Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21

[CNY_WX]

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Elma ny had 98” in November 2014, I had 88” here. Buffalo airport record is dec 2001 event at 82”. 2007 is biggest event on record at tug hill 10 day totals of 140”

Oh wow I didn't know about those bigger totals.  140 is a lot of snow but I think many on here would settle for 98.   
 

wrapping my head around 8 to 12 feet of snow…just cray to think about it even though we know it happens.

[andyhb]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I wasn't excited before I'm officially excited now. Lake effect king called for 40"+ this morning in our discord. What are your thoughts on lightning, band placement/strength, residence time? I might be too far south for this one. Trying to figure out my game plan as my dad lives near the airport and might be better positioned.

I'd probably want to be in central Erie County, maybe a bit north. Lightning is definitely a possibility, if not a likelihood.

[Roger Smith]

Looks to me like 2-4 feet of snow by Saturday then a reinforcing shot of deeper cold creating extreme conditions on Sunday on top of that, seems quite possible to me that it equals or even outdoes 2014 eventually. The storm "chase" will be a question of where do you most want to become snowed in? The recovery would be rather slow as temperatures look set to remain in the high 30s to low 40s most of the following week, one third to half of this snow could still be on the ground by following weekend when a mixed event is indicated for the region.

[BuffaloWeather]

Tonights runs drifted a little south with the band and slightly increased QPF.

GFS

GEM

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM

NAM

[Weather Mike]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM

NAM

metro buffalo still looks like it gets slammed. I will get my hotel tomorrow once I see the model runs then. But I like the metro buffalo area. Any thoughts from others with more knowledge than me? 

thanks 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake effect snow warnings in place!

 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake
  snows. The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday night
  through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed two
  inches per hour. Snowfall totals of up to 4 feet will be
  possible if the main snow band is slower to push north late
  Friday night. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake
  snows. The highest accumulations will be inland from the lake
  across the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Erie county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday.

[BuffaloWeather]

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

A strong ridge of high pressure extending to Alaska and NW Canada
leading up to this period`s start will dislodge a plume of arctic
air southward, flowing down across the Great Lakes within a deep
trough of low pressure over Hudson Bay and to the Great Lakes.
Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to -10/-11C over the warm Great
Lakes, with delta T`s between the lake surface and 850 hPa of at
least 20C. This will bring plenty of lake instability to help in
formation of lake bands of precipitation. This cold airmass will
linger over the Lakes through this period, producing not only lake
snows, but also much below normal surface temperatures.

To start this period a surface low will be near the SOO, with weak
surface ridging pulling off to the east. A shortwave will be nearing
the east end of Lake Erie, and together these features will back the
surface winds. A secondary shortwave crossing southern Lake Michigan
early Friday morning will allow for general southwest flow to
continue for 24-36 hours, bringing significant lake snow accumulations
where bands persist the longest.

Off Lake Erie...

Backing surface winds will bring the focus of the lake snows northward
towards the metro Buffalo area. In doing so there may be a disruption
in the lake band briefly in the early evening, but strong surface
convergence and upward omega forcing, combined with increased moisture
with the passing shortwave should allow a singular band of precipitation
to again quickly establish. The cooling aloft will allow for primarily
snow, though near lake shore mix remains possible early Thursday
evening.

Once this band sets up, it will remain fairly stationary late
Thursday night and through the day Friday with the synoptic pattern
forcing a general southwest flow. The strong convergence leading to
impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ
and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will
allow this band of snow oriented along the long axis of the lake to
become very strong with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour.

Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will not oscillate much
later Thursday night and through Friday and into Friday night
snowfall totals will easily reach several feet this period. The
highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area,
including downtown and towards the airport where a 240 wind flow
will direct the snowband.

Climatologically, the northern flank of this snowband will have a
very tight gradient, while the southern flank will have accumulations
fan out with lesser gradient. This tight gradient usually occurs
when the lake is still warm, with a cold airmass overhead as well
as equilibrium levels up towards 500 hpa. This northern flank is
also where we expect the stronger inbound winds as well as the
highest snowfall rates to occur. Will have confidence to upgrade
northern Erie and Genesee Counties to a lake effect snow warning,
though there is still some question to whether the band will clip
the NW corner of Wyoming. For this reason we will leave Wyoming
in a watch...as well as Niagara and Orleans due to the later impacts
of the snowbands.

The higher lake equilibrium levels as well as well as increased lake
instability may bring a few rumbles of thunder within the lake snow
band. This may occur later Thursday night and through Friday
night...with lightning possible over Lake Erie and to about 20-25
miles inland.

Off Lake Ontario...

Winds will back about 3 hours later off Lake Ontario such that to
start this period lake snows will be oriented over Oswego and
southern Lewis. A quick backing of the winds will steer the lake
bands northward quickly, towards Watertown just past midnight.

