MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: lol. Still a lot of runs left. Congrats Minneapolis? Seems unlikely to me that we trend south over the next 4 days but we shall see. Most of us have been on the southern edge for a while now and that rarely turns out favorably 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 SW shift on the 00z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The CMC wasn’t terrible. It actually shifted SW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I was gonna say... I'd be happy with the Canadian. Gotta remember with the extreme cold the ratios will be greater than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 What’s odd is to my unprofessional eye, the gfs diggs south and west a touch more and yet the precip shifted considerably north. Want to see the ensembles and see if this winds up being an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Snow totals appear to have ticked up on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Riding the line here in Tulsa. I’ll be thrilled with 2” plus. Feels like the system will overperform given all the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: What’s odd is to my unprofessional eye, the gfs diggs south and west a touch more and yet the precip shifted considerably north. Want to see the ensembles and see if this winds up being an outlier. The low tracks way north. A low going from Nevada, mo to southern Illinois isn’t gonna produce much for most of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Heh yeah it almost seems like the 00z GFS Ensembles heard my earlier comment about the HWY 412 cut-off line. Definitely shifted north on a lot of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 00z Euro ended up farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The trend has not been kind to most of us in the last 12-18 hours. Models shifting away from a more amplified/west solution to one where the energy wraps up east of our domain, with a handoff at the east coast. Bottom line continues to be, as it always has been, the major cold coming. Very low wind chills of -10 to -30 possible for everyone by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Slight southern shift on the 06Z Euro run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Yeah, it would seem models are starting to align in this scenario. Here in ICT, my guess is we're looking an advisory criteria event with the main story being the wind and cold. That said, even a few inches of snow with the wind and temps will make travel very difficult for a time. I'm still holding out a bit of hope this digs and amplifies a bit sooner to pull this back southwest a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, RocketWX said: Yeah, it would seem models are starting to align in this scenario. Here in ICT, my guess is we're looking an advisory criteria event with the main story being the wind and cold. That said, even a few inches of snow with the wind and temps will make travel very difficult for a time. I'm still holding out a bit of hope this digs and amplifies a bit sooner to pull this back southwest a bit. Yeah that feels like the safe bet here, but it wouldn't shock me to see a blizzard warning either...given we'll have >50 mph winds as the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Yeah that feels like the safe bet here, but it wouldn't shock me to see a blizzard warning either...given we'll have >50 mph winds as the snow is falling. Yeah, that front is no joke. This is going to be wild to watch in real time as it plows south down the plains. There are going to be quite a few inflatable Christmas decorations lost in this wind if folks don't prepare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldRIC Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Current temps in Yukon, Canada, just a preview of the type of cold headed our way. I can’t even fathom temperatures this low (average for this area is -5 for highs and -20 for lows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Mayo belongs in the fridge, not the freezer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I've been loosely tracking the GFS Kuchera totals for my backyard. It just went from 17-20" in the prior runs to 5" on the 12Z. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with 5" of snow, but the trend this morning seems to be a quicker and less amped system for this area. Still plenty of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 ....and this is why I don't get the Charlie Brown optimism. That being said... this is still going to be brutal and memorable system. We may not get a bazillion inches of snow, but this type of cold, snow, and wind is pretty rare this far south. The blizzard word does look feasible still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Any idea when the system will begin being sampled? I just wonder if that will make a difference in the track of the low on future model runs? I've seen a couple mets mention artic highs tends to force a more southerly track, but the models want to take it on a more OK, into southern MO. Idk, wishful thinking maybe on my part. Holding out hope *fingers crossed* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I expected as much. GFS Ensembles are still pulling away on the snow chances and keeping it back up north. Bye Bye White Christmas if this holds. Better hope the Euro/Canadian and short range models don't follow in the next day or so. Instead of HWY 412 being the cut-off line this may be a HWY 60 event, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Here's the 10:1 snowfall output from the 12Z EC. These were higher than I thought it would be. I suppose we can expect ratios greater than 10:1--but I've lived my whole life in the south where 8:1 ratios are the going rate. I've never seen soundings like the one's I'm looking at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I'm not asking for 10 inches here in North Tulsa, I'd be happy with 3-4(heck 2 at the rate it's going). Just need a 30 mile shift south. I don't feel like that's egregious to ask for at this stage of the game, still possible... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'm not asking for 10 inches here in North Tulsa, I'd be happy with 3-4(heck 2 at the rate it's going). Just need a 30 mile shift south. I don't feel like that's egregious to ask for at this stage of the game, still possible... I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MUWX said: I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. Normally I don't since people tend to use Kuchera as hopium or for shock value, but I feel like these temps truly warrant it. I feel like it would be more accurate than using a base 10:1, even if it's still blown out of proportion a bit. Speaking of, here is the latest NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Chicago makes a good point though about those ratios.. Expecting snow to liquid ratios to average around 15:1, possibly 20:1 western CWA where DGZ will be deeper. The one factor that *should* keep the snow:liquid ratios somewhat in check is the very strong winds which would tend to rip about the larger/fluffier dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I will be very curious to see what kind of ratios we will see if we do get temps in the single digits for highs as some of the data indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 SGF went with a watch for their northernmost counties but only mention 2-4 inches for them. Seems pretty reasonable to me. I think most of us struggle to get to 2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 According to the afternoon AFD, the Topeka office is forecasting 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The latest GFS brings us a little more hope. As does the Hi res Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now