Ahoff Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: Looks like no dice on thunder in the immediate Pittsburgh area today, at least not that I heard, and no dice on a record high. PIT topped out at 60, well short of the record of 65. Good it’s all trash for January, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Models show the cold coming back next week. Hopefully it will bring in some storm potentials to break this boring stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Models show the cold coming back next week. Hopefully it will bring in some storm potentials to break this boring stretch. Yeah, definitely need to firm this ground up at least. Hopefully one of these vorts produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, north pgh said: Models show the cold coming back next week. Hopefully it will bring in some storm potentials to break this boring stretch. Yeah, at least a chance starting this weekend. Fast flow though will likely play havoc with modeling so something might pop up in the short range while longer range things will be tougher than usual to nail down. Certainly agree this is boring, hate wasting prime tracking time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It's mostly what we'd expect out of a third-year Nina, honestly. We need this thing to die for one: It looks to break down towards the middle or end of next week, if models can be believed. There are coastal signals in that range, but for now it remains a fantasy. A broad trough might set up over the East, +PNA (or a hybrid) and less zonal look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 15 hours ago, jwilson said: It's mostly what we'd expect out of a third-year Nina, honestly. We need this thing to die for one: It looks to break down towards the middle or end of next week, if models can be believed. There are coastal signals in that range, but for now it remains a fantasy. A broad trough might set up over the East, +PNA (or a hybrid) and less zonal look. Yeah, absolutely scouring out the cold. Does look to relax somewhat, really need that low to retrograde west to the Aleutians to get an -epo / +PNA, at least then we could get some continental modified PAC flow. Who knows how long any relax lasts though, might only be 10 days before this base state takes over again. Feb Nina's aren't great going off of climo so who knows. Really hope we can break out of this 3 year Nina into an ElNino for next season. Really sucks to see storms with decent tracks still be rain, or even situations we could get a front thump / slop storm just be straight 40s and rain. While not preferred those slop events are at least trackable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Lol middle of January with a decent storm track and gfs is showing .75 inches of rain. Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol middle of January with a decent storm track and gfs is showing .75 inches of rain. Yikes SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Looking like MLK is our next chance. Euro and GFS are currently worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 hours ago, Ecanem said: Looking like MLK is our next chance. Euro and GFS are currently worlds apart. Watch that end up as a monster coastal storm and we either get fringed or stay cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Watch that end up as a monster coastal storm and we either get fringed or stay cold and dry. The Euro’s depiction is even more frustrating than that. It’s a storm that rolls through the Deep South while we somehow still get into the 40s even with that storm track well south of us. This is getting comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Also, today’s low so far is 33. If PIT doesn’t get to 32 by midnight tonight, and it’ll be close, it will be the first time since observations moved to the airport that we’ve started a year with 6 days without a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This is how we get more snow in spring than in winter. Spring snows aren't enjoyable because they don't last, they are inconvenient at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12Z GFS is more interesting, hopefully something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: 12Z GFS is more interesting, hopefully something to track. Maybe not the most believable evolution, but we’re in the game. CMC isn’t horrific either, but it’s more of a rain to minor snowfall event here with a monster storm that drops 2-3 feet in interior SNE. But that bullseye was in VA/NC on the 0z run, so there’s still a lot to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GFS is super weird, but don't think I won't take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 My primary concern with the threat next weekend is a ridge axis that's too far east. That could theoretically be overcome with a negative-tilt bomb. The GFS shows a triple stacked low occluded off the coast that retrogrades, but the airmass preceding it is only marginally cold, and it retrogrades so far that it essentially fetches the easterlies off the ocean and warms us up. We have some of the right pieces in place. However, we don't have a true block (+NAO) other than that 50/50 which is trying to provide the confluence, and there's not much cold air nearby in Canada. Maybe some in Ontario/Quebec, but most is confined to the arctic. We'd want that high pressing down to be closer. For now, I'd say the coastal locations are in a slightly better spot, because a massive bomb is always less likely than something that's a little more progressive. But honestly they can lose this because of marginal temperatures and a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, jwilson said: My primary concern with the threat next weekend is a ridge axis that's too far east. That could theoretically be overcome with a negative-tilt bomb. The GFS shows a triple stacked low occluded off the coast that retrogrades, but the airmass preceding it is only marginally cold, and it retrogrades so far that it essentially fetches the easterlies off the ocean and warms us up. We have some of the right pieces in place. However, we don't have a true block (+NAO) other than that 50/50 which is trying to provide the confluence, and there's not much cold air nearby in Canada. Maybe some in Ontario/Quebec, but most is confined to the arctic. We'd want that high pressing down to be closer. For now, I'd say the coastal locations are in a slightly better spot, because a massive bomb is always less likely than something that's a little more progressive. But honestly they can lose this because of marginal temperatures and a retreating high. That was my take, the stall \ retrograde would be fun to watch if we had a cold antecedent airmass. Those retrograding situations rarely happen though and your point about the ridge is on point, seeing that I expected this to be much further offshore. Only thing saving it was getting some northern stream phasing going on, but if that's less and the storm is weaker more progressive it probably can't tap what marginal cold is available and it will rain on the coast. Almost a lose lose situation for those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: That was my take, the stall \ retrograde would be fun to watch if we had a cold antecedent airmass. Those retrograding situations rarely happen though and your point about the ridge is on point, seeing that I expected this to be much further offshore. Only thing saving it was getting some northern stream phasing going on, but if that's less and the storm is weaker more progressive it probably can't tap what marginal cold is available and it will rain on the coast. Almost a lose lose situation for those guys. Exactly, it's a thread-the-needle storm for the coast as of now. We have a little more wiggle room, I think, because if it did occlude and pull west, or even just go negative tilt, we're slightly closer to the cold air source (as weak as it is) and are less susceptible to ocean influences, in general. However, we'd probably like to see more cold air either in place or nearby. The local boundaries can change, but it's unlikely we suddenly find a big pool of cold air to tap. Of course the Euro shows a cutter which matches seasonal trends, so ya know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 NAM gives 2” Monday morning. Would be a nice birthday surprise for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Ehhh until we get within two days of any threat I can't really get excited for anything this winter. Just seems like one of those years where it just doesn't wanna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 And right on cue our next threat is now a cutter. On to the next one, cutters never trend back. Like this is somehow rain in the middle of January That pacific jet needs to die soon or else January may have to be punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 hours ago, Ahoff said: NAM gives 2” Monday morning. Would be a nice birthday surprise for me. I guess we shouldn't look past this, marginal cold but it's coming at night so maybe a shot to add some snow to the seasonal total. It's more like a Match snow, hope it hits overnight but will melt quickly the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I’m cheering for the cold for the backyard ice rink, but what I’m seeing is last week of January at best. That’s a bummer considering spring starts Feb 20th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looks like the next little threat may slide under AGH County. Something to watch as the short range models come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Come on Canadian! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Most would sign in blood at this point. Gfs went the opposite direction of this at 6z. Can't believe this is a week away still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I fully expected models to struggle in this progressive flow, but the run to run changes even inside days 3-5 especially on the GFS have been dizzying to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 22 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like the next little threat may slide under AGH County. Something to watch as the short range models come in. Looks like that trend has continued. I'm actually rooting it just stays dry at this point. Personally I have no use for a slop slush dusting that melts by 9am anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like that trend has continued. I'm actually rooting it just stays dry at this point. Personally I have no use for a slop slush dusting that melts by 9am anyways. Really looks as though some of these minute shifts of the mesos trended slightly north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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