Baum Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Rainer nice win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 It's more like a "nothinger" on the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 00z ECMWF has a low in Illinois with 34 degrees, wind, and snow at St. Louis on Black Friday. Essentially no model has been very consistent with what's happening around Thanksgiving/Black Friday. anybody know where it's going to rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Meanwhile the GEM is a start off as rain before a 4-8 snow transition event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 12Z Euro kinda tosses our sub a bone...kinda The trough axis is sitting in an ideal spot for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: 12Z Euro kinda tosses our sub a bone...kinda The trough axis is sitting in an ideal spot for a minute 18z GFS says, what bone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 2 hours ago, chuckster2012 said: 18z GFS says, what bone? Used to be Uncle Ukie's role 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Big bertha is back on the GFS... sort of. Bombs like crazy out east. Odds of that system being a good snow maker in the sub probably aren't terribly high, but you never know. It's why we watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 A 959 mb low up Boston's fanny with barely any snow to speak of. Some relatively small tweaks to this setup could make it snowier but overall, it's a marginal/thread the needle kind of thing and even if it ends up working out for somebody, it may be outside our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 There should some code written into the model's algorithm that won't allow a solution with isobars packed that tightly past 96 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE.The needle does not look as if it will be thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE. The needle does not look as if it will be thread. No kidding. The model handling of this one has not been stellar to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Euro weeklies looking pretty cold for December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Everything about this fall feels like December is gonna be rockin....Teleconnections to boot! I'd rather have this weather now and have things turn quickly in early to mid December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Euro weeklies looking pretty cold for December. GFS showing extremely cold air in Canada next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 I'm stocking up on canned goods. The Buffalo event was a shot fired. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 I do like the potential going into December, you get ridging into Alaska and the eastern Aleutians which tends to be favorable for troughing in the west so we would at the very least have a storm track coming in from the southwest, if that ridge can tilt a bit northeastward you could dump down a good amount of cold air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 15 hours ago, Stebo said: I do like the potential going into December, you get ridging into Alaska and the eastern Aleutians which tends to be favorable for troughing in the west so we would at the very least have a storm track coming in from the southwest, if that ridge can tilt a bit northeastward you could dump down a good amount of cold air. All key Indices are pointing cold. Hopefully we can a favorable system or 2 to go along with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE.The needle does not look as if it will be thread.Some ENS are now threading the needle, with another incoming trough.Not a likely scenario, but I guess it’s something to watch if you’re looking for a fairly minor event across portions of IL/WI/IN/MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 12z GFS is palm tree weather through 384. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: 12z GFS is palm tree weather through 384. I'll take it. good luck with that. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: good luck with that. Yeah pattern definitely favors the opposite especially as you go into December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Looks bad We need precip more than anything right now. I'd gladly burn some of next month if it means putting down moisture for later on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Stebo said: We need precip more than anything right now. I'd gladly burn some of next month if it means putting down moisture for later on. Sad, but true. This Sunday's system has a shot at being the single wettest event since 2-17. If that doesn't paint the picture, I can't help explain it further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 First potential to watch will be late this upcoming week. A piece of the trough currently along the West Coast moves east across the CONUS, with the PV lobe in Canada departing back north.How quickly things evolve will greatly dictate track/strength of this potential.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Models are suggesting a possible big storm early to mid next week. The GFS is surging warmth well north, but the Euro and Canadian are more blocky, which allows for a west-east track and ample cold air to work with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Did the GFS undergo its late November "upgrade" as planned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 On 12/5/2022 at 1:19 PM, michsnowfreak said: Did the GFS undergo its late November "upgrade" as planned? Yes it did. Saw a few people of importance elsewhere on social mention that the new version rated much worse than the previous version, in many aspects. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 ride the euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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