Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Well southern New England is closer to Richmond, VA than it is to Madawaska.

Takes me about 8.5- 9 hrs to get to Madawaska if it’s a dry trip.  I’ve never driven to Richmond so I couldn’t comment on that. 

[met_fan]

Takes me about 8.5- 9 hrs to get to Madawaska if it’s a dry trip.  I’ve never driven to Richmond so I couldn’t comment on that. 

I mean, I’m just going by as the crow flies looking at a map

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Well southern New England is closer to Richmond, VA than it is to Madawaska.

When we told our NJ family/friends that we were moving from BGR to northern Maine (Fort Kent), some asked whether "northern Maine" was north of Portland.  Our reply - Portland is almost halfway there.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

When we told our NJ family/friends that we were moving from BGR to northern Maine (Fort Kent), some asked whether "northern Maine" was north of Portland.  Our reply - Portland is almost halfway there.

Surprising seeing you poll others and they think Maine is in Canada.......lol

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Takes me about 8.5- 9 hrs to get to Madawaska if it’s a dry trip.  I’ve never driven to Richmond so I couldn’t comment on that. 

It's probably about 8 hours to get to Richmond

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Surprising seeing you poll others and they think Maine is in Canada.......lol

When Angus King was Governor, he often hyped Canadian tourism in Maine and even joked about seceding and joining our northern neighbor so we could be "the Florida of Canada".

[Baroclinic Zone]

storm cancelled?  geography lesson in session.

[forkyfork]

bad lift, large riming layer, north trend, no high ahead of the storm. easy to see coming

[CoastalWx]

I don't think anything changed. We definitely mentioned the caveats for SNE especially. NWS map earlier seemed ok. If anything might sneak some flakes into metro west.

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

I've become more troll-like in my old age. I will behave. 

Youngster! Try 34 years since high school

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Regardless, ineedsnow will set his alarm for 2am to catch the first mangled flakes of the season. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Regardless, ineedsnow will set his alarm for 2am to catch the first mangled flakes of the season. 

Lol..ya I’m way beyond that point.  Will not intentionally get up to see a few flakes mixed in with the rain at 2 am.  If I’m up to take a leak, I’ll take a peak quick, then back to sleep.
 

A legit threat with siggy snow…now that’s a different story.  But not this. Sleep is too important when you gotta be in work the next day morning. 

[ROOSTA]

Instead of waiting, wanting, wishing for first snow.
Y'all (I think that's how to say it) come on down to the Cape and watch the most powerful rocket launch into the heavens.
It's 60 miles to my ESE. Put it on your bucket list, most assured you will not be disappointed.
  
Appearing first snows for most is going to have to wait. This is not the event.   

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Instead of waiting, wanting, wishing for first snow.
Y'all (I think that's how to say it) come on down to the Cape and watch the most powerful rocket launch into the heavens.
It's 60 miles to my ESE. Put it on your bucket list, most assured you will not be disappointed.
  
Appearing first snows for most is going to have to wait. This is not the event.   

Not for most but we're getting closer.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro bit better for NNE

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Youngster! Try 34 years since high school

Hey kid-58 for me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like 1” or so before it flips. Will need someone in hood to measure since we Maine 

[TalcottWx]

7 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Apparently you aren't too familiar with this area. In GENERAL it is a fairly snow area especially compared to the rest of the valley

 

7 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I told him the same thing. 

My Talcott posse has my back. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

 

My Talcott posse has my back. 

You really only at 100'?? 

[powderfreak]

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here.  Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You really only at 100'?? 

He’s just about ASL. Maybe there’s a hillier part of Simsbury I haven’t seen. But I can tell you .. no one thinks of Simsbury as snowy relative to hills NW and NE. It’s a beautiful area 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here.  Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

Check your 18z HRRR, It seems to be more bullish, Good first test on the models to where they lay the boundary for this.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, wkd said:

I asked this last few winters after all of the jokes about the Euro's previous supposed superior performance.  Do any of the mets know what the major objectives were for the changes in the model?  I'm pretty sure the primary objective wasn't in predicting northeast snowstorm totals 5 days out in the Conus. 

One has to dive into what are called “release notes” - most likely given a formal publication name for that space.  For those products they are complex …very involving. It’s not very accessible to encapsulation inside a sentence or two like that. 

Lol unless somebody wants to be a wise ass and just say, ‘not get worse’

All you have to do is go on Google and type … I dunno, something like “European forecast model upgrades purpose” and you’re likely to get into a more comprehensive expose then in here. 

[dryslot]

Meanwhile, A WWA has been hoisted here, For a sloppy couple.

[ORH_wxman]

Big model differences between NAM and other guidance for tonight. Most other guidance prob gets like an inch or so (maybe even 2”) down near ORH while NAM would maybe start as a couple flakes before very quickly flipping.
 

18z NAM gets the mixing north of the VT/Canada border. 18z HRRR and 18z rap are still defying the NAM. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here.  Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

Mid level thrust has only gotten stronger as this has gotten closer over the last 48 hours.  … Said thrust originating west of us, that doesn’t bode well for deep layer thickness if one is holding out for colder profiles. But anyway even back then it didn’t look very encouraging for me …that’s why I told people more icing at least in southern New England. As it unfolds in central northern yeah maybe it’s getting warmer down the stretch too.  Havent looked. 

This whole system is really more about the winter Synoptics and this being the first time for this early it’s a great entry … a good practice event. 

Currently observing an emerging signal around the 24th or 28th of the month

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big model differences between NAM and other guidance for tonight. Most other guidance prob gets like an inch or so (maybe even 2”) down near ORH while NAM would maybe start as a couple flakes before very quickly flipping.
 

18z NAM gets the mixing north of the VT/Canada border. 18z HRRR and 18z rap are still defying the NAM. 

There was a storm last winter. Nam was a torch aloft .. HRRR was dropping 2-4” even here. Guess who won ?  I bet you recall the storm 

[TalcottWx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really only at 100'?? 

Lol, yes. I am in a weird spot. Does well on average though. 

[TalcottWx]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s just about ASL. Maybe there’s a hillier part of Simsbury I haven’t seen. But I can tell you .. no one thinks of Simsbury as snowy relative to hills NW and NE. It’s a beautiful area 

part of Simsbury are like 850-1k?

 

I will be moving higher when we buy. Not paying these rates. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

part of Simsbury are like 850-1k?

 

I will be moving higher when we buy. Not paying these rates. 

If I were you .. I’d head to high points in Burlington or Goshen to live