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Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21


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30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

KBUF missed the boat on this forecast. They trusted the RGEM and expected thermal troughing too much in the forecast. HRRR nailed it.

StormTotalSnow.jpg

I'm honestly surprised (though, it's an error of only a few miles), they use an extensive analog method and have it down to a relative science exactly where the bands will go with a given wind direction, and often times leaning heavy on the RGEM works. With that said, the RGEM was a little too far north with the leg of the event on our side of the lake into NE OH/NW PA Wednesday night/Thursday AM as well, and I think while the other models often place the banding too far south, sometimes the RGEM is a little too extreme in the other direction. Curious if downtown makes up some ground later tonight into tomorrow when the wind goes more SW/SSW. 

Regardless, another epic storm for your area. 

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19 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Hope more of city and airport can get into the main band.


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Starting to finally snow in downtown. Hope we can get in on the fun others more south are having. Would love to post some pics here in Downtown but not able to so far. Can only hope for the winds to change and bring that band our way

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5 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Starting to finally snow in downtown. Hope we can get in on the fun others more south are having. Would love to post some pics here in Downtown but not able to so far. Can only hope for the winds to change and bring that band our way

Does not look like it'll last long...the HRRR and most other models showed a close approach 18-20Z then the band nearly falling apart entirely for awhile this evening before re-organizing and moving over those areas 04-11Z or so.

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Does not look like it'll last long...the HRRR and most other models showed a close approach 18-20Z then the band nearly falling apart entirely for awhile this evening before re-organizing and moving over those areas 04-11Z or so.

Yep, you can see it begin to sag south after that recent push north on radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BUF-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Isn't 6 hour measurement the official way to measure? When I took my cocarahs training I believe thats what it was.

Well not really anymore :)  I still do it every 6 hrs since that is what first order stations do. I believe it is now once a day, unless you have changing ptypes. Don't get me started. 

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