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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

I'm getting January 2012 vibes big time.

Well 2012 was a lousy severe weather season because it never rained, let alone stormed, from about March through sometime in September. I think there were only four tornadoes in Wisconsin all year. Since then I became a firm believer that we need to have a snowback to melt off in the spring in order to not set the table for a drought.

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Feel like this is one of those times when the CPC maps can be misleading.  It's not an inferno regime, but it is pretty high confidence for modestly to moderately warmer than average.

Misleading a bit, yes. But from a sensible weather standpoint, Chicago's average high in January is ~31 degrees. So warmer than average pushes us to the wrong side of the freeze line for those who enjoy such things. 

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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well 2012 was a lousy severe weather season because it never rained, let alone stormed, from about March through sometime in September. I think there were only four tornadoes in Wisconsin all year. Since then I became a firm believer that we need to have a snowback to melt off in the spring in order to not set the table for a drought.

June and July were pretty active, at least for the eastern/southern lakes and Ohio Valley

In Detroit, 7/4 featured numerous late-day hail cores & flash flooding across the area after temps surged to a near-record high of 101*F with mostly sunny skies. That was followed by an early morning squall line on 7/5 that produced widespread wind damage.

Then of course, there was the notorious 6/29 - 6/30 derecho that tracked from Chicago to DC.

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On 12/24/2022 at 4:47 PM, michsnowfreak said:

@Mimillman, here's the graphic. Wonder when they will release 1991-2020.

 

Screenshot_20221224_174607_Gallery.jpg

1991-2020 is out now. Although the map definitely has some issues, for example Gaylord & Kalkaska normals should have them in the red

annual_snowfall_normals_9120.png

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1 hour ago, Danny8 said:

1991-2020 is out now. Although the map definitely has some issues, for example Gaylord & Kalkaska normals should have them in the red

annual_snowfall_normals_9120.png

Interesting to see such low totals in these parts compared to the previous map. I believe at one point the average snowfall in South Bend was near 70" per year. The data I can find now shows it is 62.5" per year. I wonder if that number will drop again with this latest release.

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The 00z GFS changes the look of the system in the late week. It moves up the low pressure timing at Toledo to Friday, 03z (really, Thursday, 10:00PM). It with a stronger low pressure, at 996mb. It has the rain/snow transition in Michigan/Indiana, with something like 11-14" of snow at Howell, Michigan, depending on 10:1 or Kuchera snow ratios. Kucheras are lower than 10:1. I know, it's at 5 days out or maybe 6 days out, which means that it will trend in some direction. It almost certainly will trend towards less than 11-14" of snow for any area in the Midwest. And the Canadian global model says, "what storm?"

As of right now, some ECMWF and GFS ensemble members have a pretty high QPF for southeast Michigan.

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26 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The 00z GFS changes the look of the system in the late week. It moves up the low pressure timing at Toledo to Friday, 03z (really, Thursday, 10:00PM). It with a stronger low pressure, at 996mb. It has the rain/snow transition in Michigan/Indiana, with something like 11-14" of snow at Howell, Michigan, depending on 10:1 or Kuchera snow ratios. Kucheras are lower than 10:1. I know, it's at 5 days out or maybe 6 days out, which means that it will trend in some direction. It almost certainly will trend towards less than 11-14" of snow for any area in the Midwest. And the Canadian global model says, "what storm?"

As of right now, some ECMWF and GFS ensemble members have a pretty high QPF for southeast Michigan.

Send it. 

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