George001 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Based on what I’m seeing on the models I think there could be a very real chance we see our first snow in SNE next weekend. This Wednesday is a sneaky threat as well, as it has trended towards more aggressive secondary redevelopment with the low (Miller B). If it were mid winter I would be very excited about the mid week threat, but the pattern is progressive with no blocking so I’m thinking it’s a rainstorm for us. The pattern next weekend looks better on the models, with a much more amplified trough. Looking at the surface map it looks like a Miller A nor’easter, and would bring a few inches of snow verbatim. Nothing too big. However, the H5 tells a different story…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 This pattern looks really interesting. There is a very strong western ridge and a very potent northern branch. All that northern energy digging into the Midwest makes me think there is some potential for the Miller A being shown right now to turn into a Miller B. Some other models are showing suppression, but I’m not really buying that. There are several factors on the 12z Euro arguing against suppression. 1. Look how far west that western ridge is, it’s centered about 200 miles west of ideal for a 40/70 track. In fact, it’s so far west it argues that the risk is for an inland runner if anything. 2. How poleward the western ridge is, it’s so poleward it extends all the way into the North Pole. Whatever northern energy there is will likely be digging aggressively. 3. El Niño is nowhere to be found. The northern energy diving down in central Canada gets down to 504 isobars, and the isobars are very tightly packed. That energy’s origin is the North Pole. The Jet stream just doesn’t get that far north in El Niño. La Niña is in full control, which argues against a southern stream dominant solution. disclaimer- if the blocking doesn’t strengthen, it might rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Maybe try for the 26th time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 So all these weenies for poor George lol…so there’s no system in that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So all these weenies for poor George lol…so there’s no system in that timeframe? It has shown up a couple times on various model runs, but it doesn't have anything close to widespread ensemble support. Certainly nothing thread-worthy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 The surface maps don’t really show anything but the h5 looks interesting on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 6 hours ago, Whineminster said: Ya gotta give George credit for going out on a limb though...lol He'll get his win and his moment of glory!!! I'm rooting for ya George 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 PLEASE... save a weenie and stop posting "threats" too early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 45 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: PLEASE... save a weenie and stop posting "threats" too early! He’s taken over for Jimmy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s taken over for Jimmy. Big, big shoes to fill, but so far so.... good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 I can't rule out flakes clipping the region, but a thread??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 How did I miss this thread. George already in mid-winter form 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 There's already warnings out............. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Never mind the naysayers George. 6"-12" down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Euro actually has a period of -SN for central and eastern areas Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro actually has a period of -SN for central and eastern areas Sunday. Noticed that.,. Looks like a couple inches south and east of Boston. Would be a festive day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Noticed that.,. Looks like a couple inches south and east of Boston. Would be a festive day. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh Mid season form I see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Mid season form I see Looks Cold and dry. Maybe we see flurries. Strong s/w but I feel like its Too Far East to have much of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 I'm despondent that this storm is not coming to fruition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Quick peak on GFS shows chance of snow shwrs/squalls maybe Sunday aftn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Quick peak on GFS shows chance of snow shwrs/squalls maybe Sunday aftn? For all of southern new England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: For all of southern new England? I would say so. I am hoping the s/w sharpens up a bit more to allow a broader chance of -SN...but it may not have enough time. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 George, are you ready to take a shot at the Black Friday Blaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: George, are you ready to take a shot at the Black Friday Blaster? Hell yeah, this threat won’t pan out (like many here said, I jumped the gun creating this thread) but the overnight guidance trended towards a Miller B for the next threat. The EPS is showing early and aggressive secondary redevelopment, with a low strong enough to potentially create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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