Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 As usual, for the non-thread worthy events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Watch next week. Not a slam dunk given several moving pieces, but potential is there. Best looking November pattern for widespread cold and some snow potential across such a large portion of the sub-froum, since Nov 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Put medium range in the title too. That's what we've done before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 miss south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: miss south 12z GFS looks decent next week. Assuming this track holds relatively closely, we'll have to see about marine influence around Chicago as we get closer. The airmass aloft is not that chilly... I'd like to see it colder. If not rain mixed in, then it could be very sloppy/inefficient accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Kind of came out of no where, but a nice negatively tilted shortwave and the lift ahead of it will try to product some snow late tonight through Saturday as it lifts through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes. The lift isn't crazy but it's there, and the somewhat steep lapse rates in and above the DGZ may help some briefly more moderate pockets of precip develop. The main issue, especially farther south/east and especially as we head into the afternoon, will be marginal boundary layer temps, but a good shot many from southern MO/northern AR into southern IL, southern/eastern IN, northern/western KY, and a good portion of OH at least sees flakes out of this late tonight and tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 While there are model differences for the system next week, one signal with some agreement is for something that is not necessarily a quick hitter. Could be fairly dragged out, even if amounts aren't that high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 gonna be another 60 degree Christmas isn't it? ....based on early season threats...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baum said: gonna be another 60 degree Christmas isn't it? ....based on early season threats...... Smart money would be on a pullback/warmup later this month into the next, but hopefully it won't linger way into December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Baum said: gonna be another 60 degree Christmas isn't it? ....based on early season threats...... A normal November has snowfall opportunities. We're just not used to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A normal November has snowfall opportunities. We're just not used to it. True. Best ever, Thanksgiving 1975. And looking forward to an early season winter type week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A normal November has snowfall opportunities. We're just not used to it. 7 minutes ago, Baum said: True. Best ever, Thanksgiving 1975. And looking forward to an early season winter type week. To follow up on this... November snowfall totals in Chicago the past 20 years. As you can see, it has generally been all or nothing, with only a few in between. 2002: 4.7" 2003: T 2004: 5.1" 2005: 1.9" 2006: 0.4" 2007: 0.3" 2008: 0.6" 2009: T 2010: T 2011: T 2012: T 2013: 0.9" 2014: 2.8" 2015: 11.2" 2016: T 2017: 0.1" 2018: 12.7" 2019: 3.7" 2020: 0.7" 2021: T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: To follow up on this... November snowfall totals in Chicago the past 20 years. As you can see, it has generally been all or nothing, with only a few in between. 2002: 4.7" 2003: T 2004: 5.1" 2005: 1.9" 2006: 0.4" 2007: 0.3" 2008: 0.6" 2009: T 2010: T 2011: T 2012: T 2013: 0.9" 2014: 2.8" 2015: 11.2" 2016: T 2017: 0.1" 2018: 12.7" 2019: 3.7" 2020: 0.7" 2021: T And to follow up on the follow up... Below is the list of all years on record in Chicago to feature a November with 4.0"+ total snowfall. As you can see, the following December is usually split potential for above/below normal snowfall, and usually seasonal total snowfall ends up above average. 1891: 6.8"......5.5"......26.8" 1893: 7.5"......12.1".....48.2" 1895: 14.5".....3.4"......52.5" 1896: 4.2"......1.3"......41.2" 1927: 14.9".....10.0".....29.3" 1940: 14.8".....4.1"......49.0" 1941: 5.2"......1.7"......40.5" 1947: 6.2"......6.4"......40.6" 1950: 7.0"......27.1".....60.0" 1951: 14.3".....33.3".....68.3" 1953: 7.6"......5.4"......28.4" 1954: 5.7"......8.2"......44.2" 1955: 5.9"......2.1"......26.2" 1959: 6.6"......10.4".....44.1" 1972: 5.5"......10.3".....66.9" 1974: 5.1"......16.3".....53.7" 1975: 10.8".....11.7".....53.3" 1977: 6.3"......19.2".....64.3" 1978: 7.1"......31.4".....95.3" 1980: 5.1"......9.7"......48.8" 2002: 4.7"......8.0"......42.2" 2004: 5.1"......0.6"......29.0" 2015: 11.2".....4.5"......63.5" 2018: 12.7".....1.4"......44.8" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: A normal November has snowfall opportunities. We're just not used to it. 3 yrs ago this evening cleared my driveway of 7" of fresh snow. 8.5" on 11-29-11 and 12.5" on 11-22-15 are the biggies during the past 2 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 3 yrs ago this evening cleared my driveway of 7" of fresh snow. 8.5" on 11-29-11 and 12.5" on 11-22-15 are the biggies during the past 2 decades. I liked that 2015 storm, even though the heavier band occurred to my north. The conditions in the afternoon of the 21st were arguably the most intense I've ever witnessed in the month of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: And to follow up on the follow up... Below is the list of all years on record in Chicago to feature a November with 4.0"+ total snowfall. As you can see, the following December is usually split potential for above/below normal snowfall, and usually seasonal total snowfall ends up above average. 