Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are suggesting a possible big storm early to mid next week.  The GFS is surging warmth well north, but the Euro and Canadian are more blocky, which allows for a west-east track and ample cold air to work with.

High ENS support for this potential as well.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

 

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Thx! 18z Euro looking pretty good still, despite all the "warm talk" (Chicago not withstanding)

[IWXwx]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Never gets old

[hawkeye_wx]

Next week's big storm is quickly turning into a Dakotas special.

[CheeselandSkies]

Remember what I said about have a holly, jolly tornado chase? Forecast sounding near Beardstown/Macomb, IL. Yes, it's a week out but verbatim the pattern is eerily similar to last December 15th.

[Baum]

42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Next week's big storm is quickly turning into a Dakotas special. 

if your model watching a storm 5 -7 days out in early to  mid December in such a changeable  pattern and thinking they are on to something, good luck. At this point, I just look for a consistent storm signal somewhere on the models with an influx of cold and gulf moisture. I'll worry about the track later. It'll probably bury Paducah.

[Chicago Storm]

if your model watching a storm 5 -7 days out in early to  mid December in such a changeable  pattern and thinking they are on to something, good luck. At this point, I just look for a consistent storm signal somewhere on the models.

someone gets it.


.

[Malacka11]

Plus, I'm pretty sure we had at least one big early-season Dakotas storm that ended up states south (albeit a rainy mess but still).

[Cary67]

A wetter pattern for the Western Great Lakes region seems attainable.

[hardypalmguy]

55 minutes ago, Baum said:

if your model watching a storm 5 -7 days out in early to  mid December in such a changeable  pattern and thinking they are on to something, good luck. At this point, I just look for a consistent storm signal somewhere on the models with an influx of cold and gulf moisture. I'll worry about the track later. It'll probably bury Paducah.

it gon rain

[hardypalmguy]

Holy smokes -- and we have legit palm tree weather.

[Baum]

^

that's quite the warm sector on that pattern changer cyclone. Nice to get in mid December versus Mid January this year.

[hardypalmguy]

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

that's quite the warm sector on that pattern changer cyclone. Nice to get in mid December versus Mid January this year.

pattern change from very warm to just modest warm? 

[Chicago Storm]

cromartie providing a lot of bump worthy material for down the road.

[Malacka11]

We're gonna do it, just another tick or two south on the GEM and a massive cave on all other models and we're good. 

[Malacka11]

Definitely some visible changes on GEFS too. 

[sbnwx85]

Lake effect behind next week's system has some potential. 

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Lake effect behind next week's system has some potential. 

LES. Prolly your best ingredient this winter

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/6/2022 at 2:30 PM, hardypalmguy said:

Holy smokes -- and we have legit palm tree weather.

but is it though?

[ChiTownSnow]

It's the new age.. Where facts don't matter.  

[hardypalmguy]

17 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

but is it though?

palms laugh at low 40s.

[jlauderdal]

palms laugh at low 40s.

Palms like a break from the heat, 40s for awhile are good.

[cyclone77]

Next thing to watch is the little clipper coming through on boxing day for the central/western portions of the sub.  Unfortunately it looks like it will be on the decline as it moves in, but hopefully the models are weakening it a little too quickly.

[ChiTownSnow]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:36 AM, cyclone77 said:

Next thing to watch is the little clipper coming through on boxing day for the central/western portions of the sub.  Unfortunately it looks like it will be on the decline as it moves in, but hopefully the models are weakening it a little too quickly.

Latest guidance keeps it together a little bit.

[mimillman]

Sorry I was posting about this in the other medium range thread.

I like this one for widespread 1-4” in DVN and LOT. I think these clippers, particularly the more potent ones, routinely overachieve and tend to move further north with time.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Sorry I was posting about this in the other medium range thread.

I like this one for widespread 1-4” in DVN and LOT. I think these clippers, particularly the more potent ones, routinely overachieve and tend to move further north with time.

Will be interesting to see if people are a little gunshy if it trends better after what just happened.  Can't really compare this setup to the current one though.

[ChiTownSnow]

This one's a little bit more predictable. Although with the cold temperatures we got to watch higher ratios and amounts that bump it up to advisory level

[Baum]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Will be interesting to see if people are a little gunshy if it trends better after what just happened.  Can't really compare this setup to the current one though.

I'd issue a watch with this afternoons package to be on the safe side. All kidding aside, given the wind and cold with this event you can see why the early watches were issued. If we had a foot with this thing...good luck.