Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM

[sbnwx85]

Good luck and enjoy! Will be watching from the Lake Michigan snow belt in South Bend.

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This looks to be a 3/4 part event. RGEM showing 20" for the southtowns tomorrow night/thursday

This appears to be the time that if we are to get anything meaningful in northern Onondaga/southern Oswego counties it will happen before the band moves north.  Not expecting anything blockbusters but it would be nice to at least have a couple of inches on the ground. 

[BeauDodson]

Interesting setup for LES.  I remember the 2000 event.  Incredible totals.

Quite a bit of thundersnow.

I'm thinking about chasing this one. 

[wolfie09]

AccuWeather 4-6 feet..

[wolfie09]

Rgem in typical fashion gives us 2"+ of liquid precipitation by Friday Eve before the band lifts north.. Unfortunately thermal looks marginal for beginning of this event..

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

AccuWeather 4-6 feet..

[wolfie09]

Case in point..lol

[BuffaloWeather]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Case in point..lol

maybe the strength of the band can overcome the thermals? 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If anyone wants an invite to the discord, please send me a PM. Trying to keep it strictly upstate/great lakes posters/chasers. We have 48 posters that have joined so far. 

What's the discord?

[Chinook]

NWS-WPC has 2"-3" of total QPF (120 hours) just offshore from Jamestown NY/Erie PA with 1.9"-2.1" for Erie and the Southtowns of Buffalo.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Fresh off the press

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

Big picture is that the significant, high-end lake effect event off
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario remains on track Thursday night through
much of the weekend. There are some subtle differences in steering
flow that could impact northern extent of band on Friday especially.

Deep H5 trough Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes remains in place
Fri/Sat before becoming negative tilted as it shifts across New
England on Sunday. In low-levels sfc-H85 low remains across northern
Ontario toward Hudson Bay Friday into Saturday with H85 temps at or
below -9c. Given water temps averaging 10-12c, this will ensure
ample over-water instability with inversions increasing to around
10kft and EQLs a bit higher. Deep moisture advects across the
lakes Thu night into Fri night in wake of a shortwave working
across the lower Great Lakes. This shortwave will also ignite
the lake effect off Lake Erie, rather abruptly after the lake
effect on Thursday begins to diminish and soon thereafter to the
northeast of Lake Ontario. There is increasing consensus this
well developed lake band forms early to mid evening off Erie,
but probably just after the tail end of the evening commute.
Then, as we typically see it will start 6 hr or so later off
Lake Ontario.

We are still pretty far out in time from the heart of the event, so
forecasts will continue to refine placement of where heaviest snow
bands develop. But, there is no change to the thinking that KBUF and
KART metro areas are favored, especially later Thursday night
through Friday night. This event has some historical precedence,
with latest CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became
stranded in their vehicles or the more recent twin storms that made
`Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow. The pattern
suggests this type of high-impact event could occur, but at
this point it is impossible to suggest the same magnitude for
the upcoming event. Local studies from the KBUF office do
support a high-end event with stark similarities in the
expected synoptic pattern and for those larger events. The
largest events have near stationary plumes of snow with a very
sharp northern edge to the band between a ton of snow and very
little, but it is still too early to get that detailed. A
pattern that certainly favors thunder so kept this in off both
lakes as well.

Looking more into steering flow, there is decent agreement on a 250-
260 flow backing more to 240-250 flow rest of the night Thursday
night which points to band off Lake Erie from Southtowns to
downtown Buffalo to Cheektowaga and on into Genesee county. Peak
snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour set up late Thursday night.
Into Friday, flow starts day 240 so again, Buffalo downtown and
into the Northtowns and possibly lifting into southern portions
of Niagara and Orleans counties. Band of snow will diminish to
the south of the Southtowns and likely shut off alltogether
across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. So our watch ends
there at that time.

Later Friday is where things get a bit muddled. Generally the
usually preferred Canadian shows a sharper shortwave crossing
and veers winds enough to push us back to a 250-260 flow. Other
guidance not on board. Trended ever so slightly toward Canadian
idea, but mainly kept the band with 2-3" per hour rates downtown
Buffalo to airport with several inches on into western Genesee
county but it feasibly could slip back toward the Southtowns if
the Canadian idea is correct. Friday night, there is potential
that winds back enough ahead of stronger wave that arrives later
in the weekend to push band more into Niagara and Orleans
counties. Thus, have expanded the watch into those counties as
a result. These details will continue to be refined as we move
into the warning phase of this event. Turning to Lake Ontario,
generally the flow Friday/Friday night and even Saturday will be
230-240, so this appears to be a Watertown/Fort Drum and far
northern Jefferson county event. Hit this message in our WSW
statement. Preliminary looking more at one to two feet for those
areas of northern Jefferson compared to the multiple feet
possible for the band off Lake Erie.

