Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Culture has arrived. They even built a new fine arts center

 

Had my 20th reunion this summer, was a real trip

[Hoosier]

Indianapolis is over 2", which is a new daily record snowfall. 

It's also the 3rd year in the past 25 years that IND has received at least 2" before Nov 15.  They are 1997, 2019, 2022

[Hoosier]

2.7" at IND.

[IWXwx]

Still snowing, but not accumulating. Finished with 2.2"

 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indianapolis is over 2", which is a new daily record snowfall. 

It's also the 3rd year in the past 25 years that IND has received at least 2" before Nov 15.  They are 1997, 2019, 2022

Let this be the 1 in 3 chance that it's a good omen. The other two weren't 

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Let this be the 1 in 3 chance that it's a good omen. The other two weren't 

I would completely disregard 1997, as that was the strong Nino winter.  Nothing like that this time.

I dug more into IND's early snowfalls, and it's very unusual for them to only go 3 years since the last 2" snowfall before 11/15.  On the other hand, the 22 year gap between 1997 and 2019 was unusually long.

[sbnwx85]

Let the winter magic begin!

[vortex]

Friend from down near Effingham, IL sent this pic from this morning.  

[michsnowfreak]

Snowy day today was a bit unexpected. Banded snow made its way to Southeast Michigan. Accumulations were from DTW south and east. Picked up 1.0" here on 0.21" liquid (first measurable precip of Nov). DTW 0.5".  The jackpot was just South of me with around 2". North of Detroit there were no accumulations.

[sbnwx85]

Absolutely ripping. Lake effect machine is turned all the way up.

[sbnwx85]

An over achiever on the first snow of the year. 7.3 inches north of South Bend.

[RogueWaves]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snowy day today was a bit unexpected. Banded snow made its way to Southeast Michigan. Accumulations were from DTW south and east. Picked up 1.0" here on 0.21" liquid (first measurable precip of Nov). DTW 0.5".  The jackpot was just South of me with around 2". North of Detroit there were no accumulations.

Screwed again in Canton wrt anything heavy enough to stick.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Screwed again in Canton wrt anything heavy enough to stick.

It'll be interesting to see if the upcoming system accumulates more efficiently, especially on the paved surfaces (a lot of pics I saw from yesterday were mainly grassy).  The cold has had some more time to settle in now.

[michsnowfreak]

28 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Screwed again in Canton wrt anything heavy enough to stick.

It was basically 94 south. It was 5-1 ratio. A few degrees and I'd have had 2" instead of 1".

[IWXwx]

My 2.2" yesterday was on .22" of precip, so exactly 10:1

[sbnwx85]

Will post this information here since it’s really outside the dates of the event thread ongoing.  IWX is all in on a relatively widespread lake effect event in Michiana. Potential for a foot or more in some places. 

LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

Elongating/sharpening upper trough through the wrn lakes of sig
concern this period. 12Z guidance a bit stronger/deeper aloft and
dig primary nrn stream wave through srn IL/IN late Wed. While lake
based thermal trough not as strong as was seen Sat, favorable long
axis fetch combined with good synoptic moisture plume will enhance
otherwise strongly forced focused single band during the day/evening
Wed over nw IN initially before backing into sw MI Wed night. Strong
multi-model consensus here lends confidence of sig, heavy snow
accums and no doubt impactful. However subtle differences on exact
placement/duration differ substantially enough to hold for another
model cycle before notching certain headlines. Nevertheless would
expect a fairly sizable swath of >6 inches northwest of a Knox-
Plymouth-Goshen-Sturgis line and potential for a foot or more in the
typical snowbelt from nrn Laporte/St Joe north through Cass/Berrien
by Thu aftn.

Elsewhere numerous snow showers expected far west early Wed,
spreading east and south through Wed night before activity shifts
north into lower MI as upper trough swings through. Accums outside
lakeband influence though will remain limited, generally 1-2 inches.

 

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Will post this information here since it’s really outside the dates of the event thread ongoing.  IWX is all in on a relatively widespread lake effect event in Michiana. Potential for a foot or more in some places. 

LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

Elongating/sharpening upper trough through the wrn lakes of sig
concern this period. 12Z guidance a bit stronger/deeper aloft and
dig primary nrn stream wave through srn IL/IN late Wed. While lake
based thermal trough not as strong as was seen Sat, favorable long
axis fetch combined with good synoptic moisture plume will enhance
otherwise strongly forced focused single band during the day/evening
Wed over nw IN initially before backing into sw MI Wed night. Strong
multi-model consensus here lends confidence of sig, heavy snow
accums and no doubt impactful. However subtle differences on exact
placement/duration differ substantially enough to hold for another
model cycle before notching certain headlines. Nevertheless would
expect a fairly sizable swath of >6 inches northwest of a Knox-
Plymouth-Goshen-Sturgis line and potential for a foot or more in the
typical snowbelt from nrn Laporte/St Joe north through Cass/Berrien
by Thu aftn.

