TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Any thoughts on travel Friday afternoon/early evening? Seems temps will be in the low 20s at that time, although the timing of the front is still TBD. At what temp would you expect roads to freeze solid? 12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12Z GFS Kuch likes us again. i'd be happy with half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Seems to like snow earlier so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB said: 12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe. Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I wouldn't underestimate this beast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: Am I the only one who isn’t all that impressed with the magnitude of the cold even behind the frontal passage? With the lack of snow cover, NWS is already going high on temps for the holiday weekend. Highs in the upper teens and lows in the upper single digits. Meh. We got cold of that magnitude pretty much every winter up until the last few winters when it became nearly impossible to get a high below 20. Probably, because snow will be minimal. If we had a good pack you could probably knock those temps down a few degrees. It is still pretty tough to get temps that cold here in December, though, so...it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I wouldn't underestimate this beast never trust a cut off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB said: Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees. Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 TWC has a big slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Gordo74 said: TWC has a big slot. I'd call that 2-4". That 3" line runs close by. Bernie Rayno said the GFS was trending west and thought it was too far west, and said the Euro was trending east. He still thinks there will be east trends, but I think he's moved us out of big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: 12Z GFS Kuch likes us again. i'd be happy with half. Yeah, 10"-12", we'll take that. And for Tim, GFS shows a low around 3 and a high around 7 on Christmas Eve and 5 and 13 on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time. GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18. Would like to believe for practical, non weather weenie purposes that it’s probably better if this happens earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not all cutters are created equal - I don’t think this is about willing it to the east. It’s more about intensity and timing. West could be best. We could have crashing temps with SW winds because of how wound up this is. Meanwhile, places just east of the track (including as far north as Ontario are raining). Different evolution, but our biggest storm ever (11.1950) did something similar. That’s why I think we have a better than normal chance of having more precip when the cold air gets there. The GFS then wants to retrograde it and prolong the snows. That’s what it basically gives us a foot. So no, it isn’t likely. And no it’s not Nov 1950. But I wouldn’t punt yet just because it cuts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18. Ugh, thank you. Now it's just a matter of figuring out if it's a terrible idea to tackle frozen roads with AWD. It's going to be mostly highway, (RT19/I-79) which might be okay, depending on a number of factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 To the extent that the Ukie matters, it’s now showing 0.2” of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: To the extent that the Ukie matters, it’s now showing 0.2” of snow. Isn't UK just for track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Isn't UK just for track? Probably. I don’t spend much time thinking about what that model shows for any situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Pretty nice shift SE on the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Not all cutters are created equal - I don’t think this is about willing it to the east. It’s more about intensity and timing. West could be best. We could have crashing temps with SW winds because of how wound up this is. Meanwhile, places just east of the track (including as far north as Ontario are raining). Different evolution, but our biggest storm ever (11.1950) did something similar. That’s why I think we have a better than normal chance of having more precip when the cold air gets there. The GFS then wants to retrograde it and prolong the snows. That’s what it basically gives us a foot. So no, it isn’t likely. And no it’s not Nov 1950. But I wouldn’t punt yet just because it cuts. Yeah, as long as we can keep that mid level moisture wrapping behind, the existing energy could produce some decent fluff with the crashing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I don’t know, unless you guys are hoping for a Christmas miracle apps runner, not sure SE is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 New here! Weather enthusiast! By the looks of the current set up, the tightly packed isobar lines, will more than likely deliver quite a wind storm (regardless of precip types). I would imagine that the winds will be just as notable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, windycutter said: New here! Weather enthusiast! By the looks of the current set up, the tightly packed isobar lines, will more than likely deliver quite a wind storm (regardless of precip types). I would imagine that the winds will be just as notable. Welcome! Your name seems appropriate for this week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 CMC wants to keep it cold through Wednesday. Even negatives from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro is pretty bad if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Continues to crush our back end snow dreams. You know that’s how it’s going to play out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, TimB said: Continues to crush our back end snow dreams. You know that’s how it’s going to play out too. Yep cold and snowless and then we probably torch. Terrible start to winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yep cold and snowless and then we probably torch. Terrible start to winter so far. Once the 500 anomalies on the GEFS go red over our area next Tuesday, they stay red for the remainder of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, windycutter said: Big difference from the GFS. Ratios would at least be better than 10:1 with the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, windycutter said: Lol so 2 inches instead of .5. Still time to get a favorable trend. Obviously any hope of 4+ is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol so 2 inches instead of .5. Still time to get a favorable trend. Obviously any hope of 4+ is gone. That at least allows for a white Christmas. Moreover, snowfall amounts vary depending on model. Plus, cannot takes things at this point verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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