Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday

[dryslot]

Looking at Nam soundings, Pellets were in there as you get outside the foothills.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s cold at the surface, but beware the warm tongue aloft.

Nothing more on-brand than the NAM reminding everyone cheering at a colder surface that Mother Nature can still find other ways to end your fun .

Its been very consistent showing sleety profiles lifting north.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing more on-brand than the NAM reminding everyone cheering at a colder surface that Mother Nature can still find other ways to end your fun .

Its been very consistent showing sleety profiles lifting north.

Yeah it’s just something to watch for people like Dave and Ineedsnow.  Better for you as you get into the meat of this. 
 

[klw]

we've got maps!

[Damage In Tolland]

Getting snowier 

GEFS ensemble mean accumulations are up
to about 2" north of the Rte 2 corridor, which seems more realistic
than the 00Z deterministic ECMWF which brings accumulations of over
5" to the western reaches of our CWA. Given the trends mentioned
above, favoring lower end accumulations with this update, with a
coating to 2" inches possible north and west of Worcester and in the
high terrain of northern CT, with 3"+ totals isolated to the highest
elevations of the Berkshires.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is pretty mild 925-850 south of rt 2 when precip starts. You’ll have to hope for one of those initial bands to ride out well ahead and get the show started as snow I think because verbatim I don’t think much would fall as snow on the euro.

[powderfreak]

I like the BTV forecast… 2-5” lower elevations below 1000-1500ft and 6-10” mountains.

Seems about right for now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is pretty mild 925-850 south of rt 2 when precip starts. You’ll have to hope for one of those initial bands to ride out well ahead and get the show started as snow I think because verbatim I don’t think much would fall as snow on the euro.

As usual people are rushing things 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As usual people are rushing things 

I could see snow in the higher spots to start for sure. I think it would be tough for more than a sloppy inch in those areas except for maybe Dave and now Ineedsnow up in the hinterlands.

[dryslot]

To warm aloft for much of anything outside the foothills north into the mtns and Northern Maine up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Should  be 2-4” in Bangor Wednesday 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should  be 2-4” in Bangor Wednesday 

You Bangor.

[Baroclinic Zone]

beer

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You Bangor.

I’ll be Banging snow in Bangor 

[dryslot]

Torchy.

[TalcottWx]

58 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As usual people are rushing things 

Maybe in Se MA or south weymouth, but not here in the great white northwest 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Torchy.

That sounding looks like the precip is ended.....completely dried out in the mid-levels.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Maybe in Se MA or south weymouth, but not here in the great white northwest 

… let us know how much snow you get 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is like 1-2 for Kev into ORH areas maybe 2-3 for Dave and Ineedweenies. I think those clown maps are more realistic as HRRR explicitly depicts snow unlike some other models. Caveat being 10:1 ratios shown and it likely will be less so probably lower range of totals?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is like 1-2 for Kev into ORH areas maybe 2-3 for Dave and Ineedweenies. I think those clown maps are more realistic as HRRR explicitly depicts snow unlike some other models. Caveat being 10:1 ratios shown and it likely will be less so probably lower range of totals?

All about rates....if it's SN- at 33F for 2-3 hours, it's gonna be mostly coatings to an inch...but if you can sneak in an hour of SN or SN+ at 31-32F, then there will be some 2" amounts prob.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

All about rates....if it's SN- at 33F for 2-3 hours, it's gonna be mostly coatings to an inch...but if you can sneak in an hour of SN or SN+ at 31-32F, then there will be some 2" amounts prob.

Yep. Needs to come in hard and fast. 

[WinterWolf]

Congrats and enjoy to those that see some flakes and especially some accumulation…the vast majority of us will have to wait a lil longer. 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is pretty much no snow south of pike, but a little thump north of the MA border for a few hours. 

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is pretty much no snow south of pike, but a little thump north of the MA border for a few hours. 

We rain!

[ROOSTA]

As in Spring also in Fall, elevation will be a determining factor as a general rule.

  

[Cold Miser]

7 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

As in Spring also in Fall, elevation will be a determining factor as a general rule.

  

 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

As in Spring also in Fall, elevation will be a determining factor as a general rule.

  

Doomed in The Valley 

[dryslot]

Very reasonable right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nothings really changed… Better snow chances are C -northern New England. 

38/21  Full sun. Winter atmosphere with ease this hr  

In the interest of now casting this thing probably watch the behavior of advection over the next 24 hours.  And also it’s not so far-fetched to monitor the environmental feedback‘s… Such as if it’s clear tonight and decoupled it’s going to bottom out … then, we may actually “ CAC” tomorrow morning …end up with a low level boundary layer cold feedback that way. I think that for people north of Hartford and west of I 495 in Massachusetts up to SE VT and S NH theres a potential for some ice.  

it’s a good practice event… In a month we probably frontload this event with better snow performance… at least per guidance look. And there’s still some small chance of this thing busting colder so long as the high is draped north and the low does cut southeast 

 

[klw]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doomed in The Valley