BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, andyhb said: The latest HRRR is pretty damn ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Everyone likes the discord more than here. Might just be me posting on here for this storm. I love to look back at all the pics/videos years from now. What Discord room is that? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: crap, looks like i may be just a hair too far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 south wales already 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, LansingWeather said: crap, looks like i may be just a hair too far north... You’ll be ok- I am at the Marriot Harborcenter and you’re literally a jog north. There are so many variables as to where this band will set up…shit, it could park itself just south of the city. It will make slight movements once established…will be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 ..SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 1 W COLDEN 8.2 IN 1030 PM 11/16 COCORAHS 3 NE HOLLAND 7.5 IN 0950 PM 11/16 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 NE BOSTON 5.3 IN 0700 PM 11/16 COCORAHS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 So, been on midnight shifts the past week and felt a disturbance in the force. Looks like some snow eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 My quick and non-sophisticated map/forecast for the event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Could be a little too south given the flow. Again, pretty quick forecast. May adjust about 20-25 miles north either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 57 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: My quick and non-sophisticated map/forecast for the event. Is that 6 FEET of snow? I might have to go up there to dig them out of all that snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buffalo is gonna be a great place for an EPIC lake effect snow jebwalk! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 This is SO UNBELIEVABLY intriguing, that I just had to post it up. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 411 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Colder air will pour across the region, resulting in a prolonged lake effect snow event. Lake snows will focus east of the lakes today before shifting northeast of the lakes tonight and Friday. This is when the heaviest snow will impact the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Lake snows will then shift north and west of these cities Saturday before dropping back southward Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... All the ingredients are in place for a major lake effect snowstorm, with more than ample lake induced instability, a cap averaging 12-15k ft, and periodic shortwaves which will provide additional moisture. Early this morning, there`s a well developed lake effect snow band off Lake Erie however the westerly flow is now directing the most intense snows to the south of our area. This area of lake effect snow will still produce snowfall rates 1"/hr across the Western Southern Tier. Expect bands to remain nearly stationary before weakening around mid-morning as a shortwave trough axis moves off to our east and strips away the deeper moisture. Meanwhile the band off Lake Ontario will become better organized, with radar trends suggesting this is already occurring. This is due to moisture from the shortwave and is also shown by most mesoscale model guidance. Snowfall rates of 2" can be expected, and there`s also a risk of thundersnow within about 15 miles of the lake. There have already been some lightning strikes with the most intense band off Lake Erie. Expecting a total of 10 to 18 inches in most persistent snows off Lake Ontario through this evening. Most of this snow will occur through early afternoon before the departure of the shortwave. Outside of these areas, today will simply be brisk and chilly with highs in the 30s and 15 to 25 mph winds. A second shortwave will approach the region this evening, which will shift winds to the southwest. Lake effect snow bands will move rapidly northward, reaching the Buffalo metro area around 8 p.m. The band will remain across the Buffalo area, but will meander slightly south late tonight following the passage of the shortwave. Moisture from the shortwave and the long fetch down Lake Erie will support an intense band with snowfall rates of 3"/hr and some lightning strikes also possible. The most persistent snows through daybreak Friday are likely to be from downtown Buffalo to the airport, and the Buffalo southtowns. By daybreak Friday, expect snowfall amounts well over a foot in some of these locations. Heavy snow will reach Watertown shortly after midnight, with heavy lake snows settling across the northern half of Jefferson County by daybreak. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr and some lightning strikes are also possible off Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... For this update we will issue a lake effect snow warning for Niagara County, while converting the watch for Orleans to a winter weather advisory. A deep longwave trough will be established this period, funneling cold air across the Great Lakes. There will be a few shortwaves riding through this trough that will oscillate the bands of snow...with a subtle one Friday, and a much deeper one Saturday and into Saturday night. Off Lake Erie... A SW flow will direct a singular band of heavy lake effect snow up Lake Erie and inland across the City of Buffalo...the airport and out towards Batavia to start the morning. This band will remain fairly stationary through the day though there could be some varying persistence to the band, so this will still need to be considered. There continue to be hints of a weak shortwave trough moving through, veering steering winds to 250 direction. NAM and Canadian indicate this, but didn`t drift axis of heavier snow too far south. Local knowledge is once the band becomes developed, it is very hard to push it too far south. The strong convergence enhanced by the attempt at the band drifting south will just lead to impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet. This as the band of snow will be oriented along the long axis of the lake will produce very intense snowfall rates of over 3 inches per hour. Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will then not oscillate much into Friday night, this is where this band will have the best chance to produce feet of snow. The highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area (downtown and towards the airport with 240 wind) or just to the south to the south if wind direction veers to 250. For what it`s worth the snowfall record Friday for Buffalo is 8.2 inches set back in November 2000...a lake effect snow event that preceded the big November 20-23rd event that left many stranded and produced the greatest November daily snowfall of 24.9 inches on the 20th. Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs when the lake is still warm as it is here with values in the lower 50s at the top of end of what is typical for mid November and with a cold airmass overhead as well as equilibrium levels up towards H5 or 15-20kft AGL. This northern flank is also where we expect the stronger inbound winds as well as the highest snowfall rates to occur. The higher lake equilibrium levels as well as well as increased lake instability may bring a few rumbles of thunder within the lake snow band. This may occur later Thursday night and through Friday night...with lightning possible over Lake Erie and to about 20-25 miles inland. The snowband will begin to drift northward Friday night as a shortwave trough drops towards the western end of Lake Erie. The backing winds will drive the heart of the snowband up towards Niagara County, while also brushing by Orleans. We will upgrade Niagara to a lake effect snow warning, while hoisting a winter weather advisory for Orleans...timing later Friday night through Saturday night. Behind this shortwave winds will veer, rather quickly and send the plume of lake snow southward passing Buffalo late Saturday night...and down towards the Buffalo southtowns and Ski Country by the end of the night. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Erie down towards Ski Country and the Southern Tier. This is a bit faster with the southward push, leaving the metro Buffalo area with very little if any snowfall during the day Sunday. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s, and around 30F near the Lake shoreline. Off Lake Ontario... Friday the lake effect snowband will be established over central and northern Jefferson County to start the day. The strong convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will allow this band of snow to continue through the day across Jefferson County with the snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. The axis of greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown and towards Philadelphia. Late Friday into Friday night seems when highest rates will occur. Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband is becoming more and more evident and will enhance the snows over Jefferson County. Here snowfall totals will also be measured in feet, and have kept the warning going. The snow band initially clipping southern Lewis with warning amounts will then clip the northern portion of the county Friday and Friday night. There is also a potential for thunder to occur within the more intense portion of the Lake snowband over Lake Ontario and into the western half of Jefferson County. Likewise to Lake Erie, the taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to occur. Ahead of a deeper shortwave trough, winds will back late Friday night and into Saturday sending the snowband up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley. The veering winds will lower snowfall totals some during the day Saturday as snow becomes more spread out. Also the veering winds over Lake Erie will likely direct the outer extent of lake moisture towards Prince Edwards peninsula and into Canada...with the Lake Ontario band then losing its upstream connection and lowering the intensity of the lake band. By Saturday night this upstream connection to Lake Erie will merge back into the Lake Ontario band, with the snow band structure increasing in strength...this as it drops southward across Jefferson County and northern Lewis. Behind this deeper trough on Sunday winds will quickly veer to west- northwesterly. This will drive the lake snows off Lake Ontario down towards Oswego County, where a more impressive band of snow may develop with an upstream connection to Georgian Bay. Depending upon if this connection materializes, there could be at least advisory level snow amounts during the day Sunday to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, snow amounts will be less. It will be chilly and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Off both Lakes... Winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35 mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few hundred feet. Travel late Thursday night and through Friday night will be very difficult. Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly quiet. Skies, while still mainly cloudy through the day Friday will begin to clear some Friday night and into Saturday. The clear skies Friday night outside of the lake plumes will bring a cold night, with overnight lows 10 to 15F across the inland Southern Tier as well as the southern Tug Hill. Apparent temperatures in these regions will drop into the low single digits Friday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prolonged upper level troughing will continue to remain across the Northeast Monday and into Tuesday before ridging across the Central and Northern Plains pushes across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Overall this pattern will support slightly below to normal temperatures through the early part of the week while introducing some dry weather by mid week. Looking into the details, initially the upper level troughing pattern will continue to funnel the cold air across the region Monday as high pressure sets up to the south of the region. This will place the region under west-southwesterly flow which will support lake effect snow showers east of both lakes to linger into Monday. Then, as the trough aloft pushes east, high pressure will engulf overhead of the area Tuesday and Wednesday introducing a break in the active weather. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR with pockets of MVFR CIGS outside of the lake snows. These will focus east of the lakes today, which will mean the only TAF site that`s impacted is KJHW. Visibility will frequently drop below a mile in snow through mid-morning. Major lake effect event will begin to impact KBUF this evening, with high confidence that heavy snow will move across and be near the KBUF terminal after around 01Z Friday. The band will be intense with vsby 1/4SM or less. The band will be across or near the KBUF airfield for most of tonight. It may briefly meander across KIAG, but any impact there will be temporary. The band will reach KART around 06Z Friday, also lowering vsby to 1/4SM in heavier snows. Outlook... Friday...VLIFR in bands of very heavy lake effect snow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Major impacts at KBUF and KART are likely. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect. Saturday and Sunday...IFR/LIFR in meandering bands of lake effect snow east and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect. Monday...MVFR/VFR with weakening mixed lake effect precip east of the lakes && .MARINE... The moderate to occasionally strong breezes will bring an extended period of SCA winds and waves on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this weekend. The strongest winds will be late Saturday night into Sunday when winds will approach gale force. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Hope you're tall, Jeb. This looks like it might shift north towards Niagara Falls for some part of Saturday then drift back south again Saturday night, could be snowing at a rate of 6-8 inches an hour during that period. Will shift further south Sunday mid-day then weaker snow shifts north back into BUF Sunday night. Despite warm advection might continue well into Monday at a lesser rate. (did not read the above post until this got posted, seems about the same) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Little zone of 48-60” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Tonight A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 35. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 1pm. Areas of blowing snow between 11am and 1pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 It appears the GOV is closing most roads at 4 PM. That shuts me out. Disappointed, but it is what it is. I have to be at NWS conference this morning. Otherwise, I would have left last night. Be careful, everyone. Enjoy the white gold. Looking forward to the photos and videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I will be watching this cam https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Morning runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 ..SNOWFALL REPORTS LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE LAT/LON ..NEW YORK ..CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY 3 S FREDONIA 3.4 IN 1045 PM 11/16 42.39N/79.33W ..ERIE COUNTY 2 S SOUTH WALES 10.0 IN 1150 PM 11/16 42.68N/78.57W 1 W COLDEN 8.2 IN 1030 PM 11/16 42.65N/78.71W 3 NE HOLLAND 7.5 IN 0950 PM 11/16 42.67N/78.51W 11.6" in Boston already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. The heavy snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Nearly 6" of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Nearly 6" of QPF! 70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Nearly 6" of QPF! Who said lake effect is fake effect, 6" of QPF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Couple videos from yesterday, started out with heavy graupel. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: My quick and non-sophisticated map/forecast for the event. Good to hear from you Scott, hope all is well! We need to meet up for wings again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Shutting down alot of road this afternoon https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkbw.com/news/local-news/portion-of-nys-thruway-in-wny-closing-to-commercial-traffic-at-4-p-m-thursday%3f_amp=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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