Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[Burghblizz]

19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is pretty bad if you want snow. 

 

 

It’s basically what I was getting at before. Very similar to the GFS, but it continues on and tracks over Det. Meanwhile, GFS reaches a similar point, but retrogrades to western Mich, becomes occluded, and  gets the cold air quicker.
 

So the more eastern track actually hurts unless we want to go all in and hope for a 500 mile shift east. 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, windycutter said:

That at least allows for a white Christmas.  Moreover, snowfall amounts vary depending on model.  Plus, cannot takes things at this point verbatim.

I know just giving you a hard time. Gfs, cmc, and gefs atleast look decent for a moderate event. Let's see what the NAM and EPS do. 

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s basically what I was getting at before. Very similar to the GFS, but it continues on and tracks over Det. Meanwhile, GFS reaches a similar point, but retrogrades to western Mich, becomes occluded, and  gets the cold air quicker.
 

So the more eastern track actually hurts unless we want to go all in and hope for a 500 mile shift east. 

Interesting so a stronger storm is probably what we are rooting for since it may allow the front to come through faster?

[windycutter]

Has anyone/Mets mentioned the lake effect aspect of this storm?

[TimB]

18 minutes ago, windycutter said:

Has anyone/Mets mentioned the lake effect aspect of this storm?

SW flow behind the front. Forget it.

[CoraopolisWx]

21 minutes ago, windycutter said:

Has anyone/Mets mentioned the lake effect aspect of this storm?

If at some point we can get a Huron-Erie connection, it could be decent.

[TimB]

Ensembles are virtually unchanged for snow from 0z. Maybe an inch, two if we’re lucky on the ground for Christmas. The biggest change is that all of them bring the Arctic front through on Friday morning rather than later in the day.

[TimB]

Guess what’s back yet again. Entire CONUS above normal, as seems to happen at least 5 times a year these days. The opposite never happens.

 

[Ahoff]

28 minutes ago, TimB said:

Guess what’s back yet again. Entire CONUS above normal, as seems to happen at least 5 times a year these days. The opposite never happens.

 

Lol, they literally just had almost the entire country in blue a few days ago.  Did that happen that way?  Probably not, so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that right know.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Lol, they literally just had almost the entire country in blue a few days ago.  Did that happen that way?  Probably not, so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that right know.

Part of Florida was red or at the very least grey, so not quite the same. This is literally 100% coverage of red, and it happens alarmingly often.

[Ahoff]

28 minutes ago, TimB said:

Part of Florida was red or at the very least grey, so not quite the same. This is literally 100% coverage of red, and it happens alarmingly often.

Still, I wouldn't put stock in it.  Clearly the forecasts change in the short term.  We're literally seeing that right now, so wouldn't get up in arms about it.  In fact, I believe a week or so ago this period on those outlooks had warm contours for the east, after being cold and again shifting back to cold.

They don't know what's going on tomorrow let alone 2 weeks from now.  As is also clear from this phenomenal pattern we've been talking about since early December.  It didn't turn out the way we thought.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

I don’t know, unless you guys are hoping for a Christmas miracle apps runner, not sure SE is what we want. 

GFS 12z / 18z today both look good for track to maximize wrap around / anafrontal snow. Also looks like it has the best period of lake enhanced NW flow afterwards before going more westerly. Probably want it to bomb and occlude NE of us vs in Michigan if you want prolonged LES for us.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, windycutter said:

Big difference from the GFS.  Ratios would at least be better than 10:1 with the extreme cold.

Welcome, always glad when we get new posters to our region!

I don't think ratios will be much more than 10:1. High winds tend to break up the flakes as they fall. 

[windycutter]

14 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Welcome, always glad when we get new posters to our region!

I don't think ratios will be much more than 10:1. High winds tend to break up the flakes as they fall. 

Interesting, I was not aware of that process. Good to learn. 

[Ahoff]

Pretty good chance of a white Christmas.

[Rd9108]

Sounds like maybe some disappointed weenies out west is possible. Interesting post from the NE thread

 

 

[Burghblizz]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sounds like maybe some disappointments weenies out west is possible. Interesting post from the NE thread

 

 

That’s an interesting read. I also was just thinking why a nice storm suddenly is out to see other than just bad luck. Would be nice to have the opposite for a change, but it’s just too far. 