Elsewhere numerous snow showers expected far west early Wed,
spreading east and south through Wed night before activity shifts
north into lower MI as upper trough swings through. Accums outside
lakeband influence though will remain limited, generally 1-2 inches.

 

Todd Holston's discussions are usually...let's just say they're succinct. For him to write more than a couple of sentences says that he's pretty bullish. 

[RogueWaves]

On 11/13/2022 at 2:55 PM, michsnowfreak said:

It was basically 94 south. It was 5-1 ratio. A few degrees and I'd have had 2" instead of 1".

I don't mean to sound "down" on my new locale (I knew where I was going winter-wise after all), but I'm on a losing streak several winters long now and it's "show me the goods" mode for me, and well so far lame misses in all directions have been the rule. Need me a Jan 23, 2005 or GHD-2 level event to pull me out of the nosedive, lol. 

...WAYNE...
LINCOLN PARK              13.8
CANTON                    12.5
LIVONIA                   12.5
DETROIT METRO AIRPORT     12.2
BROWNSTOWN                12.1
WYANDOTTE                 11.0
REDFORD                    9.5
WESTLAND                   9.0

[mollydog]

I don't mean to sound "down" on my new locale (I knew where I was going winter-wise after all), but I'm on a losing streak several winters long now and it's "show me the goods" mode for me, and well so far lame misses in all directions have been the rule. Need me a Jan 23, 2005 or GHD-2 level event to pull me out of the nosedive, lol. 

...WAYNE...LINCOLN PARK              13.8CANTON                    12.5LIVONIA                   12.5DETROIT METRO AIRPORT     12.2BROWNSTOWN                12.1WYANDOTTE                 11.0REDFORD                    9.5WESTLAND                   9.0

Where are you now, Rogue? I am still in Auburn Hills. 1-75 and M59. I like my spot north of 59. I usually see about 10” of bonus snow over DTW.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[RogueWaves]

16 minutes ago, mollydog said:

Where are you now, Rogue? I am still in Auburn Hills. 1-75 and M59. I like my spot north of 59. I usually see about 10” of bonus snow over DTW.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yeah, you're in the prime area - far northern burbs. I'm in Canton, hence that list from the '05 near bliz showing Canton doing very well. Last winter was my first here, and even DTW and downriver region has outperformed this place. Just crap luck bad timing no doubt. I'm sure I beat Coleman A. Young airport for instance. This can't be the worst place around, even if it feels like it.  

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I don't mean to sound "down" on my new locale (I knew where I was going winter-wise after all), but I'm on a losing streak several winters long now and it's "show me the goods" mode for me, and well so far lame misses in all directions have been the rule. Need me a Jan 23, 2005 or GHD-2 level event to pull me out of the nosedive, lol. 

...WAYNE...
LINCOLN PARK              13.8
CANTON                    12.5
LIVONIA                   12.5
DETROIT METRO AIRPORT     12.2
BROWNSTOWN                12.1
WYANDOTTE                 11.0
REDFORD                    9.5
WESTLAND                   9.0

I wonder what Canton got Feb 1, 2015?

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, you're in the prime area - far northern burbs. I'm in Canton, hence that list from the '05 near bliz showing Canton doing very well. Last winter was my first here, and even DTW and downriver region has outperformed this place. Just crap luck bad timing no doubt. I'm sure I beat Coleman A. Young airport for instance. This can't be the worst place around, even if it feels like it.  

I'm sure you did. I'm usually beating my sister in St Clair Shores.

[mollydog]

Yeah, you're in the prime area - far northern burbs. I'm in Canton, hence that list from the '05 near bliz showing Canton doing very well. Last winter was my first here, and even DTW and downriver region has outperformed this place. Just crap luck bad timing no doubt. I'm sure I beat Coleman A. Young airport for instance. This can't be the worst place around, even if it feels like it.  

Honestly, I do not like this year. I have seen all the outlooks and those analog years do NOT match up with this year overall. 2000-01 was wet and cold all year. Same with 76-77. Drought begets drought. I hate going into winter in a drought. Look at this system today. Just completely moisture starved as it headed for us. I know it wasn’t supposed to be much but it literally fizzled on arrival. Hope I am wrong! Good luck to you in Canton!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Baum]

^ ban

[A-L-E-K]

Thanksgiving rainer in the works?

[BeauDodson]

Is this the correct thread for the Buffalo area?

 

Thanks

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

what a blast from the past^

and yeah sure

[IWXwx]

34 minutes ago, BeauDodson said:

Is this the correct thread for the Buffalo area?

 

Thanks

 

 

Welcome back Beau. Kinda looks apocalyptic out there. Measurin' in feet. Poster BuffaloWeather is in Hamburg, which looks to be ground zero for 4-5 feet.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Welcome back Beau. Kinda looks apocalyptic out there. Measurin' in feet. Poster BuffaloWeather is in Hamburg, which looks to be ground zero for 4-5 feet.

Good God.  Gonna have to start paying attention to this.

And yes, welcome back Beau.

[sbnwx85]

The 7 inches of snow I picked up Saturday night is nearly all gone. There are a lot more green patches that white on the ground. Time to replenish.