Rd9108 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Idt I can remember a major storm that was modeled a cutter that actually trended south east. It seems to never happen. Still some time for some changes but man this pattern just won't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 42 minutes ago, TimB said: I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality. Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining. Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount. GFS still has 3-6" back end. Why don't we wait. it's still 5 days, not 2 away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: GFS still has 3-6" back end. Why don't we wait. it's still 5 days, not 2 away. Ehh this one is over. It's more so 3 days away for the actual storm to form. Honestly I said I'd be fine with a few inches and I stick to it. I just hate seeing massive cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 58 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh this one is over. It's more so 3 days away for the actual storm to form. Honestly I said I'd be fine with a few inches and I stick to it. I just hate seeing massive cutters. It's 5 days before it affects us. Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown. Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time. I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 44 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It's 5 days before it affects us. Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown. Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time. I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible. Yeah, with so many moving parts, still in play for anything. The ENS means are still pretty solid last time I checked. Kinda interesting with all the separate pieces of energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS looks like it’s coming in with the most boring depiction of this thing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well just watched the latest Bernie video and he fully believes the models are most likely too far west and will move east somewhat. As of now he has us in his thinking for heavy snow. Hopefully we see some improvements starting at the latest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 From my amateur eyes looks like the 18z gfs trended east a bit with the low and we even get a burst of heavy snow on the backend. Baby steps. Alright I need some sleep. Didn't get much at work last night. Hopefully we can have a good 0z suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 A looooot of doom and gloom in here for a chance of 3"+ of snow on the ground for Christmas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 When I look at any of these snow depth maps for 12z Christmas morning all I can see is blades of grass poking through the snow and bare spots in any areas that may have gotten any degree of sun on Saturday or where the wind behind the Arctic front drifted the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Well just watched the latest Bernie video and he fully believes the models are most likely too far west and will move east somewhat. As of now he has us in his thinking for heavy snow. Hopefully we see some improvements starting at the latest tomorrow. It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out. The coast is not getting it like they thought. We have a chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: When I look at any of these snow depth maps for 12z Christmas morning all I can see is blades of grass poking through the snow and bare spots in any areas that may have gotten any degree of sun on Saturday or where the wind behind the Arctic front drifted the snow. Well, doesn’t mean it’s right. Keep the faith, it’s Christmas time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Well, doesn’t mean it’s right. Keep the faith, it’s Christmas time. I guess at the end of the day, maybe we just need to be happy with the fact that we managed to get two above normal snow seasons out of 3 Niñas in a row. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, TimB said: I guess at the end of the day, maybe we just need to be happy with the fact that we managed to get two above normal snow seasons out of 3 Niñas in a row. It's Dec. 17, lol. How do you know it won't be an above average season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It's Dec. 17, lol. How do you know it won't be an above average season? True. We were in the same boat last Dec. 17 and we made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, TimB said: True. We were in the same boat last Dec. 17 and we made it. We should know by now December is an uphill battle lately, but not a death knell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 So how long do yinz think the warm spell that’s coming a few days after Christmas is going to last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 59 minutes ago, TimB said: So how long do yinz think the warm spell that’s coming a few days after Christmas is going to last? As of right now I don't think it's projected to last very long. Low near Alaska should shift West letting -epo re-establish. People much more up on things also think the -Nao will reload and typically strong negative -AOs like we have now bode well for reoccurring throughout winter. That all assumes models aren't breaking the colder look down to fast. Nina Winters seem to swing back and forth, I don't think anyone was saying the cold pattern would lock in until March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out. The coast is not getting it like they thought. We have a chance. Yeah I wouldn't give up on this yet. I doubt a full blown snow storm like yesterday's 18z GFS happens but we could still get a progression that's favorable for more than a 1-3 inch type deal we are looking at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: As of right now I don't think it's projected to last very long. Low near Alaska should shift West letting -epo re-establish. People much more up on things also think the -Nao will reload and typically strong negative -AOs like we have now bode well for reoccurring throughout winter. That all assumes models aren't breaking the colder look down to fast. Nina Winters seem to swing back and forth, I don't think anyone was saying the cold pattern would lock in until March. Well yeah, prevailing wisdom seems to be that February could be ugly so hoping we can have a solid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Probably not worth over analyzing 5 days out….and it’s definitely not perfect…but 0Z GFS is a step back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 CMC also further east. Baby steps. It would be nice to see the euro come east tonight a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Figured one more post for I go to sleep. Here's the 12z vs 0z. Big jump there. We track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Actually I just saw this. UKMet looks east fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Figured one more post for I go to sleep. Here's the 12z vs 0z. Big jump there. We track All 00z models look to be slightly better. As is we would have one hell of a flash freeze / abrupt change to snow. Should be some serious wind too, plus the low position in New York state would give a period of lake enhancement as it pulls away. Captain obvious but if we get a continued improvement could get even more interesting. I'm all for a clean snow event but a dynamic beast of a storm could still be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Meanwhile this upper trough moving through is setting off some moderate snow right now. Little over a quarter inch right now. Radar has a pretty healthy band showing up. These types of things are our bread and butter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Got 1.5” here. Nice surprise lol except for the 10 car accidents and road closures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Around a surprise inch on the ground this morning. Enough to cover most of the grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Surprise tonight for sure. Someone slid down the hill across from my house hitting a pole and sparks flew. Don't think anyone was hurt and can't tell if anyone lost power, but still pretty icy I guess. Moral is we can get some surprises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 We’ll always take the bonus snow, plus decent model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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