TheClimateChanger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Could be worse. At least a small shift down and we're in, and if not it might not be heavy snow, but it should still be snow. Well, this seems a little bit optimistic, no? I don't think anywhere near us is actually going to see "heavy snow" except up by the Lake Erie shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Well... I guess the 18z GFS sees the possibility of up to 24" in northwest Butler County, at least on these inflated Kuchera maps. Although I have no idea how the model is coming up with that amount. The whole map looks bizarre and splotchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On the Kuchera maps at hour 63, it hasn't even started snowing anywhere near Grove City. Three hours later, it shows 10 inches. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: On the Kuchera maps at hour 63, it hasn't even started snowing anywhere near Grove City. Three hours later, it shows 10 inches. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. I'd probably just use 10:1 maps from a 24 hour period 12z Friday - 12z Saturday and see what that looks like. That's our most likely period to see accumulating snow I'd say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I still think we are looking at a solid 1-3 and like Trout said it will be blown around so much that there will be grassy areas uncovered but some drifting in spots. At least the ground will be white for Christmas eve with temps in the single digits. As far as the snow goes it will be a minor event the will all come down early Friday morning and then light snow showers blowing around the rest of the day. What I am looking forward to is the extreme change and temps when the front comes thru. I am old enough to remember a front in the mid to late 70's when I was in high school where we had white out conditions for an hour or so and the temp dropped from the 40's to single digits in several hours. I remember it was hard to look out our kitchen windows because the wet spots froze up with the quick temp change. I say make sure you are up Friday morning and watch the front come thru. Who knows, you might even hear a clap of thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'd probably just use 10:1 maps from a 24 hour period 12z Friday - 12z Saturday and see what that looks like. That's our most likely period to see accumulating snow I'd say. I agree. People knock 10:1 maps, but it's really much better for comparing run to run differences. Even so it probably will have some changeover timing issues, with how quick the front is moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Well, this seems a little bit optimistic, no? I don't think anywhere near us is actually going to see "heavy snow" except up by the Lake Erie shoreline. Well, the risk of heavy snow is not far away, and it doesn't discount the possibility of a brief period of heavy snow as the cold air collapses in. I don't think anyone is expecting a foot of heavy snow. It's just saying the risk is there. We'll still likely see some snow, let's just enjoy that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I'd take this although probably a little over done Realistically do we want this to trend to be stronger or what's our best case here lol. If the secondary trends stronger, wouldn't it cause the upper atmosphere to cool quicker for us and allow temps to drop even before the front moves in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I agree. People knock 10:1 maps, but it's really much better for comparing run to run differences. Even so it probably will have some changeover timing issues, with how quick the front is moving through. I usually just look at total qpf after sounding supports snow. When we get closer in time sometimes bufkit / Cobb data etc. Skew-ts are a great visual of the column and lift in the dgz. All the snow algorithms have their issues and work best under a certain situations. Throw in temporal resolution issues in change over situations (think a model sounding supports snow at hour 3 and so assumes everything that falls between hour 3 and 6 is snow when in reality a warm nose punches through at hour 4) and you have a recipe for disappointment. Don't get me wrong, I love to look at those maps when they show a big hit and if I'm in a hurry they are a good summary of what the model shows but especially in marginal temperatures and change over situations need a few grains of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Ehh going to bed now since I gotta be up at 2 but my guess is 1-2 with one more likely. Who knows once the front comes through if we get any Lake effect or a sneaky wave but the storm itself looks like it gets going too late which cuts back the backend snow. Unless this changes I don't see us getting anything more than maybe a coating-inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The other shoe has finally dropped. GFS is coming in line with other models on our lack of snow potential. Ceiling can’t be more than an inch and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'd take this and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 TBH, we may not really know how much will fall until about 8-12 hours before the event. Mesoscale models will be key. It does seem that the door has been closed on more than 3" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 This is a weenie model, but it shows the potential that exists for some really heavy snow at the backend of the front. Even if it's short lived, it could get us to 2" in short order. I do suspect that moisture will be cut off quickly, once any dynamic lift shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Maybe it back builds somehow lol. That's usually how we overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 That NAM total looked decent. Still "long range" NAM, but not 84 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'll go back to my original comment. White Christmas with an inch or two on the ground, anything after that is gravy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: TBH, we may not really know how much will fall until about 8-12 hours before the event. Mesoscale models will be key. It does seem that the door has been closed on more than 3" though I agree, other than a quick cursory check its not worth over analyzing anything until tomorrow afternoon / evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Storm aside, very sad day for Pittsburgh. RIP to Franco Harris. Will be a much different event at the game on Christmas Eve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I always like the check the SREFs. Not the most reliable, but still fun to look at. Hovering right around 1" of snow. All falling with the passage of the front. The temps will be brutal by midday and not much change for 48 hours. Very impressive for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Looks like the NWS got their excuse not to put up Friday snowfall maps yet, with the small amount of front end ice in the higher elevations tomorrow being the threat their maps address. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Should have relocated to Buffalo this year. Some places are going to have upwards of 200" and it's not even January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 As for this storm, GFS ensemble plumes suggest a quick inch of snow of the anafront variety. Maybe a little more additional (0.5") from lingering snow showers. That's more or less inline with the OP. It's going to come down to nowcasting because of potential resolution issues on the models, and I imagine the temp change / gusting winds will limit dendrite growth somewhat. That's a -40F temp departure and winds of up to 20 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NWS won't even give us a wind chill advisory, lol. We'll have 0 degree temps and 50 mph winds, but no advisory, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: NWS won't even give us a wind chill advisory, lol. We'll have 0 degree temps and 50 mph winds, but no advisory, crazy. NWS will give us a wind chill advisory. I give that a 99% chance. Wind chill is progged to be below the -10 threshold for like 24 hours straight at PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ahoff said: NWS won't even give us a wind chill advisory, lol. We'll have 0 degree temps and 50 mph winds, but no advisory, crazy. At minimum it's 36 hours lead time. So probably they will go up this evening or tommorow morning Edit: at maximum 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: At minimum it's 36 hours lead time. So probably they will go up this evening or tommorow morning CTP hoisted a wind chill watch this afternoon so I anticipate PBZ could possibly do the same for continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Looking a little longer range, there’s a solid chance the final day of the year will get above 50 for the 8th(!) time this century. Almost coin flip territory these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: NWS will give us a wind chill advisory. I give that a 99% chance. Wind chill is progged to be below the -10 threshold for like 24 hours straight at PIT. Wind chill watch was just issued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Wind chill watch was just issued. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 235 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CREATE MULTIPLE HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION... PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509- 220345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/ Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette- Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Grove City, Latrobe, Weirton, Kittanning, Murrysville, Punxsutawney, New Castle, Canonsburg, Fairmont, Ambridge, Franklin, Sharon, Ford City, Butler, Lower Burrell, Morgantown, Tionesta, Washington, Monessen, Monaca, Wellsburg, Brookville, Waynesburg, Wheeling, Oil City, Hermitage, Clarion, New Martinsville, Aliquippa, Moundsville, Greensburg, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ellwood City, Beaver Falls, Follansbee, and New Kensington 235 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected Friday through Saturday afternoon. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Strong winds could produce damage to trees and power lines, resulting in scattered power outages. Winds may gust over 40 mph Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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