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Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21


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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well not really anymore :)  I still do it every 6 hrs since that is what first order stations do. I believe it is now once a day, unless you have changing ptypes. Don't get me started. 

Yeah that seems really dumb to me. You know how much snow compacts in 24 hours? I prefer at least every 12, 6 might be a little too much but I measured 56" and have 43" on the ground. Seems about right to me with compaction.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah that seems really dumb to me. You know how much snow compacts in 24 hours? I prefer at least every 12, 6 might be a little too much but I measured 56" and have 43" on the ground. Seems about right to me with compaction.

That looks right.

 

But it's why snow measuring is a joke. We aren't even consistent and I agree...once a day is silly...especially high ratio stuff. I typically do in between 6-12 hrs too...or whenever I have the chance. 

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Just now, Parsley said:

@BuffaloWeatherthanks for all your posts/videos/tweets/streams, etc. 

It doesn’t get any better than what you are witnessing, east of the Rockies. Enjoy!

 

 

Thank you! Its a lot of work but I've looked back countless times at Nov 2014 and want as much content as possible. I have about 15 videos to upload to youtube that are insane. Working on that the next few hours.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What's your total so far?

I actually don’t know. The hardware store was closed. If I had to guess though, somewhere around 27-28? Area just to my east reported 36 earlier. I don’t think I’ve see that much even with compaction. 

For my location, an excellent event that could be better if we don’t fumble tonight-Sunday AM. This afternoon was a bust but it could have been a lot worse. I was right on the line.

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That band isn't moving. You can watch my fence completely disappear soon.

...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA...
CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...GENESEE...AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility
to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is
producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 320 PM EST, a lake effect snow band was
centered from the shoreline of Chautauqua county to Hamburg, Elma to
Batavia. The band will remain nearly stationary through 5 pm, then
oscillate a little to the south through early evening.
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38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The models show another 2-3 feet by tomorrow night.

Think the band stays over southtowns long enough for that? Seems like a lot of movement (noticeably north) tomorrow, then a relatively quick hit on Sunday as it comes back down and swings through.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
...Intense Lake Effect Snow Continues...

Two intense plumes of lake effect snow with snowfall rates of at
least 2-3 inches per hour will continue northeast of the lakes
through tonight. Periodic thundersnow will remain possible near
the lakes through tonight, as well as areas of blowing snow with
winds gusting to 35 mph.

Lake Erie snow band remains generally steady state this afternoon
with the main axis of the band from the shoreline of Chautauqua
county inland through southern Erie county into western
Wyoming/southern Genesee counties. There may be some northward
oscillation through late afternoon, reaching the city of Buffalo
and the Airport at times, but for the most part the band should
remain where it is through at least mid evening. It continues
to look like the areas north of the city of Buffalo and the
Airport will receive little in the way of snowfall, at least
through mid to late evening.

Snow bands focused across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties will
remain locked in through most of tonight with only slight southward
oscillations.

A much deeper shortwave will drop into the base of the long wave
trough over the western Great Lakes tonight, with steering winds
starting to back to more south-southwest. This will drive the
plume of lake snow up through Buffalo and Watertown and towards
Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence River by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

Lake effect snow off Lake Erie...

An intense plume of lake snow should be ongoing Saturday
morning, likely targeting the city of Buffalo, the Buffalo
Northtowns and Batavia. Steering flow will continue to back to
through the day with the lake band weakening as it moves across
Niagara County and western portions of Orleans county before
settling along or west of the Niagara River. Snowfall rates will
likely remain impressive early Saturday with rates of 2"/hr,
but should drop off to no more than an inch per hour by Saturday
afternoon.

Another shortwave will move across the region Saturday night, with
winds shifting to the southwest and eventually the west in its wake.
This will push the snow band back across the Buffalo metro area,
with a modest intensification likely due to the longer fetch in the
SW flow and with moisture from the shortwave. Snowfall rates of 2-
3"/hr can be expected, however the band will be mobile which will
limit additional snow accumulation amounts. Expect most areas to get
6 - 9 inches as this moves through. Will maintain the warnings
for Northern Erie and Genesee given the short time gap. A Winter
Storm Watch will remain in place for Chautauqua and Southern
Erie where there will be about an 18 hour break between the
snows.

By Sunday morning a WNW flow will direction the remaining lake snows
across the Western Southern Tier, with just some lingering snow
showers elsewhere. This may allow the warnings for N Erie and
Genesee to be dropped early. However, there still will be lingering
impacts from the storm Sunday with winds gusting to 35 mph causing
blowing and drifting snow. Also, it will be a bit colder by then so
snow Saturday night will be drier and more prone to drifting.

Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario...

Similar to Lake Erie, winds will back to the south-southwest
and direct the lake band across far northern Jefferson County
and even across the St. Lawrence and into Canada for a time.
This will provide a break for Watertown Saturday afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to the southwest late Saturday night,
causing the band to intensify as it taps into Lake Erie
moisture and moves back southward. Snowfall rates of 2"/inches
an hour will bring an additional 6 inches or so to Jefferson
county late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Winds will shift to the west Sunday, and the longer fetch and slower
band movement has the potential to produce 9" or more of snow across
Oswego County through Sunday evening. A Winter Storm Watch remains
in effect for Oswego county. Some accumulation is also likely into
Lewis and northern Cayuga counties, but not quite as much so held
off on a watch for there (but it will be close).

Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly
quiet, with a partial clearing at times. Temperatures will be below
normal, especially Sunday when highs will range from the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel like its in the teens.

Mid-level height rises occur across the Great Lakes region Monday.
Warm air advection will likely occur across the eastern Great Lakes
while winds back to the south-southwest. Snow showers will likely
linger northeast of Lake Ontario through Monday.
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