JoMo Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Definitely the main threat with this system though as stated by Springfield's AFD. "NBM probabilities show the potential for wind gusts up to 50 mph Thursday into Friday, which may result in power outages." "These cold temperatures in combination with strong gusty winds will result in wind chill values near -30F Thursday night into Friday morning. For reference, the last time wind chills dropped below -30F at Springfield was in 1989. Frostbite will occur in 15 minutes or less in these conditions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 For what it’s worth (which may not be much) the ICON has continued to trend more in our favor over the last 5 runs. The 18z was actually pretty solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: For what it’s worth (which may not be much) the ICON has continued to trend more in our favor over the last 5 runs. The 18z was actually pretty solid. The icon moves the cold air in fast. I think that’s what needs to be watched the closest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 18z RGEM is slightly improved further south as well. We need that trend to continue. Right now I would say Wichita to Joplin look to be in decent shape. NW AR and Tulsa are borderline. Anything further south and west of that is suspect at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Evening euro trending in our favor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, MUWX said: The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models. The Icon has the right idea. Cold air is dense and always moves faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: The Icon has the right idea. Cold air is dense and always moves faster than forecast. Yeah here is the output data from that model. Its being more generous with the snow totals as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah here is the output data from that model. Its being more generous with the snow totals as well. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 And here's the 2m Temps during the day Thurs. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 00Z Euro. Definitely trended back to be a little more favorable for all of us. Looks like I might get that 30 mile shift I was hoping for earlier today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Here's some context as it relates to the rarity of a Wind Chill Warning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looking ahead, it does appear La Nina is (thankfully) beginning to loosen its grip and we'll be moving back into more of an ENSO neutral phase for the JFM period. Hopefully this will help back the storm track up and give us all some much needed moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like models are trending drier and further north again. As it sits I think outside of MO and KS we will see 1" maybe 2" at best. HRRR and 3km NAM are coming into range and seem to indicate the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Really quiet in here... morning model runs so no real dramatic changes to my thinking. Did see that the Canadian and EURO want to drop a clipper in on Monday now it appears. Something else to watch... Oh, to be in the Buffalo, NY area. Crazy winter they have had already! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, stormdragonwx said: Looks like models are trending drier and further north again. As it sits I think outside of MO and KS we will see 1" maybe 2" at best. I can't emphasize enough how much trouble 1" or so of snow, 40 mph winds, and temps dropping to near zero in a matter of hours can cause. This isn't going to be a huge snow, but the impacts are going to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Oh I am sure it will. It will be interesting to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, MUWX said: Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties. Make sense for them. I figured SGF would either today or tomorrow. You guys up there will have a lot more going on. Meanwhile TSA is continuing to dial back on the snow impacts and focusing on the wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Man, who killed the forum? lol Here is the 18z Euro. And the 00z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Perhaps they are like me and have been busily trying to finish their holiday shopping! I think the HRRR has a nice output this evening. Ignore the WRF! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I think we’re all too nervous! Regardless of the total amount of snow this storm will be crazy with the winds and temps. Will definitely be one to remember. My hope is that we are issued a blizzard warning. Pretty sure I’ve never been under one of those before in all my years. Keep the updates coming!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Nothing much to really update as the models are basically all falling into line. Generally a light snowfall, gusty winds, and really cold temps on the way for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Still think I can squeeze 2 inches out here in north Tulsa county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 For what it's worth: the 9Z SREF run has a noticeable uptick in qpf for much of the area. In fact, the snow plumes for K.C. jumped to a mean of 5" at 9Z. The mean was 1.5" in the previous run. This should result in a noticeable uptick in qpf for the 12Z suite of NAMs. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Here are the last three runs of the SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Winter weather advisory issued for Northwest Arkansas. Our forecast calls for 1-3 inches. The advisory says that near blizzard like conditions will briefly be possible behind the front: ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard like conditions will briefly be possible behind the front with greatly reduced visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm deliberately ignoring the NAM and the GFS, closing my eyes and plugging my ears and going "LALALALALA," in fact... and hugging the 12z HRRR, which gives me 3-5" depending on ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: I'm deliberately ignoring the NAM and the GFS, closing my eyes and plugging my ears and going "LALALALALA," in fact... and hugging the 12z HRRR, which gives me 3-5" depending on ratios. That HRRR does look good for far NWA. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: That HRRR does look good for far NWA. Where are you located? Ste. Genevieve, MO. Right along the Mississippi, about two counties south of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now