Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, wxcwman said: When does the main event start Looks like winds have shifted to SW over the west end of L Erie so I would think a few more hours for a new band to fully form. So around 7pm is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 18Z HRRR with almost 6" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 NAM finally hopped on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BEGINS THIS EVENING... All the ingredients are in place for a major lake effect snowstorm, with more than ample lake induced instability, a cap averaging 12- 15k ft with EQLs near 20 kft, and periodic shortwaves which will provide additional moisture. Leading shortwave moved through earlier and stronger wave is crossing central Great Lakes. This wave is already enhancing lake convection near CLE and this is what is shown to lift across the eastern basin of Lake Erie to ignite a prolonged and high-impact lake effect event as winds become southwest. The lake effect snow band with look of a mesolow along it will move rapidly northward, reaching the Buffalo metro area 8 to 9 pm this evening. The band will remain across the Buffalo area, but will meander slightly south late tonight following the passage of the shortwave. Moisture from the shortwave and the long fetch down Lake Erie will support a very intense band with snowfall rates of 3+"/hr and some lightning strikes. Initially this band will be oriented downtown Buffalo to the airport, but it does look to settle slightly to the south after midnight toward Southtowns before slowly easing back northward toward daybreak. By daybreak Friday, much of northern Erie county, except the Northtowns will be looking at snow amounts of a foot to a foot and a half. Heavy snow currently impacting Oswego county to the Tug Hill will reach Watertown shortly after midnight, with heavy lake snows impacting the northern half of Jefferson County after midnight. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr and some lightning strikes are expected. Moving into Friday, First off Lake Erie... A SW flow will direct a singular band of heavy lake effect snow up Lake Erie and inland across the City of Buffalo...the airport and out towards Batavia to start the morning. This band will remain fairly stationary through early afternoon though there could be some varying persistence to the band, so this will still need to be monitored. There is now good agreement on a shortwave trough crossing. Though subtle this will veer winds just enough to push main focus for the heavy snow band toward the Southtowns with some improvement from Buffalo to the airport. Some models are quite aggressive with this southern push. However, local knowledge is once the band becomes developed, it is very hard to push it too far south. This will have to be re-evaluated later tonight into Friday morning though. The strong convergence enhanced by the attempt at the band drifting south will result in impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet. This as the band of snow will be oriented along the long axis of the lake will produce very intense snowfall rates of over 3 inches per hour in the heart of the band. Eventually the approaching of stronger trough over the western Great Lakes will back winds enough to push the band back toward downtown Buffalo and the airport by Friday evening. At this point, putting in a bit more southward push compared to previous forecast, the highest totals into Friday evening are expected in a corridor from South Buffalo to Lancaster. For what it`s worth the snowfall record Friday for Buffalo is 8.2 inches set back in November 2000...a lake effect snow event that preceded the big November 20- 23rd event that left many stranded and produced the greatest November daily snowfall of 24.9 inches on the 20th. Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs when the lake is still warm as it is here with values in the lower 50s at the top of end of what is typical for mid November. We attempted to show this gradient more in our snow forecasts, especially overnight tonight into Friday as the band is forecast to reach its maturity. Main result was to slightly lower amounts north of a line from downtown Buffalo to the airport. For latest forecasted official snow amounts and potential ranges and probabilities see weather.gov/buf/winter. No change to keeping the thunder mention given EQLs around 20kft. The snowband will begin to drift northward Friday night as a shortwave trough drops towards the western end of Lake Erie. The backing winds will drive the heart of the snowband up towards Niagara County, while also brushing by Orleans. No changes in headlines with bulk of heavy snow for Niagara county occurring Saturday into Saturday evening. Behind this shortwave winds will veer, rather quickly and send the plume of lake snow southward passing Buffalo late Saturday night...and down towards the Buffalo southtowns and Ski Country by the end of the night. This is a quicker trend than it looked a couple days ago. This will eventually result in a shortening of our warning times. We won`t get ahead of things just yet though. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Erie down across Ski Country and the Southern Tier. This is a bit faster with the southward push, leaving the metro Buffalo area with very little if any snowfall during the day Sunday. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s, and around 30F near the Lake shoreline. Off Lake Ontario... Friday the lake effect snowband will be established over central and northern Jefferson County to start the day. The strong convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow to continue through the day across Jefferson County with the snowfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour. The axis of greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown and towards Philadelphia. Late Friday into Friday night still seems to be when highest rates will occur. Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband is remains evident and will enhance the snows over Jefferson County. Here snowfall totals will also be measured in feet, and warning continues without any modifications. The snow band initially clipping southern Lewis with warning amounts this evening will then eventually clip the northern portion of the county Friday and Friday night well to the north of Lowville. Certainly a potential for thunder to occur within the more intense portion of the Lake snowband as well as the taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to occur. Ahead of a deeper shortwave trough, winds will back late Friday night and into Saturday sending the snowband up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley and maybe for a time completely out of Jefferson county so have lowered snow amounts during this time. By Saturday night this upstream connection to Lake Erie will merge back into the Lake Ontario band, with the snow band structure increasing in strength...this as it drops southward across Jefferson County and northern Lewis. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Ontario down towards Oswego County, where a more impressive band of snow may develop with an upstream connection to Georgian Bay. Depending upon if this connection materializes, there could be at least advisory level snow amounts during the day Sunday to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Models continue to trend upward. Will need to watch this as time goes on. Off Lake Erie, snow amounts will be less. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Off both Lakes...West winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35 mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few hundred feet, especially in the vcnty of the strongest bands of snow. Travel late tonight and through Friday night will be very difficult if not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Bills game moved to Detroit 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bills game moved to Detroit Wtf! That really sucks!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bills game moved to Detroit That's BS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 That's BSRadar brightening up over the Lake. So jealous. Enjoy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Radar brightening up over the Lake. So jealous. Enjoy .Beautiful plume. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Everyone feel free to post as much as you can in here, love looking back at big events. Got over 325 new followers on Twitter today lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 It is minutes from starting at this point for the BUF area! I can only imagine what it feels like being there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: It is minutes from starting at this point for the BUF area! I can only imagine what it feels like being there. Just got my pre lift gym session in and going chasing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 My Twitter posting updates and videos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Awesome. Its finally happening. Here we go everyone. From Downtown Buffalo wishing everyone a fun and safe LES event. Look forward to everyone's experience that is up here and posting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 FWIW looks like Brett Adair is in Buffalo but I can't get any stream to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Thundersnow on the feed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just had lightning!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Big-time LE event getting ready to start ---- I am wishing all of you up there in the Snow Zone the very best! Stay safe, and enjoy it to the FULL! Maybe the forecasters up there are dead WRONG! Maybe this lake effect event will turn out to be one for the all-time record books and last a couple of weeks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, eyewall said: Lookin at this - It is as though I were right there in Buffalo NY lookin out the window! I subscribed to you long ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, eyewall said: Where is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, SyracuseStorm said: Wtf! That really sucks!!! I hope the Bills plane was able to get out of there already. Going to be hard going forward to get a window to fly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Where is this? Lackawanna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I hope the Bills plane was able to get out of there already. Going to be hard going forward to get a window to fly out. They are flying out tomorrow Saturday!!! Wtf Then flying back after the game so the players can be with their families before flying back Tuesday/Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: They are flying out tomorrow Saturday!!! Wtf Then flying back after the game so the players can be with their families before flying back Tuesday/Wednesday That plane may not get out if they are leaving on saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 833 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 NYZ001-002-010>012-020-021-085-180230- Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Southern Erie NY-Wyoming NY-Orleans NY- Genesee NY-Niagara NY-Northern Erie NY- 833 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING... HAZARDS...An area of heavy lake effect snow will continue to move northeast across much of the Niagara Frontier this evening, including all of the Buffalo Metro area. This initial wide area of moderate to heavy snow will drop a quick few inches across much of the area. Following this first burst of snow, a more narrow, focused band of heavy lake effect snow will develop in the Buffalo Metro area late this evening. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Batavia, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster, Hamburg, East Aurora, Medina, Albion, Williamsville and Darien Lakes State Park. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 57A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 There was at least one decent couplet in this band. Snowwrapped waterspout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Huge lightning on that live feed posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Buffalo airport got 3 inches already in that one hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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