Once this lake effect snow band sets up through the overnight, it
will remain fairly stationary through the day Friday with the
synoptic pattern forcing a general southwest flow. The strong
convergence leading to decent omega values, along with deep moisture
in the snow DGZ and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over
20K feet will allow this band of snow to oriented towards Jefferson
County with the snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour. The axis of
greatest snowfall this period will likely be directed at Watertown
and towards Philadelphia.

Though the snow band will not be oriented along the long axis of
Lake Ontario, an upstream connection to Lake Erie snowband will
likely enhance the snows over Jefferson County allowing for similar
snowfall rate potential. Here snowfall totals will also be measured
in feet, and will upgrade the watch to a Lake Effect snow warning
for Jefferson County. The snow band initially clipping southern
Lewis will then clip the northern portion of the county through the
day Friday and Friday night. While the band of snow will not focus
entirely on Lewis, several inches to half a foot of snow each period
will allow for a long duration advisory.

There will also be the potential for thunder to occur within the
more intense portion of the Lake snowband over Lake Ontario and into
the western half of Jefferson County. Likewise to Lake Erie, the
taller lake equilibrium heights and high delta T`s will create an
environment that will allow for charge separation and lightning to
occur.

Off both Lakes...

Winds will begin to increase during the day Friday. Gusts towards 35
mph near the shoreline will create blowing snow...that with the
heavy snowfall will lower visibilities at times to just a few
hundred feet. Travel late Thursday night and through Friday night
will be very difficult.

A deeper shortwave trough will bear down upon the
eastern Great Lakes late Friday night. This will back the surface
winds further such that the bands of snow will lift northward
towards Niagara-Orleans as well as the Saint Lawrence Valley. More
on this in the long term discussion below.

Outside of the lake effect snowbands the weather will be fairly
quiet. Skies will begin to clear some during the day Friday, though
still cold. The clear skies Friday night outside of the lake plumes
will bring a cold night, with overnight lows 10 to 15F across the
inland Southern Tier as well as the southern Tug Hill. Apparent
temperatures in these regions will drop into the low single digits
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Later Saturday into Saturday night is when the well developed band
appears to be most favored to lift into far western Niagara county
or even Canada as sharper re-enforcing upper level and sfc trough
dig across the western Great Lakes.  This shift to the west of the
band is brief though as sharp trough crosses on Sunday. Strong nw
flow will sweep southward across both lakes, resulting in brief but
heavy snow at times as the main band sweeps quickly southward.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the
late this weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow
is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This
would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with
additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond
when our initial watches end.

[BuffaloWeather]

Tonight

A chance of snow showers between 8pm and midnight, then snow likely after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Thursday

A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of snow showers before 8pm, then snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 27. Southwest wind 6 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 35. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 9pm. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday

Snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday

Snow showers. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Don't think I remember ever seeing KBUF forecast 3-4' of snow before the band starts going off the lake. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Kbuf official map through 7 am Saturday 

[BuffaloWeather]

Accuweather going big 

[Superstorm]

Impressive. Could be one for the ages.


.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake effect snow warnings in place!

 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake
  snows. The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday night
  through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed two
  inches per hour. Snowfall totals of up to 4 feet will be
  possible if the main snow band is slower to push north late
  Friday night. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake
  snows. The highest accumulations will be inland from the lake
  across the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Erie county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday.

And I get excited for 1-3 inches down here 

[BuffaloWeather]

The NAM having lower QPF gives me some pause on the higher numbers. Would still be a big storm but it paints less then half of the QPF that the RGEM is showing. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

[wkd]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

And I get excited for 1-3 inches down here 

I'm in the same situation. Lol

[BuffaloWeather]

16 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It's certainly a stellar set-up as NWS BUF has been screaming about for several days now...a prolonged period Thursday evening through Saturday night with moisture depth of 10-15k feet on forecast soundings (especially through early Saturday morning), extreme instability with lake to 850mb differentials of 22-24C and lake to 700mb differentials of 30-32C, and equilibrium levels of 20-25k feet...all these values support very deep and intense lake effect off the east end of the lake with thunder. 

I'm pretty impressed at how steady and close to due southwest the flow is late Thursday night through early Saturday, which seems to be a fetch that favors the city and airport or just south (but not quite as far south as 2014), so the band will probably move little in that timeframe and dump on that general area. I think slightly south of the airport is a pretty good spot, but you have watched those bands closer than I have so you may have a slightly better judgement on where they go with a certain wind direction. Regardless, the amount of moisture, instability, lack of shear, and good lift shown in the snow growth zone supports 2-4" per hour snow rates in the band and if it moves very little for 24-30 hours someone can get 3 or 4 feet...we'll see if it wiggles just a bit and prevents such insane totals, though the flow looks pretty steady... 

[wkd]

BuffaloWeather.  Any webcams you would suggest for snow wienies like me to watch and drool?