Later Saturday into Saturday night is when the well developed band
appears to be most favored to lift into far western Niagara county
or even Canada as sharper re-inforcing upper level and sfc trough
dig across the western Great Lakes.  This shift to the west of the
band is brief though as sharp trough crosses on Sunday. Strong nw
flow will sweep southward across both lakes, resulting in brief but
heavy snow at times as the main band sweeps quickly southward.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the
late this weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow
is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This
would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with
additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond
when our initial watches end.

[Speedskater]

Sunday afternoon weather is of interest to Clevelanders. If the wind is out of the West, it will be a snowbowl football game.

[BuffaloWeather]

18z NAM goes a little south with the band. The band is still going for 2-3 days after the end of this run. Not sure what ratios will be but early season events are usually lower than later season events when the lake and air is colder. Probably looking at 1:13-1:16 ratios. 

 

 

 

 

[Weather Mike]

4 minutes ago, Speedskater said:

Sunday afternoon weather is of interest to Clevelanders. If the wind is out of the West, it will be a snowbowl football game.

game in Buffalo so hope its still going to be played because I plan to attend 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, Speedskater said:

Sunday afternoon weather is of interest to Clevelanders. If the wind is out of the West, it will be a snowbowl football game.

I got season tickets so I'll be there as well. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The RGEM with an insane run. 5" of QPF over my house. The band will still be going for 48 hours after this run ends. 

[Weather Mike]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The RGEM with an insane run. 5" of QPF over my house. The band will still be going for 48 hours after this run ends. 

Thanks for sharing these model runs.

I got my flight and land late Thursday morning to enjoy this possible historical event

[CNY_WX]

If that band is still sitting over Orchard Park on Sunday what’s the possibility that the game is either called off or played in an empty stadium. There would probably be a travel ban in effect at that time. 

[BuffaloWeather]

48 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

If that band is still sitting over Orchard Park on Sunday what’s the possibility that the game is either called off or played in an empty stadium. There would probably be a travel ban in effect at that time. 

There is potential for that. Some are talking about having the game in Detroit as we play Detroit on thanksgiving. 

[Weather Mike]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is potential for that. Some are talking about having the game in Detroit as we play Detroit on thanksgiving. 

Any new GFS updates on the 18Z? 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Any new GFS updates on the 18Z? 

Looks about the same, slightly south. 4" of QPF in hardest hit area. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Through Friday at 7 am

[Ericjcrash]

7 hours ago, MegaMike said:

Oh, I know . I lived in the Providence area which kinda' sucked too.

I'm in Latham if I had to be exact. Just by the airport. Any recommendations on what to do? I'm still exploring the area. 

Originally, I'm from MA, but I've lived in RI, CT, VT, NY, and NC over the past 10 years. It's been a crazy ride!

Latham I don't frequent casually/personally. My company is based out of there so that's my only reason to go down. I can not recommend Grano in Schenectady enough. Best pasta in the world, and I'm from NYC and had pasta all over Italy. 

[andyhb]

Just chiming in to say this one looks like a doozy, certainly haven't seen this type of potential since Nov 2014. Duration might exceed that and the thermos shouldn't be terribly far off thanks to the record lake temperatures. Looks a potential once-in-a-decade type event if not larger.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Just chiming in to say this one looks like a doozy, certainly haven't seen this type of potential since Nov 2014. Duration might exceed that and the thermos shouldn't be terribly far off thanks to the record lake temperatures. Looks a potential once-in-a-decade type event if not larger.

If I wasn't excited before I'm officially excited now. Lake effect king called for 40"+ this morning in our discord. What are your thoughts on lightning, band placement/strength, residence time? I might be too far south for this one. Trying to figure out my game plan as my dad lives near the airport and might be better positioned.

[cleetussnow]

Lets do this.  I think Chautauqua was the winner last time with 65 inches.   
 

Its well short of the unofficial state record which I think was Redfield in 2007.  11 plus feet?  But 66 will do.  

 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Lets do this.  I think Chautauqua was the winner last time with 65 inches.   
 

Its well short of the unofficial state record which I think was Redfield in 2007.  11 plus feet?  But 66 will do.  

 

Elma ny had 98” in November 2014, I had 88” here. Buffalo airport record is dec 2001 event at 82”. 2007 is biggest event on record at tug hill 10 day totals of 140”

[CNY_WX]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Elma ny had 98” in November 2014, I had 88” here. Buffalo airport record is dec 2001 event at 82”. 2007 is biggest event on record at tug hill 10 day totals of 140”