I doubt there is anything meanful for us, but interesting from a modeling perspective.

[Ahoff]

16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sounds like maybe some disappointed weenies out west is possible. Interesting post from the NE thread

 

 

What is that suggesting?  Would this suggest the system is weaker and could go further East?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What is that suggesting?  Would this suggest the system is weaker and could go further East?

Essentially yes, he’s saying the upper level support is racing out ahead of the surface, thus it could end up further east if the models continue with that type of evolution.

[TimB]

I know it’s the NAM at range, but the first look at the back end snow potential on the NAM is, well… not good.

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

I know it’s the NAM at range, but the first look at the back end snow potential on the NAM is, well… not good.

Agreed but it also had the LP jump around like 4 times. Let's see what the other modeling does. We know how the NAM can be.

[TimB]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Agreed but it also had the LP jump around like 4 times. Let's see what the other modeling does. We know how the NAM can be.

Probably too early to take any NAM output seriously.

[tim123]

Nam is horrible in long range. Don't use it until within 36 hours

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

What is that suggesting?  Would this suggest the system is weaker and could go further East?

I might be in the minority, but I miss the (very) old board format when we would do model runs as they happened as their own thread.

So you would get a lot of this where Mets would chime in and say things like how the upper levels don’t match the surface depiction, and to “expect it to go east/west,etc”. That was very helpful and helped you know what shifts to expect outside of the model biases.

They changed that when the board got too big…and one weenie would say “it’s east!” when another would say “it’s coming west!”. Meanwhile, it was just the precip shield over their backyard. 

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I might be in the minority, but I miss the (very) old board format when we would do model runs as they happened as their own thread.

So you would get a lot of this where Mets would chime in and say things like how the upper levels don’t match the surface depiction, and to “expect it to go east/west,etc”. That was very helpful and helped you know what shifts to expect outside of the model biases.

They changed that when the board got too big…and one weenie would say “it’s east!” when another would say “it’s coming west!”. Meanwhile, it was just the precip shield over their backyard. 

Yeah I always enjoy when MAG or another met break down the models and explain their problems or why they believe that they are missing something. That's why I belong to usa wx too because whenever there is an east coast storm they analyze everything. Isn't jwilson a met too? 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah I always enjoy when MAG or another met break down the models and explain their problems or why they believe that they are missing something. That's why I belong to usa wx too because whenever there is an east coast storm they analyze everything. Isn't jwilson a met too? 

Is jwilson an actual met or is he just smart? Or did he stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

Is jwilson an actual met or is he just smart? Or did he stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

No idea he usually has some good technical insight. Other than MAG I don't know who the actual Mets are unless they are in red.

[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

No idea he usually has some good technical insight. Other than MAG I don't know who the actual Mets are unless they are in red.

The regional board format hurts that because the dozens of other Mets are posting exclusively in their regions. Whereas they used to have them all discussing the overall model run for basically the entire threat area.

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I might be in the minority, but I miss the (very) old board format when we would do model runs as they happened as their own thread.

So you would get a lot of this where Mets would chime in and say things like how the upper levels don’t match the surface depiction, and to “expect it to go east/west,etc”. That was very helpful and helped you know what shifts to expect outside of the model biases.

They changed that when the board got too big…and one weenie would say “it’s east!” when another would say “it’s coming west!”. Meanwhile, it was just the precip shield over their backyard. 

I remember those days back on EasternUS Wx. You did have to know where peoples location was to interpret their posts. Getting Euro data was like finding the holy grail and you always had someone trying to ask an imby question thinly veiled as something else lol. Always the love / hate on again off again relationship with DT. 

Sometimes I still follow along the MA threat threads as it still has a light version of that feel but you do lose that interaction with quality posters from other regions now and you can be met with some serious outsider hostility which sucks. 

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

No idea he usually has some good technical insight. Other than MAG I don't know who the actual Mets are unless they are in red.

SWPA has always lacked a red tagger for the most part, at least one officially declared. We had one for a couple years with handle of NineInchNails but I think he took a Met job in TX and slowly faded away. Lots of intelligent and knowledgeable folks though through the years and our fair share of screw balls too.