MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion

[stormdragonwx]

9 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

That HRRR does look good for far NWA.  Where are you located?

Yeah I think south of 412 will be lucky to see an inch 2" tops. IMO

[StormChazer]

This is such a fine line between the have and have nots.

Someone here is going to get a technical white christmas(1 inch on the ground at 7AM Christmas Day).

At this point, it comes down to when the storm actually forms and starts moving through, then we will know who gets lucky with a moderate band of snow and who doesn't, that will make all the difference as I think this will be a hit or miss kind of situation.

Also, gotta watch out for some brief sleet and freezing rain as the front is moving through, might make roads slick.

 

 

[StormChazer]

I feel as if a picture is beginning to be painted.

All 3 of the global models(including the morning run of the Euro) have inched their way back into the Tulsa metro area and upped amounts in AR.

Also the 12Z run of the HRRR supports this (fwiw). Only the NAM is being a downer on this.

[MoWeatherguy]

1 hour ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Ste. Genevieve, MO. Right along the Mississippi, about two counties south of STL.

Ok cool.  I used to live in Dexter, MO and went to Cape a lot.  Nice country over there. 

[Wx 24/7]

Yeah, it is pretty consistent across the board. Not gangbusters in terms of snow, but a wild next 36 hours about to begin to unfold. 

[The Waterboy]

If the uptick in the Globals turns out to come to fruition I’d give two thumbs up to the ICON who has held steady with that solution for the last few days.  

[rockchalk83]

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

I feel as if a picture is beginning to be painted.

All 3 of the global models(including the morning run of the Euro) have inched their way back into the Tulsa metro area and upped amounts in AR.

Also the 12Z run of the HRRR supports this (fwiw). Only the NAM is being a downer on this.

Color me intrigued. If the afternoon high-res models continue to latch on, it maybe wagons up (slightly) with snowfall totals out here. But like Wx 24/7 was saying, this is going to be a crazy 36-48 hours for everyone. 

[MUWX]

I’d still heavily caution against getting your hopes but based on kuchera. The strong winds will be working hard against high ratios. Kuchera doesn’t factor that in 

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’d still heavily caution against getting your hopes but based on kuchera. The strong winds will be working hard against high ratios. Kuchera doesn’t factor that in 

I thought Kuchera only took into account the column temp below 500 mb? I don't think wind factors into any of the SLR equations at all. 

Still, though, I see where you're going. The wind is going to shred the dendrites and make them smaller, thus, harder to accumulate. 

[MUWX]

57 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I thought Kuchera only took into account the column temp below 500 mb? I don't think wind factors into any of the SLR equations at all. 

Still, though, I see where you're going. The wind is going to shred the dendrites and make them smaller, thus, harder to accumulate. 

 

[rockchalk83]

8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

 

Good pull. Thanks for that. 

[Wx 24/7]

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

I thought Kuchera only took into account the column temp below 500 mb? I don't think wind factors into any of the SLR equations at all. 

Still, though, I see where you're going. The wind is going to shred the dendrites and make them smaller, thus, harder to accumulate. 

Yeah, as the tweet mentions the accumulation estimate should probably be somewhere between 10:1 and the Kuchera. Probably more like 12:1. That being said... the drier snow will still wring out any available moisture. One thing I have been doing is looking at the precip totals and sort of gauging based off that in combination with the snowfall outputs. 

[Wx 24/7]

Also... just FYI... Wichita Police Department already urging non-essential traffic due to freezing drizzle they are receiving now. Roads are very slick apparently and numerous crashes are being reported. 

[stormdragonwx]

Indeed its always fun to be surprised by an over-performing storm but I feel more than likely this is what most of us will see.

[rockchalk83]

17 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Also... just FYI... Wichita Police Department already urging non-essential traffic due to freezing drizzle they are receiving now. Roads are very slick apparently and numerous crashes are being reported. 

People are losing their minds. A little light freezing drizzle/snow grains. Winter time in Wichita.

[StormChazer]

You all are most certainly right, but I'm going to be stubborn and continue posting kuchera amounts because a man can dream, haha.

 

Speaking of, here is the latest NAM, definite uptick in amounts.

[JoMo]

Springfield's morning AFD mentioned ratios of 16-17 to 1. 

[Wx 24/7]

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

Springfield's morning AFD mentioned ratios of 16-17 to 1. 

That is good to know! I think STL mentioned 12 or 14:1 a couple of days ago. I like your ratio better.

[JMT417]

6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Springfield's morning AFD mentioned ratios of 16-17 to 1. 

I think that is what may have contributed to issuing a Winter Storm Warning rather than a Winter Weather Advisory 

[The Waterboy]

This is probably more banter than anything but just saw this from NWS Cheyenne.  Mentions a flash freeze and heavy burst of snow:  

153 PM MST WED DEC 21 2022
Carbon County-

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Central Carbon County in south central Wyoming...

* Until 245 PM MST.

* At 151 PM MST, a dangerous snow squall was located 15 miles
northeast of Creston Junction, or 22 miles northwest of Rawlins,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Flash freeze on roads. Intense bursts of heavy snow and
gusty winds leading to blowing snow and rapidly falling
visibility. Wind gusts greater than 50 mph could knock
down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous
within minutes.

This includes Interstate 80 near Rawlins and roadways north of
Rawlins.

Locations impacted include...
Rawlins, Sinclair and Separation Lake.

[stormdragonwx]

TSA revising down their totals per their Decision Support page. Of course they have always been conservative on forecasting. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp

Though it does make me wonder if they are either following the NAM or ICON model. The latter has halved the totals from yesterday's runs, especially on the southern edge.

[rockchalk83]

18z Euro trended up again. Map is centered on Kansas. 

[StormChazer]

Recent runs of the HRRR are fixated on having sleet stick around in Tulsa for the first few hours of the event. Can’t say I agree with that.

[Will (little rock)]

Gonna head to the Missouri boot heel tomorrow for the snow, can’t help myself lol

[MUWX]

Starting to see some very faint returns on radar. I think we’re gonna have a decent period of freezing drizzle before the snow starts. 

[rockchalk83]

16 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Starting to see some very faint returns on radar. I think we’re gonna have a decent period of freezing drizzle before the snow starts. 

We have had light freezing drizzle/snow grains most of the day here in Central Kansas. It's the lift ahead of the front. Once that passes, it should be over. 

[NWAflizzard]

Cold front has moved through here in NW Arkansas. Temperature falling quickly. 

[stormdragonwx]

Yup its here. Just passed thru SE Fayettevlle. Had a nice shelf cloud with it too. Getting cold and windy quick.

[RocketWX]

Checking in from Wichita. At 12:30a last night my weather station showed 31.3F. Front blasted through and hasn't stopped falling. Currently sitting at -2.6F in a Snow Squall Warning. 

[StormChazer]

Don’t see snow squall warnings this close to home often….so far the roads have iced up here in Tulsa and there’s very light blowing snow, waiting for the main even to see how much we get.