BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Very wet lake effect, not normal fluff. Early season events are in the 1:12-1:16 range. Ratios are increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 My luck has seemed to run out—being on the edge yesterday and this morning allowed the area to pile up a few feet, but most of the afternoon has been quiet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Very wet lake effect, not normal fluff. Early season events are in the 1:12-1:16 range. Ratios are increasing. Some higher ratio stuff would be great if/when we can get a prolonged band through the metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well not really anymore I still do it every 6 hrs since that is what first order stations do. I believe it is now once a day, unless you have changing ptypes. Don't get me started. Yeah that seems really dumb to me. You know how much snow compacts in 24 hours? I prefer at least every 12, 6 might be a little too much but I measured 56" and have 43" on the ground. Seems about right to me with compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that seems really dumb to me. You know how much snow compacts in 24 hours? I prefer at least every 12, 6 might be a little too much but I measured 56" and have 43" on the ground. Seems about right to me with compaction. That looks right. But it's why snow measuring is a joke. We aren't even consistent and I agree...once a day is silly...especially high ratio stuff. I typically do in between 6-12 hrs too...or whenever I have the chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Was just on a local news station I'd say 43-48" depending on location in backyard. Snowing 3-4" per hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My luck has seemed to run out—being on the edge yesterday and this morning allowed the area to pile up a few feet, but most of the afternoon has been quiet. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Where are you? In between lol. All of the locals know better than me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 I've walked like 6-7 miles in the snow today. I'm beat. Ready to soak it all in with a nice beer tonight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: In between lol. All of the locals know better than me. What's your total so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 22.9" from 815-2:45pm storm total 56.8" You are getting annihilated. Wow damn near 5 FEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've walked like 6-7 miles in the snow today. I'm beat. Ready to soak it all in with a nice beer tonight. @BuffaloWeatherthanks for all your posts/videos/tweets/streams, etc. It doesn’t get any better than what you are witnessing, east of the Rockies. Enjoy! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 This stuff isn't light, be careful out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just now, Parsley said: @BuffaloWeatherthanks for all your posts/videos/tweets/streams, etc. It doesn’t get any better than what you are witnessing, east of the Rockies. Enjoy! Thank you! Its a lot of work but I've looked back countless times at Nov 2014 and want as much content as possible. I have about 15 videos to upload to youtube that are insane. Working on that the next few hours. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What's your total so far? I actually don’t know. The hardware store was closed. If I had to guess though, somewhere around 27-28? Area just to my east reported 36 earlier. I don’t think I’ve see that much even with compaction. For my location, an excellent event that could be better if we don’t fumble tonight-Sunday AM. This afternoon was a bust but it could have been a lot worse. I was right on the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 That band isn't moving. You can watch my fence completely disappear soon. ...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA... CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...GENESEE...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 320 PM EST, a lake effect snow band was centered from the shoreline of Chautauqua county to Hamburg, Elma to Batavia. The band will remain nearly stationary through 5 pm, then oscillate a little to the south through early evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 been nice to check in. these events amaze me. thanks for the links @BuffaloWeather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 I remember when they were forecasting only 2-4 feet by SUNDAY. Here it is, midafternoon FRIDAY, already coming up on 60 inches in places around Hamburg and vicinity. This is going to be truly, truly EPIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Okay man, now I am jealous as heck of all your deep snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: In between lol. All of the locals know better than me. Hopefully, the bands will work northward this evening so that you get to see more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Hopefully, the bands will work northward this evening so that you get to see more snow. I do think we’ll see more. Getting 3’ should happen, but for the higher end stuff I believe I will need tonight or early Sunday to overperform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 up and over 5 feet. will measure next at 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 up and over 5 feet. will measure next at 9.Wow…..80” easily in reach.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: up and over 5 feet. will measure next at 9. Even with the inevitable movement of the band north (and again back south), you should get another 12-18" through Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Even with the inevitable movement of the band north (and again back south), you should get another 12-18" through Sunday The models show another 2-3 feet by tomorrow night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The models show another 2-3 feet by tomorrow night. On top of what, about 55 inches already on the ground? Sounds like a massive epic snow job to me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The models show another 2-3 feet by tomorrow night. Think the band stays over southtowns long enough for that? Seems like a lot of movement (noticeably north) tomorrow, then a relatively quick hit on Sunday as it comes back down and swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ...Intense Lake Effect Snow Continues... Two intense plumes of lake effect snow with snowfall rates of at least 2-3 inches per hour will continue northeast of the lakes through tonight. Periodic thundersnow will remain possible near the lakes through tonight, as well as areas of blowing snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. Lake Erie snow band remains generally steady state this afternoon with the main axis of the band from the shoreline of Chautauqua county inland through southern Erie county into western Wyoming/southern Genesee counties. There may be some northward oscillation through late afternoon, reaching the city of Buffalo and the Airport at times, but for the most part the band should remain where it is through at least mid evening. It continues to look like the areas north of the city of Buffalo and the Airport will receive little in the way of snowfall, at least through mid to late evening. Snow bands focused across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties will remain locked in through most of tonight with only slight southward oscillations. A much deeper shortwave will drop into the base of the long wave trough over the western Great Lakes tonight, with steering winds starting to back to more south-southwest. This will drive the plume of lake snow up through Buffalo and Watertown and towards Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence River by Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Lake effect snow off Lake Erie... An intense plume of lake snow should be ongoing Saturday morning, likely targeting the city of Buffalo, the Buffalo Northtowns and Batavia. Steering flow will continue to back to through the day with the lake band weakening as it moves across Niagara County and western portions of Orleans county before settling along or west of the Niagara River. Snowfall rates will likely remain impressive early Saturday with rates of 2"/hr, but should drop off to no more than an inch per hour by Saturday afternoon. Another shortwave will move across the region Saturday night, with winds shifting to the southwest and eventually the west in its wake. This will push the snow band back across the Buffalo metro area, with a modest intensification likely due to the longer fetch in the SW flow and with moisture from the shortwave. Snowfall rates of 2- 3"/hr can be expected, however the band will be mobile which will limit additional snow accumulation amounts. Expect most areas to get 6 - 9 inches as this moves through. Will maintain the warnings for Northern Erie and Genesee given the short time gap. A Winter Storm Watch will remain in place for Chautauqua and Southern Erie where there will be about an 18 hour break between the snows. By Sunday morning a WNW flow will direction the remaining lake snows across the Western Southern Tier, with just some lingering snow showers elsewhere. This may allow the warnings for N Erie and Genesee to be dropped early. However, there still will be lingering impacts from the storm Sunday with winds gusting to 35 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. Also, it will be a bit colder by then so snow Saturday night will be drier and more prone to drifting. Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario... Similar to Lake Erie, winds will back to the south-southwest and direct the lake band across far northern Jefferson County and even across the St. Lawrence and into Canada for a time. This will provide a break for Watertown Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to the southwest late Saturday night, causing the band to intensify as it taps into Lake Erie moisture and moves back southward. Snowfall rates of 2"/inches an hour will bring an additional 6 inches or so to Jefferson county late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds will shift to the west Sunday, and the longer fetch and slower band movement has the potential to produce 9" or more of snow across Oswego County through Sunday evening. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Oswego county. Some accumulation is also likely into Lewis and northern Cayuga counties, but not quite as much so held off on a watch for there (but it will be close). Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly quiet, with a partial clearing at times. Temperatures will be below normal, especially Sunday when highs will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel like its in the teens. Mid-level height rises occur across the Great Lakes region Monday. Warm air advection will likely occur across the eastern Great Lakes while winds back to the south-southwest. Snow showers will likely linger northeast of Lake Ontario through Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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