Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday

[Typhoon Tip]

Obviously we've been over this and over this late Tuesday through Wednesday ordeal.  The event itself is both not a novel reach, and is of higher confidence.  What has low confidence are the weather types at discrete scales. At minimum, it will "smell" like winter (haha, making progress!) regardless, ...with that mix of cold water and distant wood smoke.   It's worth note/coverage as the first synoptic cold season system.

•  the recent larger scale hemispheric pattern change has finished reconstructing the total manifold around one that typically does enhance the potential for eastern/east coastal cyclogenesis.  This event late Tuesday through Wednesday, regardless of total and/or specific "backyard" impacts, is a winter storm, with all the metrics in play.  There is a strong baroclinic gradient situating early in the week .. roughly VA to coastal New England astride the coast, do to that change. 
• thinking is .5 to .75" liq equiv, and much if not all of it will likely be liquid SE of ~ HFD-BED. NW of that rough axis ...I'm a little intrigued at lower cold handling, and the fact that as we get near, there is a sneaking attempt to apply more lag to the cold ptypes.
• my personal view is that the boundary layer may not be handled entirely well with still 72 to 84 hours in the till before we start counting flakes or raindrops on this.  We have a low with an apparent pulse of deepening as it passes between the Benchmark and Cape Cod Wednesday afternoon, while there is a modest +PP draped C-NNE.  What part of our geo-physics ever allows the interior to warm in that set up - it essentially can't.  There's likely to be a "tuck" acceleration of BL/925mb flow ...and whether that crashes back to 34 or 31 is a now-cast aspect.  But ice is not impossible there.
• snow vs rain vs ice ...will it be cold enough?  +1 to +2C 850mb type NW cyclone arcs typically due tick closer to an isothermal 0 C as the event in question nears in modeled range... Modeling advances in recent year haven't tested that enough.  The 12z guidance did trend upward with snow chance ...mainly west of the ORH Hills and along RT 2...  not surprised.  However, with the larger synoptics described above... I don't see this getting warmer. It's really more a matter of being cold enough.  That's the direction of the correction vectoring.   I like 1-3" for NW Mass... and cat paws and with occasional soaked cotton balls west of I-495 for now, and this will increase going north into central NE and N-NE.  It is not impossible for this to trend more wintry in the intermediate interior.

 

[moneypitmike]

catpaws or bust.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is pretty warm aloft, but a good initial thump especially near the MA-NH-VT border on north. It is something to watch though. 
 

The high is in a decent spot as Tip said. Not really retreating so that good. That look usually is kind to the east facing slopes with the upslope cooling. So you’ll probably wetbulb nicely in areas that start as snow. 
 

You’ll also want to get a good initial thump too. You want to see good lift into the DGZ to help drop temps from wetbulbing. Gfs was sort of meh it seemed with rates. I don’t know how that will play out, but pay attn to soundings over the next 24 hours. If you can’t get the good lift, it will be a lot of sleet and cold rain. 

[dryslot]

Anything before thanksgiving here is a bonus, Looks like a chance at a couple inches right now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pete B is hangin’ with DiT

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

18z GFS came in colder . Unless we see a late bump north.  This starts as snow NW of 95 and whitens at a minimum to  NW of 95 to 84 to the pike .

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pete B is hangin’ with DiT

 

 

That’s the GFS verbatim for Tgiving . Euro is like 30 degrees colder . It has us in the teens the day before Tgiving 

[powderfreak]

18z Euro goes bonkers with the mid-level fronto forcing in S/C VT on NE.

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z Euro goes bonkers with the mid-level fronto forcing in S/C VT on NE.

Yay, that’s the day I’m getting my snow tires out on. 

[dryslot]

18z Euro was a couple tics colder too for places near the coast.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro was a couple tics colder too for places near the coast.

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles.  probably we'll lock tomorrow evening...  then now cast.   Welcome to marginal season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Haha Nice little event on my Bday, yet I'll be in the Bahamas.

Methuen will jack.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles.  probably we'll lock tomorrow evening...  then now cast.   Welcome to marginal season. 

Low got stronger and even ticked north from 12z, tracking over the Cape Cod bridge, and the result seemed to be a bit more compact and cold on the north side.  Probably the hope is to get it as strong/dynamic as possible for those borderline thermals?

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles.  probably we'll lock tomorrow evening...  then now cast.   Welcome to marginal season. 

The trend seems to have gone colder today, Its more of a thread the needle scenario the further east you are, SLP looked to track over the elbow this run into the GOM, 3mb stronger too.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The trend seems to have gone colder today, Its more of a thread the needle scenario the further east you are, SLP looked to track over the elbow this run into the GOM so that was a couple tics east too from 12z.

Tick tick. I thought it went more NW with the SFC .  Love the nitpicking we do.

12z then 18z… 12z missed the Cape all together.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tick tick. I thought it went more NW with the SFC .  Love the nitpicking we do.

12z then 18z

I had made an edit, I went back and compared the two closer, Not really that i wanted to yet but it was a bit NW as you say and about 3mb stronger too, Definitely colder at the surface here.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I went back and compared the two closer, Not really that i wanted to yet but it was a bit NW as you say and about 3mb stronger too, Definitely colder at the surface here.

I would imagine the stronger surface would help with NE surface flow there as the low trajectory is more east than north tracking?  Stronger that gets and moving east I’d think you’d drain cold in faster.  As it goes over the canal you are strengthening NE surface winds.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I would imagine the stronger surface would help with NE surface flow there as the low trajectory is more east than north tracking?  Stronger that gets and moving east I’d think you’d drain cold in faster.  As it goes over the canal you are strengthening NE surface winds.

Yes better if its tracking more north and east pulling the boundary east instead of west more inland, Its still going to be tricky here better to the west.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

41 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yay, that’s the day I’m getting my snow tires out on. 

What do you use 

[kdxken]

So much weenie joy. Fingers crossed it comes about. The let down could get ugly.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So much weenie joy. Fingers crossed it comes about. The let down could get ugly.

I don't think it would be a let down, I'm more interested to see which model performs the best going into the rest of winter, Snow avgs are pretty low for many in Nov.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Boston Mets put as much effort into the far “NW” areas of their forecast maps as I do holding farts in on a empty bus 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boston Mets put as much effort into the far “NW” areas of their forecast maps as I do holding farts in on a empty bus 

AEMATT?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AEMATT?

Yes. Even back in the day in ORH I sometimes felt a little neglected by Boston Mets but it wasn’t nearly as bad as areas NW of ORH put toward ORE. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What do you use 

I got some General Altimax tires this year. They seemed decent and they were only $135 each. 
General Altimax Arctic 12 Studable-Winter Radial Tire - 235/45R18 98T

[CoastalWx]

Nam is pretty warm still.

[ineedsnow]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is pretty warm still.

cooled down from 18Z 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

cooled down from 18Z 

Just be happy to see flakes and anything else is gravy.    Enjoy your first winter in the snow belt of SNE.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

cooled down from 18Z 

It’s cold at the surface, but beware the warm tongue aloft.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s cold at the surface, but beware the warm tongue aloft.

The NAM usually leads the pack with modeling that mid-level, atmospheric dildo of snow death.