Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/16/2022 at 12:49 AM, WinterWolf said:

Yup…did not expect this at all. Cool to be surprised in a positive way in November. 

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AWT

[CoastalWx]

Nam ftl 

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/16/2022 at 12:56 AM, CoastalWx said:

AWT

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Nice call.  
 

Wasn’t paying too much attention cuz figured it would be completely rain.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Light snow falling in Greenfield!

[TalcottWx]

We are having issues now accumulating compared to first thump, but temperatures down to 32.9F. Rates and snow growth issue. Amounts won't be high. Likely garbage aloft. Mood snows, embrace and enjoy. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 11/16/2022 at 12:57 AM, CoastalWx said:

Nam ftl 

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Yeah not even close. Maybe it was still hungover from the summer convection party it throws each year. 

[Spanks45]

Looks like the sleet line is right over head here.....it was a good start to the season, hoping to use the shovel sooner rather than later. 34.7/28.0

[CoastalWx]

Should be nice burst into metro west I think 

[TalcottWx]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:01 AM, TalcottWx said:

We are having issues now accumulating compared to first thump, but temperatures down to 32.9F. Rates and snow growth issue. Amounts won't be high. Likely garbage aloft. Mood snows, embrace and enjoy. 

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Maybe I should bite my tongue. Back to massive parachutes at 32F.

[PowderBeard]

NAM gonna be like...

[Damage In Tolland]

From home 

[Damage In Tolland]

[TalcottWx]

I may be up to an inch in not too long if this continues. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/16/2022 at 12:33 AM, FXWX said:

 

Snow flying in Burlington, CT

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Beautiful vantage !

[Sn0waddict]

38 and rain here. Envious of you all.

[Spanks45]

Moderate sleet now, covered the ground quicker than the snow was....33.8/28.0

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not even close. Maybe it was still hungover from the summer convection party it throws each year. 

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I was getting sick of hearing about the NAM-superior warm tongue theory …thank God the other shoe fell

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:23 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I was getting sick of hearing about the non-superior warm tongue theory …thank God the other shit fell

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It does do well with that 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:23 AM, CoastalWx said:

It does do well with that 

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It doesn’t though… And I can explain why it only seems that way but nobody really wants to listen or gonna care

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:23 AM, CoastalWx said:

It does do well with that 

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But not today. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:28 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn’t though… And I can explain why it only seems that way but nobody really wants to listen or gonna care

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9/10 times when everyone tosses the nam because it’s the warmest model, it is right. Doesn’t mean it will be all the time like today, but it does do well. Not sure today purely qualifies as the typical warm tongue type event though. 

[Thunderblizzard]

Pure sleet falling now. Tickling down to 32.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 11/16/2022 at 12:24 AM, Spanks45 said:

Legit light snow with the first coating on mulch and grass.....38/26

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Damn, those look like javelins.

[kdxken]

Little pellets here.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:31 AM, CoastalWx said:

9/10 times when everyone tosses the nam because it’s the warmest model, it is right. Doesn’t mean it will be all the time like today, but it does do well. Not sure today purely qualifies as the typical warm tongue type event though. 

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I argue that the Nam has a Northwest biased much of the time so it’s the apt model that picks up a warm solution when it happens because it happen to be Northwest -  that’s what I’m saying it’s right for the wrong reasons?

I’ve always thought so and today? Yeah I kind of agree with you anyway I don’t even know if today really qualifies. 

This is so far a little mini positive bust based on guidance probably underestimating the cold air for some reason. We’re also doing some hydroscopic feedback

[UnitedWx]

Snow in Westfield the last half hour. Beginning to stick 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ginx pic from wife 

[TalcottWx]

That mix line is marching. I should be mixing within the hour. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/16/2022 at 1:35 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I argue that the Nam has a Northwest biased much of the time so it’s the apt model that picks up a warm solution when it happens because it happen to be Northwest -  that’s what I’m saying it’s right for the wrong reasons?

I’ve always thought so and today? Yeah I kind of agree with you anyway I don’t even know if today really qualifies. 

This is so far a little mini positive bust based on guidance probably underestimating the cold air for some reason. We’re also doing some hydroscopic feedback

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I know what you mean by NW bias, but I think it does well overall with the warm intrusions. For instance I don’t notice a NW bias when it shows this….maybe if anything is actually depicts the surface low as it should….following the  path of least resistance near coast vs going inland. 
However, I’ve noticed that given similar low placements on guidance, it seems to handle warm air intrusions aloft better….800mb and above stuff. 
 

I think this is working out close to HRRR and other guidance that had snow start near CT coast from a good burst. However sleet like racing north so I’m not sure we see a big + bust? Unless you bought the nam haha.