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Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21


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Mesoscale Discussion 1957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

   Areas affected...extreme western New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 180658Z - 181300Z

   SUMMARY...2+ inch/hr snowfall rates are expected to continue with
   the primary snow band into the mid-morning hours, promoting
   near-zero visibility and crippling travel conditions.

   DISCUSSION...A mature snow band, roughly 300 km in length, persists
   over Lake Erie and is continuing to produce 2+ inch/hr snowfall
   rates over and just to the south and east of Buffalo, NY.
   Unidirectional vertical wind profiles oriented parallel to Lake
   Erie's long axis suggest that the snow band should remain stationary
   and continue benefiting from a long fetch of ample low-level
   moisture. In addition, colder temperatures aloft overspreading Lake
   Erie continue to foster 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates and 250 J/kg
   SBCAPE per 06Z mesoanalysis. 

   Given a near-saturated, relatively deep dendritic growth zone and
   the aforementioned buoyancy, bouts of low-topped convection (perhaps
   with occasional lightning flashes) should continue to accompany the
   snow band, along with 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates, particularly with
   areas closest to the shoreline, where the buoyancy resides. The last
   few runs of the HRRR and 00Z HREF ensemble guidance also suggest
   that the snow band and accompanying 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates should
   persist into at least mid-morning, with crippling travel conditions
   and occasional bouts of near-zero visibility expected.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2022
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