November 15-16 Snowfall Potential

[Geoboy645]

Moving this to the right topic. Something pretty weird could happen in this timeframe. We might get a lake-effect event on the west side of Green Bay. It is pretty hard to get any lake effect off of Green Bay period, as there is only a few weeks where it is still open and cold enough for snow. But to get the wind out of the right direction to get it on the west side of the bay is pretty rare. I don't know exactly how common this is, but I'm estimating this probably only happens a couple of times a decade.  

[sbnwx85]

The lake-effect definitely over performed on this side of the lake on Saturday night. Most models indicted 2-4 inches of snow, except the HRRR which had 6+, and I ended up with 7 inches. Also, Benton Harbor (right along the lake) had 8 inches of snow on Saturday night. 

[Chicago Storm]

8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

The lake-effect definitely over performed on this side of the lake on Saturday night. Most models indicted 2-4 inches of snow, except the HRRR which had 6+, and I ended up with 7 inches. Also, Benton Harbor (right along the lake) had 8 inches of snow on Saturday night. 

Quality info here.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

The lake-effect definitely over performed on this side of the lake on Saturday night. Most models indicted 2-4 inches of snow, except the HRRR which had 6+, and I ended up with 7 inches. Also, Benton Harbor (right along the lake) had 8 inches of snow on Saturday night. 

Thanks for the input.

Went back and looked at that one.  850 mb temps were -10C, which is colder than what we'll have tomorrow into Wednesday.  I can see why -10C with organized lake effect would be able to get heavy amounts pretty much up to the shore.

[sbnwx85]

Yeah, I thought the setup might be a little different. Honestly, no two lake effect events are exactly alike. 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks for the input.

Went back and looked at that one.  850 mb temps were -10C, which is colder than what we'll have tomorrow into Wednesday.  I can see why -10C with organized lake effect would be able to get heavy amounts pretty much up to the shore.

11-12-13 when I worked in St. Joe we had 17" of LES literally across the street from lake front property. Not sure the parameters during that event, but the winds were more parallel to the roughly N-S shoreline, not perpendicular like Chicago will see. 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

11-12-13 when I worked in St. Joe we had 17" of LES literally across the street from lake front property. Not sure the parameters during that event, but the winds were more parallel to the roughly N-S shoreline, not perpendicular like Chicago will see. 

I remember that one to some extent.  I know it was colder than what Tue-Wed will be.

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I remember that one to some extent.  I know it was colder than what Tue-Wed will be.

Yes, it was a true LES-only event on a cold northerly blast. There were 2 that Nov about 10 days apart. The 2nd one's jackzone was about 5 miles inland but with the same NNW wind vector post CF passage. 

[RogueWaves]

Just in..massive storm flashed on model around Turkey Day buries Chicago and much of The Mitt

[Thundersnow12]

0z weenie HRRR run for ORD. Nearly 1.25” of QPF.


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[RogueWaves]

6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

0z weenie HRRR run for ORD. Nearly 1.25” of QPF.


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@ 5:1 what's that yield?

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

0z weenie HRRR run for ORD. Nearly 1.25” of QPF.


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Yeah, even more bullish than before.

[Hoosier]

Imagine this with a colder setup

[OHweather]

This is a tough call for right along the lake...our couple of LES events recently have struggled to produce all snow up to the lake until 850mb temps get to about -8C (they've been mixing to the lake at like -5 or -6C if it's heavy enough but not fully going to snow until a bit colder). I'm guessing that between the marginal 850mb temps, onshore wind, urban influence that it'll be tough in Chicago...there could be a window Tuesday night into early Wednesday if surface winds can back more offshore before the lake enhanced band shifts east. 

[Hoosier]

42 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This is a tough call for right along the lake...our couple of LES events recently have struggled to produce all snow up to the lake until 850mb temps get to about -8C (they've been mixing to the lake at like -5 or -6C if it's heavy enough but not fully going to snow until a bit colder). I'm guessing that between the marginal 850mb temps, onshore wind, urban influence that it'll be tough in Chicago...there could be a window Tuesday night into early Wednesday if surface winds can back more offshore before the lake enhanced band shifts east. 

Definitely think that is the window to watch for the city proper.  It's an extreme thread the needle though because they'll need to be perfectly positioned on the western end of the convergence area to take advantage of winds flipping more offshore, but not so much that the activity gets shunted quickly east.

[OHweather]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely think that is the window to watch for the city proper.  It's an extreme thread the needle though because they'll need to be perfectly positioned on the western end of the convergence area to take advantage of winds flipping more offshore, but not so much that the activity gets shunted quickly east.

For sure, just saw you commented similar on the prior page. The place to be will be inland a bit where it's not quite as warm but you still get the added benefit of lake enhancement, anything near the lakeshore is more of a parting gift if it works out. 

[Hoosier]

This will get wetbulbed down as precip moves in, but it gives a sense of the marine influence west of Lake Michigan

[A-L-E-K]

Heavy white rain as expected lake side, great flake size, office could do well

 

[Mogget]

Beautiful snow here in southern Wisconsin which I would like to sit and watch but must get to work early to avoid First Snow of the Year Crashes…

[A-L-E-K]

10 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

0z weenie HRRR run for ORD. Nearly 1.25” of QPF.


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take it to the bank (ftx)

[mimillman]

Pretty big difference between neighborhoods and downtown on my way to work this AM. Downtown is rain/snow mix, Wicker Park was all snow beginning to accumulate on side roads.

[cyclone77]

About a half inch down here.  Pixies here atm.

[tuanis]

Snowfall rate is either more impressive than radar would indicate or the first snowfall of the year has thrown me off. Closing in on an inch and sticking a bit to the driveway and road. I suppose this event locks in a green Christmas 

[Malacka11]

Already have like 1.5 to 2 inches OTG here in Plainfield 

[Chicago Storm]

LES potential continues to trend downward on a lot of guidance (Not including the HRRR mirage that faded).


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[sbnwx85]

The sun is out here. 

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/12/2022 at 11:24 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Would be lightly hyped if cold, but since warm and winds off lake going dab

Nice to see euro still the premier fantasy snow model

would have been a good event imby if just a tad colder, underperforming at the office near rosemont 

[Malacka11]

It's been snowing here in Aurora for hours consistently now. Since I'm southwest of where the lake enhancement was *supposed* to maximize, I'm very happy with even this much. Flake size is decent and everything but roads are just warm enough for it to not be a shit show.

[Chicago Storm]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

would have been a good event imby if just a tad colder, underperforming at the office near rosemont 

I don’t know, I’d say everything has gone about as I expected at least… Dusting to 2” area wide, locally higher.

ORD is around 1” for the event.


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[madwx]

probably got an inch on the grass.  nothing but slush on roads.   seems like it'll be a pretty even matchup between snow rates and melting through the rest of the daylight hours today