40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/11/winter-2022-2023-promises-plenty-of-mid.html 21 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/11/winter-2022-2023-promises-plenty-of-mid.html Very detailed, nice work. Was looking forward to your outlook and you delivered! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 As always great work, I hope you are right about January. The mention of a once a generation type event with the potential to halt travel for a while caught my eye. The combination of factors you mentioned, with the drastic increase in water vapor due to the volcanic eruption last year, the frigid Canadian air and very mild ssts all creating the perfect storm for something big. Those same mild ssts that will likely screw us closer to the coast early could end up helping come mid winter before the blocking breaks down in Feb. It looks like you are thinking the large scale winter pattern will be an overall average East coast winter, with lots of ups and downs, no sustained snow blitz but no sustained blowtorch either. There isn’t an overwhelming blockbuster signal like 2014-2015, but there isn’t an overwhelming mild signal like the super nino in 2015-2016 so that seems reasonable, maybe a little less snow than last year in the Boston area and more snow NW like your area, Worcester ect. I would like to ask, you did mention that the way the month of November is progressing worried you about your analog composite somewhat I believe it was a week ago. If things were to deviate as a result of that, would that lead to more boom or more bust potential for this winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Now enjoy that vacation! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 36 minutes ago, George001 said: As always great work, I hope you are right about January. The mention of a once a generation type event with the potential to halt travel for a while caught my eye. The combination of factors you mentioned, with the drastic increase in water vapor due to the volcanic eruption last year, the frigid Canadian air and very mild ssts all creating the perfect storm for something big. Those same mild ssts that will likely screw us closer to the coast early could end up helping come mid winter before the blocking breaks down in Feb. It looks like you are thinking the large scale winter pattern will be an overall average East coast winter, with lots of ups and downs, no sustained snow blitz but no sustained blowtorch either. There isn’t an overwhelming blockbuster signal like 2014-2015, but there isn’t an overwhelming mild signal like the super nino in 2015-2016 so that seems reasonable, maybe a little less snow than last year in the Boston area and more snow NW like your area, Worcester ect. I would like to ask, you did mention that the way the month of November is progressing worried you about your analog composite somewhat I believe it was a week ago. If things were to deviate as a result of that, would that lead to more boom or more bust potential for this winter? I adjusted by adding a third 2020 and a 2010, and it made the discrepancy a bit more palatable. It's never going to be perfect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Nice work Tip….. I mean Ray. Good stuff and hopefully a great winter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I do love how the only place in New England with a low bias is Tolland CT lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Thanks for all your hard work on this, Ray. I look forward to digging into this over the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 This is so much better than NOAA just using standard ENSO climo for their forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Nice work even though I skipped through everything to see the predicted snow amounts. 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/11/winter-2022-2023-promises-plenty-of-mid.html Good morning 40/70 B. Well done. By reading your honest self evaluation of forecast vs result; I can sense that you have no future in politics. As always …. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nice work even though I skipped through everything to see the predicted snow amounts. I did the same thing, Ill read the rest over the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nice work even though I skipped through everything to see the predicted snow amounts. I expect most people to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, rclab said: Good morning 40/70 B. Well done. By reading your honest self evaluation of forecast vs result; I can sense that you have no future in politics. As always …. This is how I feel...I honestly don't get the sentiment that I am dishonest about my results. Thank you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Mild but snowy. Looks like December is going to follow the recent pattern at least here. Temps well above normal with a few isolated breaks. I'm dreaming of a mild, wet, green Christmas! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Hunga tunga got some press. Nice job. May you bust high on temps and low on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Ray your wife is a saint lol. What an effort. I need a few days to read it. I applaud your effort. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray your wife is a saint lol. What an effort. I need a few days to read it. I applaud your effort. A few days.. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray your wife is a saint lol. What an effort. I need a few days to read it. I applaud your effort. Holy moly. I’ve spent 45min and barely put a dent in it. I may have take a PTO day and read it on the desktop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ray your wife is a saint lol. What an effort. I need a few days to read it. I applaud your effort. Dude, I didn't know we were going to Miami/Bahamas until like Tuesday....I was shitting myself and hardly sleeping trying to bang that out. She was starting to get annoyed. That is why I didn't go more in depth on how the analog composite has done over the summer and how it looks for Novie. I may do a separate post on that when I get back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dude, I didn't know we were going to Miami/Bahamas until like Tuesday....I was shitting myself and hardly sleeping trying to bang that out. She was starting to get annoyed. That is why I didn't go more in depth on how the analog composite has done over the summer and how it looks for Novie. I may do a separate post on that when I get back. There is not anyone in wx history going back to knickers days that has done a more in depth , longer , detailed outlook . Unless you feel like you absolutely have to get even more data out.. honestly what you put out was great . Take a breath . Step back and enjoy the fam 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is not anyone in wx history going back to knickers days that has done a more in depth , longer , detailed outlook . Unless you feel like you absolutely have to get even more data out.. honestly what you put out was great . Take a breath . Step back and enjoy the fam Thanks, man. I feel like adding a third 2020 and a 2010 alleviated some of the issues that began emerging with the composite later in the fall. The work of @OHweatherreally made it clear as to why it helped. I love coming to similar conclusions through different methodologies...its so cool and adds confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, man. I feel like adding a third 2020 and a 2010 alleviated some of the issues that began emerging with the composite later in the fall. Did you send it to Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you send it to Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris ? Not specifically...but they are in my social media circle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Excellent job Ray! Was waiting for the release, and you definitely delivered. This is definitely one of those "read it a few times to take it all in" articles. I await my 27"-36" of snow (I always knock off 10% of whatever is predicted for PVD). Thanks for providing this to us, it was quite educational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Thanks for the write-up Ray. Good luck with it. Hoping to get some time up at Pit 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 This Cliff Notes version is great, I can't wait for the detailed treatise! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I’d love to hit the 40s again. I’ve had two of the last four seasons under 30”, one just shy of 45”, and another right at 30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Ray, your work ethic is amazing with this! Details and always learning opportunities. Thanks for taking the time and putting this out. Good luck on verification! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 How much for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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