north pgh Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Low around 34. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west 20 to 25 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Ukie would make many happy verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 39 minutes ago, donyewest said: Does everyone love the 6z and 18z runs because they show what we want? The most accurate runs are 00z and 12z. 6z and 18z runs are not to be trusted, as in, shouldn't even post them. This is a myth I believe. It used to be they didn't get new data in the 6z and 18z but I believe this has changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Also just saw the 12z euro and it does not look like the gfs for the 1/23 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Also just saw the 12z euro and it does not look like the gfs for the 1/23 threat. Right now all models are trending colder for Sunday giving us a couple inches. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, north pgh said: Right now all models are trending colder for Sunday giving us a couple inches. I like the trend. Even the threat after looks interesting especially if we can get this to transfer/ move further east. I guess I'm back for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, north pgh said: Right now all models are trending colder for Sunday giving us a couple inches. I like the trend. Yep and honestly probably just need to focus on that first and see how it trends. A little 3-6 event would help resuscitate this sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, donyewest said: Does everyone love the 6z and 18z runs because they show what we want? The most accurate runs are 00z and 12z. 6z and 18z runs are not to be trusted, as in, shouldn't even post them. I've seen others on other forums say the 6z and 18z runs aren't terrible like they used to be. Not sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Ukie would make many happy verbatim Yeah, 6"-10" who's going to complain, even if it were a good year we shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Sun’s out. Hopefully that brings the storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Euro still showing 1-2” for Sunday and 2-4/3-5 for Wednesday. Not the big storm we want, but better than what we’ve had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Low around 34. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west 20 to 25 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Getting some full sun right now, not sure if that was expected but might boost some instability. I think we have had more thunderstorm type threats than snow thus far this January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 30 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Euro still showing 1-2” for Sunday and 2-4/3-5 for Wednesday. Not the big storm we want, but better than what we’ve had. Ill be up in the mountains, hoping for a good blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Sunday looking a little better…I feel like Wed is trending towards a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 56 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Sunday looking a little better…I feel like Wed is trending towards a cutter. I thought when one storm comes through it sets the baroclinic zone for the next one, which essentially sets the next one up on the same track or farther east. Seems it never actually works that way at all, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 53 minutes ago, windycutter said: Oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Oh my... I mean it's good for a few inches but not much more. Regardless let's get something on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I mean it's good for a few inches but not much more. Regardless let's get something on the board. Looks nice though. Maybe it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Jan 19 and it's storming like may. Coming down good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 good CTG lightning strikes here in Ross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Did I read (maybe in the Forecast Discussion), a few weeks ago, how exceedingly rare cloud to ground lightning is in January around here? Like only once in the last whole bunch of years? We just had a few good ones here in Hopewell too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, north pgh said: 3 good CTG lightning strikes here in Ross. Yeah several lightening flashes and wicked gust or downburst knocked the power out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Storm knocked power out to "501-1500" customers up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 39 minutes ago, Digger said: Did I read (maybe in the Forecast Discussion), a few weeks ago, how exceedingly rare cloud to ground lightning is in January around here? Like only once in the last whole bunch of years? We just had a few good ones here in Hopewell too. Yep, I remember reading that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Maybe this Lightning tonight will energize the atmosphere to get us some Winter Snow for the remainder of this Month and February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I dont like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I dont like the NAM There’s still a bit of time. We’ll probably be burned, but we never truly know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 RGEM is the opposite of the NAM. Let's see what the other 0z guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I dont like the NAM Can’t be any p-type issues if there’s no precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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