Ahoff Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Any other winter and this low track would crush us Maybe we should take it for a grain of salt (I mean of course we should), but I'd be shocked if a track like that produced anything but snow, especially since that 540 line is well to the south and east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 The euro ensembles don't look bad for the next period. Need to see the pattern develop first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The euro ensembles don't look bad for the next period. Need to see the pattern develop first. Yeah, I'm happy with anything over 2". There are a lot of those, and plenty over 6". But a 28 or 39 will do just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, I'm happy with anything over 2". There are a lot of those, and plenty over 6". But a 28 or 39 will do just fine. I’d take a 14 or 44 or maybe even a 10 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 17 hours ago, TimB said: I’d take a 14 or 44 or maybe even a 10 too. we all know that 2, 17, or 50 will verfiy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: we all know that 2, 17, or 50 will verfiy. It’ll probably be 11 to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Models are hinting at some pretty strong cold coming down on the weekend of the 27th. I think that will be our next time to maybe score something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, north pgh said: Models are hinting at some pretty strong cold coming down on the weekend of the 27th. I think that will be our next time to maybe score something. To that point, this doesn’t look half bad for an ensemble so far out. I know we’re looking for more than just an inch or two, but it’s probably not bad to have over a 1 in 4 chance of at least an inch of snow on D11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 hours ago, PghPirates27 said: we all know that 2, 17, or 50 will verfiy. Still over 2". I'll take them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Euro still likes next Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I’m encouraged by the trends. Euro has that decent advisory level storm about a week from now. I suspect that may be too early for anything good, but there’s a strong ensemble signal for something late next week. Ensembles generally show us winning the battle with the southeast ridge. Canadian ensemble looks pretty darn good even later in the period if you ask me, on the fringes of a potential Arctic outbreak in the Midwest and still away from the southeast ridge, so fingers crossed that keeps us in the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The signal for a legit winter pattern is there. I guess let's see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The signal for a legit winter pattern is there. I guess let's see what happens. 10"-15" through the end of the month, sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 At this point give me a 5-8 type storm and I'll be happy. Honestly just sick of the mud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 23 hours ago, TimB said: To that point, this doesn’t look half bad for an ensemble so far out. I know we’re looking for more than just an inch or two, but it’s probably not bad to have over a 1 in 4 chance of at least an inch of snow on D11. Honestly, it probably should be higher than 1 in 4, given the map projection. Wheeling and Morgantown are both roughly 1 in 3 chances [32 and 35 percent]. The GEFS always goes bonkers with the urban heat island effect in Pittsburgh for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/9/2023 at 10:07 AM, TimB said: @TheClimateChanger You’re usually my go-to for local climate record stuff so I’ll ask you. I’ve always assumed the January 1880 data (+15.7 temp departure relative to current normals with zero measurable snow, both all time records) was fake but I’m starting to reconsider that now that I see places like Columbus and Cincinnati were in a similar ballpark for temp departures. Is there a chance it could be real? Probably the warmest January on record locally, but obviously somewhat inflated. Cincinnati's 19th century and early 20th century observations are also inflated - while that area is somewhat lower in elevation generally being downstream on the Ohio River, the move from downtown to the fringe suburbs was accompanied by a similar elevation jump as in Pittsburgh with the move to the two airports. The weather bureau continued to take records downtown until, I believe, 1971, and from 1952-1971, the downtown station averaged 2.6 degrees warmer than Pittsburgh International Airport. And AGC averages about 0.6F warmer than PIT over the past couple of decades, although the last couple years it's been somewhat greater than that. The 19th century records seem to have other biases, probably from the rooftop siting. Could be 3-5 degrees warmer than modern records, which would suggest that month may have been more like 39.5-41.5 if measured at PIT using modern equipment. Probably still good for #1. September 1881 is another month that's obviously "juiced up". Almost certainly was the warmest September, but the measurement biases elevate it so much that even with global warming, I doubt we'll see that "official" figure beaten. Certainly not in our lifetimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Euro gives us a decent snow with the Sun-Mon storm and misses us well to the east with the one later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Atleast we are possibly back to tracking. We need something at this point even if it's an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Atleast we are possibly back to tracking. We need something at this point even if it's an advisory level event. GFS vs Euro/CMC. GFS hasn't budged for a day now, so for now will have to give it the advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: GFS vs Euro/CMC. GFS hasn't budged for a day now, so for now will have to give it the advantage. So advantage at 18z to a model that cuts both storms in a way that absolutely sucks for us and gives us less than an inch combined. I’m ready for more misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Anyhow, my bar for next week is set pretty low. 3-4” combined from the two storms would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: GFS vs Euro/CMC. GFS hasn't budged for a day now, so for now will have to give it the advantage. GFS has been the worst performing model this winter. It's consistency doesn't equal being correct. The Euro has been giving us hope these last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I don't exactly love the Sunday/Monday setup. We're basically threading-the-needle in a marginal airmass. The 850 vort passes almost right overhead, which is never a good sign. The only thing trying to help is a weak looking 50/50 lowering heights out ahead of the system. In this winter, it's hard to expect all that much. I'm inclined to expect the boundary to setup further north of us because that's been the trend all season and there's no real blocking. The Euro and Canadian are deeper systems than the GFS. That's the saving grace right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 TWC doesn’t like anything for Pittsburgh for sun/Monday. I seem to remember 2020 being the year of the Euro model reigning supreme even though everyone thought most of their projections were out in left field…. Might be misremembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 TWC is a joke and I don't watch them anymore. Only concerned about ratings. National fearmongering. Local forecasts are very general. As far as this week goes...we have 2 storms to track. Sunday night and Tuesday night. I'll be happy with a couple of inches on each one but maybe one of them can turn into something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Pretty much certain that we’ll make it through Saturday without a 2” daily snowfall since last March, which would be 300 days without a 2” snowfall. This will be the 9th time this century (23 years, 9/23 = 39%). Prior to 2000, that occurred 16 times in 120 years (16/120 = 13%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Euro is a winner with the Wednesday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Euro is a winner with the Wednesday storm. Nice to see the Euro and GFS agreeing this far out. Even the CMC wants to transfer to the coast, just too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Call me crazy but I think we may actually finally get some accumulating snow. Now whether that's 2 or 3 inches or 12+ from both storms is yet to be figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now