olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Oh boy that should be fun lol. Honestly though if you aren't coming through until later in the day Friday outside of the mountains hopefully the roads in the low lands will be treated and reasonable to drive on. Yeah, that's kinda what I'm thinking. Might get a little sketchy around Beckley/NRG, but thankfully that route sticks to fairly low elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like this crazy storm broke the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like this crazy storm broke the gfs. Yeah, NCEP saying GFS running about 30 minutes behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Yeah, NCEP saying GFS running about 30 minutes behind. Weenies are losing their minds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, TimB said: Would you define something like .7” as getting blanked? No, but it's not ideal. Blanked is nothing on the ground. Still think we can pull out 2"-4", for now. We'll see what the trends do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Given no comments guessing GFS was a dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Given no comments guessing GFS was a dud About the same honestly. A little lower on the kuchera snowfall but I wouldn't expect more than like a clipper snowfall anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I feel like the Kuchera’s going to overestimate us on this one. No way we’re getting the kind of ratios that an air temp in the single digits would imply in that calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB said: I feel like the Kuchera’s going to overestimate us on this one. No way we’re getting the kind of ratios that an air temp in the single digits would imply in that calculation. Most likely. I think most would be happy with 3 or 4 inches. Idk if we can achieve that but it's atleast possible. Definitely will be watching the mix line on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, TimB said: I feel like the Kuchera’s going to overestimate us on this one. No way we’re getting the kind of ratios that an air temp in the single digits would imply in that calculation. Hard to say what ratios will be like. But the bulk of the time that moisture and cold overlap (per the GFS anyway), Is pretty much ideal for dendrite growth. As for whether they get obliterated by the wind, no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 One thing I noticed about the Euro, is that it's maintaining decent wrap around 700mb moisture through Saturday. This might not mean anything, but with plenty of energy available, the potential for more snowfall is there at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I'm driving to the mid-west for Christmas, probably before the blizzard hits, hope it snows a little here for when we get back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Euro weaker and progressive too, honestly the stronger storm might of helped us but this thing is falling apart for a lot of people. Doesn't mean we can't score 1-3 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It won't let me post it but the real story will be the winds. Euro is showing our area with up to 60 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: It won't let me post it but the real story will be the winds. Euro is showing our area with up to 60 mph gusts. I was going to say if those Euro forecast gusts are accurate, easily 45-55mph, it doesn't really matter if you get 4 inches or 1 inch, the snow will be blown around so much any un-sheltered area will be lucky to have a coating. Still hopefully enough to give the landscape that picturesque look. My bar is low, total fail is bare brown ground, even a light cover will do. Hopefully the wind blows all the snow off my roof into the front yard. Snow totals are going to come down to short range models really but if I had to guess its a pretty low ceiling now, 3 tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 In case you were wondering why this is close to record breaking December cold, check out where the air is coming from! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Enjoyed this way too much. Point and click for PIT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, TimB said: Enjoyed this way too much. Lol, yeah, I've noticed the Thursday night forecast has been broken all day. Or is this just how it works and is pulling the afternoon temperature based on when the cut off timeframe they set for the low temp? Either way, seems like a good way to confuse the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 More importantly, NWS seems to be rolling with 1-1.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: Lol, yeah, I've noticed the Thursday night forecast has been broken all day. Or is this just how it works and is pulling the afternoon temperature based on when the cut off timeframe they set for the low temp? Either way, seems like a good way to confuse the public. TWC isn’t any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, TimB said: Enjoyed this way too much. Point and click for PIT. Yeah, I saw this. It's a weird description. Never saw anything like that. Since they didn't saw 'new rain totals' I'm assuming their meaning rain changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, TimB said: TWC isn’t any better. I guess there's too much going on, they'd have to write a novel. Obviously once these temperatures drop below freezing it's going to snow. What's weird is TWC has 26 for the Thursday low and NWS has 10. So, that's more of an issue with regard to the flash freeze potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I guess there's too much going on, they'd have to write a novel. Obviously once these temperatures drop below freezing it's going to snow. What's weird is TWC has 26 for the Thursday low and NWS has 10. So, that's more of an issue with regard to the flash freeze potential. Fact of the matter is we’ll be down to 10 at some point Friday morning, regardless of semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB said: Fact of the matter is we’ll be down to 10 at some point Friday morning, regardless of semantics. Correct, but timing is super important for the freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Correct, but timing is super important for the freeze. Right, I guess that's the issue is technically the NWS forecast is correct. But it makes it look like the temp will drop to 10 in the early morning before rising to 33 in the afternoon. The only way I can think to present this better is to make the low match the high and put the little arrow indicator showing that the temp falls throughout the day. (None of this really matters, I just think it's wonky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Fwiw, Wunderground seems to heavily favor the euro given it’s down to less than an inch with little precipitation on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Ehhh this kind of just looks like a glorified arctic front now. Idk if I'd expect much from this. Sounds like an inch or two is a safe bet but what a total bust overall not just for us but the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Straddling the edge as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Straddling the edge as usual Could be worse. At least a small shift down and we're in, and if not it might not be heavy snow, but it should still be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I'd take this although probably a little over done Realistically do we want this to trend to be stronger or what's our best case here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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