CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Maybe next Wednesday will work out for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Anyone remember when the first weekend of Feb was supposed to be the cold part of our pattern? This failure of a winter rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Maybe next Wednesday will work out for everyone. Oh, bless your heart, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This winter is over, not that it ever started. Today was our last chance. Unless I see something that proves otherwise, the southeast ridge is a permanent fixture of our climo now and will be for years and decades to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, TimB said: This winter is over, not that it ever started. Today was our last chance. Unless I see something that proves otherwise, the southeast ridge is a permanent fixture of our climo now and will be for years and decades to come. Set the bar low and you can never be disappointed. I see what you are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Once the permanent southeast ridge returns on Saturday, it remains over our area in some way, shape or form for the remainder of the 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I really haven’t even looked or tracked this winter. The last two winters were decent, and honestly came with a few bigger storms which was a nice change in comparison to a long time where we couldn’t even get a warning level event. that said, it sure feels like we don’t even get the overrunning events where we start with multiple hours before torching, even if means a sloppy mess of snow and ice. It seems now everything just turns to liquid really fast. And if we are forecasted all snow most of the time it ends in a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, TimB said: Anyone remember when the first weekend of Feb was supposed to be the cold part of our pattern? This failure of a winter rolls on. You trusting the gfs past 5 days is doomed to fail. It could end up being 80 or 20 and heavy snow. Gotta wait to see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Don't discount tonight and tomorrow, very well could produce more snow and feel like a real winter day vs what we got today. Cold NW flow off the lakes enhanced by a series of little waves moving through the upper trough could provide one of those nice snow globe type days were it snows on and off a good part of the day and we manage a couple inches. NAM showed a couple decent bands too, although that of course would be more of a radar / nowcast thing tomorrow. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Perturbed flow with various weak shortwaves is expected in the wake of the exiting winter system that shifts towards the northeast CONUS. The combination of vort advection within broad upper troughing plus cold advection, varied lake enhancement, and orographic lift will promote mostly scattered snow showers Thursday into early Friday morning. Enough moisture is expected to remain to have periods of decent DGZ growth that could lead to an additional 1-2" of snow for most locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Meh, too little too late unless it’s the 2-3” today should have been. Anything less than 2”, even 1.9”, tomorrow and this event is still an epic failure to me. Oh, and NWS suggests it could STILL, ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM be warm enough for rain to mix in tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, TimB said: Meh, too little too late unless it’s the 2-3” today should have been. Anything less than 2”, even 1.9”, tomorrow and this event is still an epic failure to me. Oh, and NWS suggests it could STILL, ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM be warm enough for rain to mix in tomorrow afternoon. I wouldn't consider what happens tomorrow even part of this event. I agree today it failed. Anecdotally once things start falling apart or conversely getting better the models are playing catch up so we tend to see "good" and "bad" busts. This one had a low ceiling all along, we know historically how these things go, and we knew yesterday it was degrading but there was still some uncertainty with placements of banding and warm air etc so we hung on to hope. To your other post about the SE ridge, its been a constant all winter. Its been rinse and repeat good patterns in the long range end up only being marginally better short interludes to our base state of winter. I pretty much expect the same once we get past the first week of Feb, doesn't mean we can't get lucky along the way. If your in the hobby of tracking storms is strictly end results based, its probably not going to be a healthy experience. If you enjoy following the trends, trying to learn something new, posting obs, and can take joy from the little things while sharing constructively in the loses and triumphs with others who poses this odd obsession with frozen water crystals then you'll realize the end result may be disappointing but the ride was still worth it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I wouldn't consider what happens tomorrow even part of this event. I agree today it failed. Anecdotally once things start falling apart or conversely getting better the models are playing catch up so we tend to see "good" and "bad" busts. This one had a low ceiling all along, we know historically how these things go, and we knew yesterday it was degrading but there was still some uncertainty with placements of banding and warm air etc so we hung on to hope. To your other post about the SE ridge, its been a constant all winter. Its been rinse and repeat good patterns in the long range end up only being marginally better short interludes to our base state of winter. I pretty much expect the same once we get past the first week of Feb, doesn't mean we can't get lucky along the way. If your in the hobby of tracking storms is strictly end results based, its probably not going to be a healthy experience. If you enjoy following the trends, trying to learn something new, posting obs, and can take joy from the little things while sharing constructively in the loses and triumphs with others who poses this odd obsession with frozen water crystals then you'll realize the end result may be disappointing but the ride was still worth it. Big picture, that’s a good way of looking at it. This has probably been the most frustrating winter of the 21st century, and that includes 19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Ha, they reduced snow totals for the backside of this storm significantly. It had read 1-3" tonight with >1" over the next few days. Now it's less than half an inch tonight and less than an inch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Any chance we end up with less than 10 inches for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Homie J said: Any chance we end up with less than 10 inches for the winter? Sunday-Monday put PIT up to 10.3” so officially no, but I’m sure there are plenty of places in the county that are below 10” or maybe even below 5”. Looks like the NWS obs for today is going to be 1.1”, so we’d be at 11.4 officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The snow futility record for Pittsburgh is 8.8” in 1918-19, so we’re out of the running for that. What we do still have a shot at is the modern snow futility record of 16.6” in 1973-74 if you don’t trust the records from over a century ago. There’s also the 17.2” in 1990-91, 21.7” in 1988-89, and 22.4” in 2019-20 to round out the list of worst winters in modern history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Still made it above average temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Horrible wind and it continues. Trees down all over and multiple power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 A quick calculation seems to indicate that we should finish January about +8 on temps and be in the running with 1998 for 2nd warmest January since official obs moved to the airport. Don’t think we can catch 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Is there a line of storms moving through eastern Ohio right now?Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern. Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, TimB said: 18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern. Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable. What is also unbelievable is long range GFS, lol. Not even worth fretting over at this point. Within a week is worth worrying about, heck it changes within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Well I mean that’s the ensemble, not the long range operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: What is also unbelievable is long range GFS, lol. Not even worth fretting over at this point. Within a week is worth worrying about, heck it changes within 24 hours. Once one model shows bad it’s over. Every. Single. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 How long does La Niña last? Shouldn’t it be over soon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Time to make a Spring thread lol (60/40 kidding/serious) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, TimB said: Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades. Are you KPitts alt? You've been awfully negative lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Are you KPitts alt? You've been awfully negative lately. Someone has to play the KPIT role. But yeah, I have no idea why this storm that we knew was going to be a fail pushed me over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 50 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: How long does La Niña last? Shouldn’t it be over soon lol Typically 1-2 years, we are in year 3 and most long term models have it breaking down and maybe moving into an El Nino over the next several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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