RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I mean this is the difference a day makes for this threat. A week away this thing could go anyway at this point. Crazy we can't seem to beat down that ridging in the east even a little bit. Would make a world of difference for our chances that's for sure. I agree though, pretty big changes run to run so nothing set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Guess we’re putting all our eggs in the 18z HRRR basket at the very end of its range. 0z will most likely cut totals down and continue that trend. We don't win against warm air we just don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Come on guys. This 18z has issues with precip. Until they all show this area of no precip disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, north pgh said: Come on guys. This 18z has issues with precip. Until they all show this area of no precip disregard it. Shhh I'm using reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 GEFS average is 3-4" for the Wednesday event, which would happen early and in marginal temperatures. SREF plumes average closer to 2" and it's actually been dropping the last four runs. Like what we saw early this morning, that probably means it's more like a "Snain" (or white rain) and the roads may remain clear, especially if treated. The NAM depicts a big old dryslot, which certainly isn't unprecedented. No doubt that would cut totals considerably because on the backend of that dry slot is nothing but rain. I think the SREF blend (which includes the ARW) is picking up on this, as well, hence the lower figures. The frontogenic forcing looks great on paper, it's just a matter of whether we see dry air intrusion that cuts the initial band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 If the long term GFS holds it is going to be mighty cold later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: If the long term GFS holds it is going to be mighty cold later next week. Yep and most of the storms are east of us for a change. Hopefully other guidance catches on because I'm sick of the mud!! Just had to give my one dog a bath because of the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Love when the 18z GFS does 18z GFS things. That fantasy storm that ushers in the brutal cold would make nearly everyone in the northeast and mid Atlantic happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, TimB said: Love when the 18z GFS does 18z GFS things. That fantasy storm that ushers in the brutal cold would make nearly everyone in the northeast and mid Atlantic happy. Idk the Euro hinted at this too yesterday. It may not last long but we could get a good period coming up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Well hopefully this can trend better but man just north of the city gets hit hard on the NAM Looks right to me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Well hopefully this can trend better but man just north of the city gets hit hard on the NAM Looks right to me lol Everything riding on where that frontogenetic band sets up. Seems like it's been slowly ticking North so wouldn't shock me if NAM is right about placement but little over zealous with amounts. Still time, placement of that feature is a short range thing, if we keep it close still a chance for a good bust during nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I’m glad I stayed away from this up at springs this weekend. Between Friday and Today they got probably 6-8inches total. Bad part was tons of ice under the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 HRRR is losing this one too. It’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, TimB said: HRRR is losing this one too. It’s over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 It's time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, north pgh said: It's time. I was looking for the one I made so I'm stealing this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 hours ago, TimB said: HRRR is losing this one too. It’s over. Not liking the trends here, everything seems to be leaning towards the best thump being just north of Allegheny County. Still a lot of uncertainty though. NW of the city (sometimes way NW) is going to be favored in this pattern, but you'd think we could get something being so close to the boundary. 00z GFS provides some hope for that, but even that changes so drastically it's hard to put much faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 NWS updated to 1-2" up front, 1-2" for the back, with most of the regional NWS at 4-6" through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 CPC has us in the slight risk of heavy snow from 2/2-2/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 55 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Not liking the trends here, everything seems to be leaning towards the best thump being just north of Allegheny County. Still a lot of uncertainty though. NW of the city (sometimes way NW) is going to be favored in this pattern, but you'd think we could get something being so close to the boundary. 00z GFS provides some hope for that, but even that changes so drastically it's hard to put much faith. It's near impossible to trust anything in this pattern. Granted, it's the fantasy range so hardly worth analyzing, but even when the thermal boundary sets up in Northern Alabama/Georgia, the GFS still wants to cut the storm to our west. It's pretty laughable at this point. We're just on the wrong side of the boundary this year with everything. It's probably safe to assume all viable threats will cut until they don't. No blocking + southeast ridge, absent a well-timed TPV interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I’m about 10 feet on the good side of the NAM (SE extreme of its 5”-7” swath). But no room for error and agonizingly close for others. That initial push of moisture to the north is annoying. Hopefully that is wider (and/or) sets up farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, jwilson said: It's near impossible to trust anything in this pattern. Granted, it's the fantasy range so hardly worth analyzing, but even when the thermal boundary sets up in Northern Alabama/Georgia, the GFS still wants to cut the storm to our west. It's pretty laughable at this point. We're just on the wrong side of the boundary this year with everything. It's probably safe to assume all viable threats will cut until they don't. No blocking + southeast ridge, absent a well-timed TPV interaction. Yeah, unfortunately the mean trough has been a bit west of what the NWS hinted at this fall. I agree though, until we get that big banana high to setup over S. Quebec, it's likely more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looks like 3k NAM is slightly better than the 6z. Maybe we can get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Not sure if this will make any difference, but there is a boundary crossing the metro right now, which actually showed up on the NAM yesterday. Will be curious how far south it pushes today, and then where that initial RN/SN line sets up tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Yes, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 18z HRRR looks dry as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, TimB said: 18z HRRR looks dry as hell. Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end. Meanwhile, the NWS ups totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end. These midwest storms just don't have the juice an east coast storm has. That 850mb fetch off the Atlantic makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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