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

BuffaloWeather.  Any webcams you would suggest for snow wienies like me to watch and drool?

https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI90B

This link will cover the entire band of snow. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Some of the high res getting within range

[BuffaloWeather]

70% props of 12+

[BuffaloWeather]

WPC:

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

***Major lake effect snow event likely to begin tonight and last
through the upcoming weekend***

A long duration and heavy lake effect snow event is likely to
begin late Wednesday and then ramp up impressively through Friday
as a large scale trough envelops the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS and
mean layer flow becomes northwesterly across the Upper Great Lakes
and west-southwesterly over the Lower Great Lakes. Embedded within
this trough, spokes of shortwave energy will rotate cyclonically
from NW to SE, producing rounds of enhanced ascent and
re-energizing the subsequent CAA. Lake water temperatures
according to GLERL range from as warm as +6C in Lake Superior to
as high as +14C in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Pronounced CAA
through the period will drop 850mb temps from -6C to -10C
Wednesday, to as low as -10C to -15C Friday, creating intense
lake-induced instability reaching potentially 2000 J/kg as
inversion heights climb towards 10,000 ft. While wind trajectories
will vary at times with the passage of each shortwave, shear
should become ideal at times for single intense bands of LES,
especially downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario, with some additional
moisture /effective fetch/ off Lake Huron aiding. Additionally,
this intense instability and lake wind convergence could result in
meso-lows over Lake Superior to additionally enhance LES at times.

For D1, the most intense LES is forecast south of Lake Michigan
and eventually to the east-southeast of Lake Erie and the
Chautauqua Ridge into D2 due to multi-bands developing across
Erie. A few snow squalls may also extend eastward across parts of
northern PA on Thursday away from Lake Erie underneath a cutting
shortwave and within steep low-level lapse rates. WPC
probabilities are above 90% for 4 inches on D1 downwind of
southern Lake Michigan and east of Lake Erie, with locally 12
inches possible as convective snowfall rates eclipsing 2"/hr
become likely. Additional moderate-to-heavy LES is likely D2 and
D3 in the western U.P., as well as L.P., of MI.

The most significant LES during this forecast period appears to
occur Friday as shear becomes westerly over Lake Michigan and
Superior, becoming W/SW over Lake Erie and Ontario. This occurs in
conjunction with additional tumbling of 850mb temps to enhance
instability, and convective snow rates moving onshore of many of
the typical lake effect belts are progged for Friday. Heavy
snowfall from the Bayfields Peninsula through the Keweenaw is
expected, along with multiple bands shifting onshore from near
Grand Rapids to Traverse City, MI. In these areas, WPC
probabilities for more than 6 inches are higher than 80%, with
locally much higher totals likely. Downstream of Lake Erie and
Ontario, potent, convective, single bands are becoming more likely
Friday as fetch becomes ideal and aimed right at the Buffalo metro
area. Extreme snowfall rates of 3"/hr into parts of Upstate NY are
possible. WPC probabilities are high for 12 inches of snow within
24 hours ending 00z 11/19, with locally much higher totals
measured in multiple feet possible near Buffalo, NY over the
course of the entire forecast period.

This lake effect event will continue through the upcoming weekend
with additional significant accumulations likely. The medium range
discussion from WPC outlines some of this additional threat.

Key Messages for Lake Effect Snow in the Great Lakes:

--Confidence is increasing that several days of heavy lake effect
snow will occur east of the Great Lakes through the upcoming
weekend.

--Lake effect snow is expected to begin late Wednesday, with
periods of heavier snow continuing through Sunday. The most
intense snowfall will occur Thursday into Friday.

--Snowfall will at times likely be accompanied by lightning,
thunder, and rates exceeding 2�/hr. This will produce near zero
visibility and snow covered roadways making travel hazardous to
nearly impossible.

[Speedskater]

Lake Erie Offshore Forecast:

LEZ061-168-169-162130-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
1025 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

.REST OF TODAY...West winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers, then
rain and snow showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally
around 10 feet.
.TONIGHT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers
early, then rain showers, snow showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves
occasionally around 9 feet.
.THURSDAY...West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely with
snow showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers in
the evening, then snow showers, rain showers with a chance of
thunderstorms overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to
10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
.FRIDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots. Snow showers with a chance
of thunderstorms. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around
15 feet.
.SATURDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 6 to
10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds to 30 knots. Snow showers likely during the
day. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

[Hoosier]

Gonna be living vicariously through you guys.  Good luck all.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

NYZ010-011-170300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.221118T0000Z-221120T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
139 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest
  snow is expected late Thursday evening through Friday night when
  snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Snowfall totals
  of up to 4 feet will be possible if the main snow band remains
  stationary for longer period of time. Winds gusting as high as
  35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

[BuffaloWeather]

HRDPS has a dual band, this is only through friday morning