Baum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 if we come out of this period high and dry on the snow front it could really get ugly for Chicago posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 rain, white rain, miss south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Near miss on Wed-Thurs system followed by cold push puts us in no mans land. Wonder if this CAD lasts longer than 12 days like December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Near miss on Wed-Thurs system followed by cold push puts us in no mans land. Wonder if this CAD lasts longer than 12 days like December new gig has me managing snow removal operations throughout the midwest for a national snow removal firm. Headed to Wisconsin today and if necessary Ohio next week. If the snow won't come to me I'll come to it. I'll provide real pics of what snow on the ground looks like for my friends in Chicago....snow piles,even, maybe 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3-4 wintry shots in the short to medium range, using ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS). 1/22-23 looks like a light deal. 1/25-26 moderate event, has potential higher ceiling Maybe a clipper-ish type system somewhere in-between the above and below 1/30-31 same as 1/25-26, but too far out to have much confidence I wouldn't get too high or too low with the op runs right now, as they're essentially just another ensemble member in the medium/long range. Just my opinion, but I'd rather be north of the modeled snow swath in the "long" short and medium range at this point, based off pattern on the ensembles. Regardless, best potential for a sustained wintry pattern (longer than 5 days) for a lot of us this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The good news is western New York will be at 200” by the end of the month and that evens out the national average, so really we’re all winners!! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Hear me out... We sniff out a quick 1-3" this Sunday and then sit in our wonderland until the real thumping comes later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 always been a fan of the Canadian model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Baum said: always been a fan of the Canadian model. And the beautiful little soul that is the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Next 10 days look very snowy on the Canadian for just about everyone. Euro and GFS leave north-central Indiana out of most of the action, offering a frustrating solution with heavy snowfall narrowly missing us every time, whether to the north or south. Meanwhile GDPS and GEM place us in a bulls-eye and leave us with 8" or more on the ground when all is said and done. Whatever happens, it looks like a lot of us will see a lot of snow next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The lake effect machine could be running at full throttle late next week around here. Water temp at mid-lake of Lake Michigan is in the low 40's. It's the one positive of a warm January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 there was a time long long ago in a land far,far away where you could get a winter storm to move from New Orleans to Toledo. True story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Omg it's gonna snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Omg it's gonna snow this weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Omg it's gonna snow this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Baum said: there was a time long long ago in a land far,far away where you could get a winter storm to move from New Orleans to Toledo. True story. Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 That storm track looks so damn promising next week for Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 58 minutes ago, mimillman said: I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened. 2/24/16 (couldn't find my tracks map) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The 12z Euro shows a 2"er Saturday night/early Sunday for the QC. That would be the number 1 event of the season if we can somehow reel that puppy in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: That storm track looks so damn promising next week for Toledo I'm going to go on limb here and safely say it'll likely won't work out for Toledo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The weekend deal is a step back from some of the GFS runs that had earlier phasing. That looks unlikely now. The southern wave gets embedded in the northern stream trough but not quite a full phase until later Sunday-Sunday night off to the east. Overall enough large scale ascent at the mid and upper levels plus saturation in the DGZ for light to moderate snow rates and accumulations. Current global and majority of ensemble guidance evolution would suggest that suppression by the northern stream is less likely but the ceiling for snow amounts is probably up to 3-4" if enhanced banding materializes and a general 1-3" otherwise.Suppression remains on the table if there's destructive interference between the northern stream and southern stream. Also some of the op models and ensemble members, most notably the GFS, are gapping some areas due to subsidence outside of banding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 15 hours ago, dmc76 said: I'm going to go on limb here and safely say it'll likely won't work out for Toledo. Why? A gulf low running up to along the Ohio River is a historically great track for the lower Great Lakes in general before transferring off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 still think a small thread for the 1-4" event Saturday night could be done. FYI....this is as of now the biggest accumulation event of the season for me, potentially. ooofff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 still think a small thread for the 1-4" event Saturday night could be done. FYI....this is as of now the biggest accumulation event of the season for me, potentially. ooofff.Lawns are legit turning back green in some areas up by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 29 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Lawns are legit turning back green in some areas up by me. Sus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Same here actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The RGEM blew a little life back into this Sunday's system. Bit more of a phase. Curious?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Lawns are legit turning back green in some areas up by me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 00Z NAM pushes Sunday light event south and east from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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