SnOvechkin Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The GFS has consistently shown an Indiana into Ohio snowstorm for Thursday night and the Euro now agrees. Where is the thread? Where is the discussion at all? GFS drops up to 20" at 10:1. Obviously much less would accumulate with the warm surface, but we are talking about 1-2" per hour for 12 hours; This would be a major storm and the Euro now also shows a deep Low over OH on Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: No flakes for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, SnOvechkin said: The GFS has consistently shown an Indiana into Ohio snowstorm for Thursday night and the Euro now agrees. Where is the thread? Where is the discussion at all? GFS drops up to 20" at 10:1. Obviously much less would accumulate with the warm surface, but we are talking about 1-2" per hour for 12 hours; This would be a major storm and the Euro now also shows a deep Low over OH on Friday morning Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 hours ago, Chinook said: The GEFS members have temps above freezing for much of this time frame 4 hours ago, mimillman said: DTW gonna reel in a few inches. Detroit proper - not a chance. Points N maybe. If I had to put $$ I'd go with NMI (perhaps CMI) being cold enough. More cold rain in my forecast no doubt. Helps with low hydro so hard to complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 While it's a tenuous setup and the antecedent air mass isn't good, it has my attention since there's nothing else to track until possibly reshuffling the pattern later in the month.Aside from the late season like air mass, the synoptic pieces are good if things work out well: A juiced southern stream wave associated with the latest potent California AR event, deepening surface low tracking near the Ohio Valley into the eastern Lakes, and a 1030-1035 mb high pressure spreading in from the northern Plains. Not particularly optimistic yet for the Chicago metro since the improved GFS and ECMWF runs (vs 00z last night) still would put us too far northwest. But at least don't have to squint to see what we'd need to get a swath of heavy wet snow farther northwest: early enough negative tilt of the main wave and/or phasing or constructive interaction with an incoming northern stream wave. Unfortunately it remains a thread the needle type setup due to the air mass and needing things to break right as described above. It does have a more classic synoptic setup than the closed low depiction of GFS runs Saturday and prior that would be heavily reliant on dynamic cooling (while the ECMWF runs had no cold air to speak of), so *maybe* a bit better chance of success. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. And that's just for disco, lol. Getting anything to break right for this region has been like scoring on 4th and 60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, nwohweather said: What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in None of which has gone our way this winter or last. No matter how rosy model portrayals are, most of my qpf has fallen as liquid. I'm still shaking my head that I had to record a Storm Warning for what ended up being just 2.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in It's the catch 22 cross we bare here in NW OH. Too strong, NW trend and dry slot...Weaker and rides to our south. That track of the 12Z Euro is almost too perfect for us. Never seems to work out. Ya never do know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 58 minutes ago, Frog Town said: It's the catch 22 cross we bare here in NW OH. Too strong, NW trend and dry slot...Weaker and rides to our south. That track of the 12Z Euro is almost too perfect for us. Never seems to work out. Ya never do know though. Always. I mean our gold has always been the Apps Runner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 0z GFS trying to make things interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Thread for late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 18 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. And I argue that waiting for the Euro to show something is foolish. GFS has been the best performer this year medium range AINEC. (In terms of showing a threat... obviously none of them can nail details that far out, with all the cLiMaTe ChAnGe nonsense with which they're programmed) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said: And I argue that waiting for the Euro to show something is foolish. GFS has been the best performer this year medium range AINEC. (In terms of showing a threat... obviously none of them can nail details that far out, with all the cLiMaTe ChAnGe nonsense with which they're programmed) I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 SnOvechkin has risen up from out of nowhere. Been here 8 years and is now posting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: SnOvechkin has risen up from out of nowhere. Been here 8 years and is now posting. lmao I was in Vegas and California. I used to post on the old East Coast Weather Forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce. Silly me for noticing that the GFS is always ahead of the curve. Now that the EC is showing what the GFS has been printing for, oh, three days we have your attention. Cute. Why do they even run the GFS? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce. Also you lose an argument when you start name-calling. Which means you lost before it even began. Excuse me while I pick up this W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said: Silly me for noticing that the GFS is always ahead of the curve. Now that the EC is showing what the GFS has been printing for, oh, three days we have your attention. Cute. Why do they even run the GFS? lol If you were paying attention you'd know that the GFS was lagging a full day behind literally every other model with this storm until about two days ago. No idea where you're getting your info from. I also have no intention of arguing with you because people that actually think climate change doesn't exist are beyond reason. There was never a W to pick up in the first place. Dumbass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Another Rainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: SnOvechkin has risen up from out of nowhere. Been here 8 years and is now posting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: If you were paying attention you'd know that the GFS was lagging a full day behind literally every other model with this storm until about two days ago. No idea where you're getting your info from. I also have no intention of arguing with you because people that actually think climate change doesn't exist are beyond reason. There was never a W to pick up in the first place. Dumbass. I don't share his stance on climate change, but let's face it, there really isn't anything that an individual person can do to impact the climate in a meaningful way. And even if everybody in the United States including all of our politicians believed in climate change... great. What about the rest of the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Another Rainer Hey, at least it's moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't share his stance on climate change, but let's face it, there really isn't anything that an individual person can do to impact the climate in a meaningful way. And even if everybody in the United States including all of our politicians believed in climate change... great. What about the rest of the world? I agree that it's very obnoxious that society seems to try very hard to put the blame on individuals (plastic straws, etc) while we largely ignore the impact of industrial/corporate contributions. And yeah, the rest of the world is also gonna be a bitch. But as far as weather models are concerned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said: Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate Why can't both be factors? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said: Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate. Let's assume that you're right. Shouldn't we still try to stop the affects of whatever bullshit you're talking about? Don't exactly see why we'd be okay with losing land to the ocean. And rising temperatures are just one very small part of a much greater issue. You can't blame the sun for driving countless species to extinction or absolutely trashing the developed world. I don't get how greenhouse gasses are such a mystery to people. How does it not make sense to you that burning a fuck load of fuel and letting all of the products of the reaction sit in the atmosphere might not be a great idea for the future? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 20 hours ago, RogueWaves said: None of which has gone our way this winter or last. No matter how rosy model portrayals are, most of my qpf has fallen as liquid. I'm still shaking my head that I had to record a Storm Warning for what ended up being just 2.5" of snow. I would actually say a warning was warranted for the conditions. I was driving in them and it was quite brutal. Most roads had snow rutted much deeper than that, lots of places were 6 to 8" or more because of blowing from in nearby fields and what not Besides think of all the advisories DTW issues for what should be warnings. At the end of the day it's just the public's warning mechanism and nothing more. Also we really have not had much Winter rain in recent years so I can't really complain from that aspect, but I never ever want winter rain to begin with lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 re: "if you were paying attention two days ago GFS was lagging" Two days ago EC showed zero snow for any locations in the cont US aside from Washington State or Maine and a very weak (never reaching sub 1000mb) low spreading rain across the country while the GFS was already depicting a deepening low and a rain to moderate snow event for the midwest. vs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said: re: "if you were paying attention two days ago GFS was lagging" Two days ago EC showed zero snow for any locations in the cont US aside from Washington State or Maine and a very weak (never reaching sub 1000mb) low spreading rain across the country while the GFS was already depicting a deepening low and a rain to moderate snow event for the midwest. vs. I would argue that the Euro's thermal issues are no worse than the GFS being off by a day. Also let's wait till we see what actually happens before playing this game to begin with. Not even arguing that the GFS is that bad compared to the other models I just don't know why you feel the need to fellate it full force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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