when the front rios through either way...

 

Confidence is high that a drastic change in weather conditions
will occur as a strong cold front races through the Ohio River
Valley before dawn Friday.

With the passage of the cold front expect the following:

1. Wind gusts will increase to 30-35 mph early Friday morning,
40-50 mph during the afternoon. Sustain winds of 20-25mph are
likely. With steep low level lapse rates due to strong cold
advection, 850mb winds (45-50kts) will have no trouble mixing
to the surface.

2. Temperatures will drop 20 degrees in a short time frame
(within 3-4 hours), creating a flash freeze risk. Note: With
the combination of high wind gusts and single digit
temperatures, wind chill values should also fall below zero.
With this forecast package, a Wind Chill Watch has been issued
across the entire area. A few time segments have been added for
the onset time of the Arctic air and an increase in gusts. The
Watch will likely be upgraded to Advisory/Warning in the next 12
to 24 hours. Right now, there is high confidence that the
ridges will reach the threshold for a Warning. Elsewhere, the
lowest wind chill value is -20F near I-80.

3. A sudden change in precipitation type will occur along the
frontal boundary, rain changing to snow. With strong
frontogenesis along the cold front, there is a chance of an
intense snow band that would advance west to east during the
Friday morning commute. The latest run of the NMB shows shallow
instability (35-50J/kg) in some regions. Simulated hi-res radar
depicts 25-40DBZ reflectivity along the frontal boundary. If
this is all snow, it will heavily impact the region.

Snow showers will prevail across the region the rest of Friday
afternoon within the cold air mass. However, the intensity will
wane in the absence of strong ascent. With snow ratios well
above the climatological average (could be as high as 20:1), an
additional 2+ inches is not out of the question through late
Friday night. 

This shouldnbe fun to watch roll through and hopefully it overperforms on snow and everybody is happy. If not oh well there will be plenty more.

[TheClimateChanger]

36 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Well... This should be fun to watch when the front rios through either way...

 

Confidence is high that a drastic change in weather conditions
will occur as a strong cold front races through the Ohio River
Valley before dawn Friday.

With the passage of the cold front expect the following:

1. Wind gusts will increase to 30-35 mph early Friday morning,
40-50 mph during the afternoon. Sustain winds of 20-25mph are
likely. With steep low level lapse rates due to strong cold
advection, 850mb winds (45-50kts) will have no trouble mixing
to the surface.

2. Temperatures will drop 20 degrees in a short time frame
(within 3-4 hours), creating a flash freeze risk. Note: With
the combination of high wind gusts and single digit
temperatures, wind chill values should also fall below zero.
With this forecast package, a Wind Chill Watch has been issued
across the entire area. A few time segments have been added for
the onset time of the Arctic air and an increase in gusts. The
Watch will likely be upgraded to Advisory/Warning in the next 12
to 24 hours. Right now, there is high confidence that the
ridges will reach the threshold for a Warning. Elsewhere, the
lowest wind chill value is -20F near I-80.

3. A sudden change in precipitation type will occur along the
frontal boundary, rain changing to snow. With strong
frontogenesis along the cold front, there is a chance of an
intense snow band that would advance west to east during the
Friday morning commute. The latest run of the NMB shows shallow
instability (35-50J/kg) in some regions. Simulated hi-res radar
depicts 25-40DBZ reflectivity along the frontal boundary. If
this is all snow, it will heavily impact the region.

Snow showers will prevail across the region the rest of Friday
afternoon within the cold air mass. However, the intensity will
wane in the absence of strong ascent. With snow ratios well
above the climatological average (could be as high as 20:1), an
additional 2+ inches is not out of the question through late
Friday night.

Maybe a snow squall warning?

[TimB]

High wind watch was issued overnight. Gusts to 60.

[Ecanem]

Great. I’m supposed to drive from Upper St Clair to Harrison City tomorrow for brunch with the in-laws And back.  We drive a Yukon xl.  Everything is telling me this is going to be a nightmare. 

[TimB]

Slowly rising temperatures Christmas Eve are going to midnight us out of breaking the low max record of 13, aren’t they?