November 15-16 Snowfall Potential

[cyclone77]

Had very light snow off and on since last night but poor rates and marginal temps lead to no accum.  Will finish event with 1".

[Geoboy645]

Ended up snowing pretty much the entire day yesterday here. Most of it was white rain though, with only about an inch accumulation when it cooled off overnight. This is would be a pretty good setup in about another month, easily could've gotten 5-6 inches or more if it was colder at the surface.

[Chicago Storm]

22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Event and day total of 1.0" here at ORD, so far at least.

Snow started early this morning and accumulated efficiently until a bit after sunrise. After that, snow continued through the morning and into the midday, but as 'white rain'. The early morning snowfall accumulation on the ground melted by early afternoon.

Much of the afternoon featured -RA, before transitioning to -RA/SN this evening, and now finally back to -SN.

Additional periods of -SN today, but it didn't amount to anything with temps in the mid 30's and poor rates.

Final event total stands at 1.0" here at ORD.

[Jebman]

Not sure whether this is the right subforum, but snow discussions are sure interesting.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a weak surface
low exiting the region across the St Lawrence Valley, as a deep
trough pivots across the Great Lakes region. Cold air behind this
surface low will produce relatively disorganized lake effect
precipitation through the remainder of the day. Temperatures early
this afternoon continue to hover in the 30s, marginal enough to
allow for a mix of rain, snow, and even some graupel to fall east of
the lakes. A rapid changeover to all snow will occur this evening as
cold air continues to pour into the region, with LE activity
becoming better organized. This will mark the beginning of our
prolonged, significant lake effect snow event. For accumulations
today however...A few inches of wet snow can be expected across
portions of the Boston Hills, Wyoming County, and Chautauqua
Ridge by nightfall...And a more widespread slushy coating across
the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

Heading into this evening, lake effect will be intensifying off Lake
Erie, while the intensity really ramps up off Lake Ontario during
the second half of tonight. The intensifying lake effect will be
partially due to the removal of diurnal mixing, but more importantly
due to a deepening colder airmass, equilibrium levels (cap) shooting
upwards of 15-17kft as the mid level trough approaches, lowering of
DGZ into much better moisture field and strong lift within the DGZ.
With that said, have upgraded Wyoming and Lewis counties to Lake
Effect Snow Warnings.

The warmth of Lake Erie will promote thermal surface troughing
and a 10 deg or so backing of the flow. This will direct the
heaviest lake snows closer to the lakeshore so that the northern
portion of Chautauqua, northwestern Cattaraugus, far western
Wyoming and southern Erie county receive the brunt of the snow.
There will be a lesser impact of warmer lake waters on the
steering flow off Lake Ontario, but still expect the band to be
some 5-10 miles further north than advertised by most guidance.
This will target the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug
(southwestern Lewis county) and much of Oswego county. Snowfall
tonight east of Lake Erie will range from 5-10 inches near the
Chautauqua ridge/northwestern Cattaraugus and western Wyoming
county, to possibly near a foot across some of the higher
terrain across southern Erie county. Snowfall rates of 1"+/hour
could occur across portions of southern Erie county late this
evening into the early overnight hours.

Off Lake Ontario expect 3 to 6 inches over a good portion of Oswego
county east across the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill
in southwestern Lewis County, with the bulk of that coming during
the second half of tonight. Given the amount of lift, higher cap and
depth of the mixed phase layer, have kept some thunder and lightning
in each area of lake effect...staying within 10-15 miles of each
lake (ie. source of instability). Low temps will be in the 20s
across the area tonight.

A 270-280 flow will be in place over both lakes on Thursday
with a similar capping inversion height. Lake effect snow will
continue off both lakes, however the heaviest snow will fall
across Oswego and southwestern Lewis county Thursday morning
when snowfall rates may top 1"/hr impacting the morning commute.
An additional 6-10 inches of snow is expected here during the
day, again with a good portion of that falling during the
morning hours into the early afternoon. Off Lake Erie,
additional daytime snowfall will range from 3 to 5 inches across
the warned areas. Overall, the lake effect machine will weaken
some later Thursday afternoon, before quickly ramping up again
later Thursday evening. Outside of the lake effect areas, expect
just mainly partly to mostly cloudy skies. Otherwise, it will
be brisk and chilly with high temps ranging from around the
freezing mark across the higher terrain to mainly the mid 30s
across the rest of the area.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Some minor accumulation on colder surfaces.

Ended up getting some whitening on paved surfaces too.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Up to 4” here from the multiple bouts of light snow the past several days. 

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Ended up getting some whitening on paved surfaces too.

Same over here. First evening commute with snow on the pavement. Was just a couple mile zone between work and home where there must've been a decent band come through. Looked like a legit snow there. A mile south at my place = another dab so I'm officially at 0.2" for this event. 

[Brian D]

11 hours ago, Brian D said:

3.5" here in town last night, with large storm totals NE of me up the shore. BTW, it is still snowing up in these areas this morning, so a few more inches on tap for them as this won't be clearing out until late tomorrow. Incredible totals for mid Nov.

And the winner is Hovland up there near the NE tip of the state with 29". Bam! That's just a wee bit of snow.

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, Brian D said:

And the winner is Hovland up there near the NE tip of the state with 29". Bam! That's just a wee bit of snow.

I always know if it's a good "winter" when drifts are from more than just the W. Same could be said about who's getting dumped on with LES. 

[frostfern]

Impressive silver dollar flakes on and off today.  Its not the heaviest in terms of visibility reduction or rapid accumulation, but the flakes are magnificent dendrites.