TimB Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It’s official. Three 70 degree days in the same month in winter for the first time ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, TimB said: It’s official. Three 70 degree days in the same month in winter for the first time ever. The opposite of what's happening out west. So it's not like the whole country is torching. We are just in a shit pattern due to a absolutely terrible Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Next weekend. This would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 12/6/2022 at 10:35 AM, TheClimateChanger said: Very La Nina-ish. Looks like January 1950, with the crazy amounts of rainfall. Warm temperatures in the east, with cold and snow locked in the west and upper Midwest. My 1949-50 analog has worked out well so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Next weekend. This would be funny This winter has been so bad, we haven’t even had anything to track other than the glorified Arctic front just before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Seems pretty likely we don’t see any more measurable snow in February, which will also make this the least snowy February ever at 0.2”. The current record is 0.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Gfs shows this and cmc shows a cutter to ohio and a transfer that's just too late for us. I guess we track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS got on board at 6z with a better look for that storm. GEFS ensemble mean is up over 4” for that period. The biggest concern (and a major one) is that the Euro/EPS are having none of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 15 hours ago, Rd9108 said: The opposite of what's happening out west. So it's not like the whole country is torching. We are just in a shit pattern due to a absolutely terrible Pacific. Yep, century's old records being broken out there as well, just the cold records. We'll get ours again. Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years. Averages are so mundane. I'd take a week of climatological norms with a day or two slightly above and below over 2-3 days of above average followed by 36hrs of far below average then 2-3 days of right back above average. That's winter weather versus a strong fall or spring cold front taking place in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 51 minutes ago, donyewest said: Averages are so mundane. I'd take a week of climatological norms with a day or two slightly above and below over 2-3 days of above average followed by 36hrs of far below average then 2-3 days of right back above average. That's winter weather versus a strong fall or spring cold front taking place in the middle of winter. Well sure, but we can't discredit the record cold in December, because it was potent. Plus, it was the coldest Christmas weekend in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Probably boring everyone with the climate information, but there's not much more to talk about. But anyways, with the recent warm weather, with 5 days remaining in the month, this is currently the warmest mean high temperature for February on record. Today's high will go down in the books as 49, and the rest of the month looks like 40s and 50s so I suspect this holds. Also, the daily range [difference between high & low temperature] has been 22.5F this month. That is the largest range on record by a significant margin for the month of February. In fact, running this through Excel, I could find only 4 other years at 20+ in the entire threaded record - 3 of which were exactly 20.0F. 2023 22.5 1990 20.5 1906 20.0 1884 20.0 1876 20.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Well sure, but we can't discredit the record cold in December, because it was potent. Plus, it was the coldest Christmas weekend in decades. Oh, I absolutely agree but I kinda wish the MET offices would move to superior techniques like curve fitting, change over time, differential calculus. Two simplistic "extreme" examples: 1. Person A, born and died at an average age all while living at sea level in Florida, but climbed Mt. Everest twice in their life for funsies. Person B, born and died at an average age all while living in our region ~1000ft above sea level, never left home. Who spent more of their life at a higher altitude? 2. Person X can swim half the length of an average sized pool at its maximum depth of 6ft. Person Y can only hold their breath long enough to swim straight down and touch the bottom of a 12ft pool then swim right back up. Who spent more time at the deeper depth? Official MET observations are taken at hourly intervals yet they figure average temperature from only the max and min. That's like saying we would have had a great winter if we catch up with all of our snow in March even if it melts in two days time. Extremes are important, outliers are necessary data points, but they can strongly skew averages. It took 4 days of -14F or more max/min departures in December to make that month come out to only -0.7F below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Yep, century's old records being broken out there as well, just the cold records. We'll get ours again. Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years. Point me to a century old record that was broken out west. I’m talking the big ones, like monthly temperature records or total seasonal snowfall records like the ones being broken in the east, not some piddly daily record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Don’t look at the 12z GFS. That thing is a monster. Just a casual 8” in 3 hours at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 It's all downhill from here. Enjoy it for 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: It's all downhill from here. Enjoy it for 6 hours March snow.. especially after a season like this one.. Go big or go home! Probably the best run all season (not saying much) but after a month of only checking models once every other day I've been checking in daily on this one, might have to up that frequency if we actually have a shot at something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I give it less than 48 hours before it shows a cutter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 It snows on my birthday from time to time, so lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, jwilson said: I give it less than 48 hours before it shows a cutter. You guys may hate me for saying this but I have a flight Sunday morning. 20 inches of snow would be no Bueno. How about just a 5-8 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: You guys may hate me for saying this but I have a flight Sunday morning. 20 inches of snow would be no Bueno. How about just a 5-8 event... We won’t even get that, we’ll get the solution all of the other models are still showing. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just for pleasure and to laugh. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Dev team must have gone wild this winter on the GFS because the EPS (totally worth the membership cost after Pivotal Weather integrated it) shows us in the 50s on March 5 and 6 with a total snowfall of maaaaybe 2" from now through 00z March 07. ...2" of QPF same time frame I saw this interesting Tweet about the NCAR models showing that the response to the present (ongoing or done?) SSW may be very atypical: Cold goes where it's been cold and warm stays where it's been warm. I haven't had a chance to dig into it much but sounds like the NCAR model response was so atypical that it caught attention from several researchers I follow. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if this winter keeps it different but it would absolutely surprise me if we don't get the common cool Spring that typically happens after late SSWs/vortex reversal. Final cold air breakup not making it here would make this a warm Spring, fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: 2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold. Fun to see, but still a ton of spread. GEFS have a lot of members with a pretty wound up cutter. But hey, 26 inches gets us to almost normal snowfall for the season so I say bring it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Fun to see, but still a ton of spread. GEFS have a lot of members with a pretty wound up cutter. But hey, 26 inches gets us to almost normal snowfall for the season so I say bring it! GEFS mean went down significantly at 18z, so unfortunately it’s only a matter of time before this goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, TimB said: 2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold. The trend needed to stop 3 runs ago. Let’s hope we get fringed south until Sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Wow.. meanwhile Canadian has it snowing in NC lol. That would probably be some of the heaviest snow rates I can recall on a model. Now off to bed, really has to be downhill from this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12 hours ago, Rd9108 said: It's all downhill from here. Enjoy it for 6 hours 00z says hold my beer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 00z gets scary close with the rain snow line. Would like a slight south trend again XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now