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Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean by NW bias, but I think it does well overall with the warm intrusions. For instance I don’t notice a NW bias when it shows this….maybe if anything is actually depicts the surface low as it should….following the  path of least resistance near coast vs going inland. 
However, I’ve noticed that given similar low placements on guidance, it seems to handle warm air intrusions aloft better….800mb and above stuff. 
 

I think this is working out close to HRRR and other guidance that had snow start near CT coast from a good burst. However sleet like racing north so I’m not sure we see a big + bust? Unless you bought the nam haha.

Yeah that’s why I call this a mini bust… I mean it’s going to flip over

I still think there’s a period of ice where it gets of evap cooling interior. Secondary going south is pretty much guarantees a low 30s show

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00z HRRR... I'm thinking up this way 3-6" above 1,000-1,500ft with 1-3" below 1,000ft due to tomorrow's low level warmth.  It'll start cold but I think after 2-3" below 1,000ft it'll start fighting itself.  It's all about how fast one can measure after the temperatures go above 32F.

Above 1,000-1,500ft should be cold enough to accumulate all day, so the 10:1 maps are likely closer to reality at elevation.  In the valleys with lower ratios you can cut these numbers.

hrrr-vt-total_snow_10to1-8704400.thumb.png.8d78f0ffc5ddc44e1a1a79c4bdce6082.png

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14 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Unfortunately their mask is poor. Too cold. Always counts sleet as snow. It's on my doorstep now. 

It is but it’s also on your doorstep and not there yet ;).  It is mis-leading because blue on the mix line is the same blue as way up north.  Frozen can be much different than a wet sleety snow to a dry dendritic flakes.

You just have to realize that map is also delayed, takes a minute to update, and treats all frozen the same for the most part.

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