1891: 6.8"......5.5"......26.8" 1893: 7.5"......12.1".....48.2" 1895: 14.5".....3.4"......52.5" 1896: 4.2"......1.3"......41.2" 1927: 14.9".....10.0".....29.3" 1940: 14.8".....4.1"......49.0" 1941: 5.2"......1.7"......40.5" 1947: 6.2"......6.4"......40.6" 1950: 7.0"......27.1".....60.0" 1951: 14.3".....33.3".....68.3" 1953: 7.6"......5.4"......28.4" 1954: 5.7"......8.2"......44.2" 1955: 5.9"......2.1"......26.2" 1959: 6.6"......10.4".....44.1" 1972: 5.5"......10.3".....66.9" 1974: 5.1"......16.3".....53.7" 1975: 10.8".....11.7".....53.3" 1977: 6.3"......19.2".....64.3" 1978: 7.1"......31.4".....95.3" 1980: 5.1"......9.7"......48.8" 2002: 4.7"......8.0"......42.2" 2004: 5.1"......0.6"......29.0" 2015: 11.2".....4.5"......63.5" 2018: 12.7".....1.4"......44.8" my high school years rocked....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 They were p fun, minus the whole cary grove part, couldn't get out of that shithole fast enough Going dab final call 4 next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 BAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 NWS STL laughing at taking that L folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 NWS STL laughing at taking that L folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.Two issues with that… Most guidance did show snow that far north, and most guidance did show the potential for more snow than offices down there were forecasting, was was ranging from no snow up to 0.5”.On the flip side…There was very little support among guidance for anything really over 3” or so. So nonetheless, that band of 4-8” is still a surprise in the end.There was actually an event like this, which I believe may have been last winter, down in East-Central Illinois. It also occurred overnight/early morning, and dropped a localized/unexpected area of 6”+ snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: They were p fun, minus the whole cary grove part, couldn't get out of that shithole fast enough Going dab final call 4 next week Culture has arrived. They even built a new fine arts center 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I didn't have 6" of snow on my bingo card for this system...there is small band of mid-level fgen driving the heavier snow, and it is producing its strongest lift in the DGZ so you're getting ratio help. Pretty impressive for the Ohio Valley in the first half of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 A nice way to begin winter, waking up and looking at the HHHR. Made me check current obs and saw that stuff to the southwest heading this way. Sitting under that f-gen band and accumulating here now. Surprise!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Two issues with that… Most guidance did show snow that far north, and most guidance did show the potential for more snow than offices down there were forecasting, was was ranging from no snow up to 0.5”. On the flip side…There was very little support among guidance for anything really over 3” or so. So nonetheless, that band of 4-8” is still a surprise in the end. There was actually an event like this, which I believe may have been last winter, down in East-Central Illinois. It also occurred overnight/early morning, and dropped a localized/unexpected area of 6”+ snow. Yeah I was expecting a dusting to a covering. Woke up to 3-4 inches. Farmington MO got 6. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 2" and still falling. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 RN/SN likely now per grids. Virga-fest attm. No SWS from DTX so not sure what to expect here? Will forcing overcome all the usual obstacles that plague metro D-town?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Free pumpkins. Pick up only. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: RN/SN likely now per grids. Virga-fest attm. No SWS from DTX so not sure what to expect here? Will forcing overcome all the usual obstacles that plague metro D-town?? It's trying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I didn't look at today's system much but did notice a "streaky" appearance to the qpf on the models I did check. That is often a good signal for banding, but obviously it really performed on the high end this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I didn't look at today's system much but did notice a "streaky" appearance to the qpf on the models I did check. That is often a good signal for banding, but obviously it really performed on the high end this time. We need that to be a seasonal trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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