stormdragonwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Oh and the Ensembles continue to trend up with more members getting snowier. From the 12z GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Better agreement with the 12z GFS/Canadian as well. Snowfall amounts still not set in stone though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Another strong showing from the 18Z GFS. Blizzard criteria. Don’t get me started on the kuchera amounts haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Another strong showing from the 18Z GFS. I hate this feeling that we could be headed for a let down. But, we're at weather's craps table....so let it ride. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I hate this feeling that we could be headed for a let down. But, we're at weather's craps table....so let it ride. Until the Euro hops on, I remain uneasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hard not to get excited after seeing that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Until the Euro hops on, I remain uneasy. There was a trend toward the GFS in the 12z run. We'll see what 00z looks like. And, the Euro ENS mean does show more moisture in the area vs. the operational run for Thursday. EDIT: Multiple Euro ENS members do have big hits for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Until the Euro hops on, I remain uneasy. This 100%, while they can still be faulty, I am paying more close attention to Ensembles for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GEFS thru 12z Friday. Some huge hits here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hugging panel 26 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldRIC Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, The Ole Bucket said: Hugging panel 26 I’m liking #20. I’ll be in OKC for the holidays, and it seems like they are right at the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Yes. The operational model run of the EURO is actually one of the drier (less snowier) solutions of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z GFS is bonkers with total snow by next Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 More 00z GFS ensemble members hopping onboard with some kind of snow with the system next week but there's still room for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldRIC Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: 0z GFS is bonkers with total snow by next Friday. Yep, puts central OK in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: 0z GFS is bonkers with total snow by next Friday. I’m not gonna lie…I saw this before the model and was expecting a lot more than 4-6” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: I’m not gonna lie…I saw this before the model and was expecting a lot more than 4-6” lol Kuchera ends up being a couple more inches because some of the snow falls in the teens and single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 00z GFS Ens snowfall (10:1 ratio) thru 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, JoMo said: More 00z GFS ensemble members hopping onboard with some kind of snow with the system next week but there's still room for failure. Support from the Canadian model for this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Euro starting to trend snowier. Less about the amounts and more about location. 12Z and 00Z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 06z GFS is much better. HA! I have been Charlie Browned too many times... I will wait until the snow is on radar before I get too excited. EURO operational did trend snowier overnight... although it is about in the middle of the ensembles now instead of being the dry outlier. Wind chills on Thursday are going to be crazy either way... dangerous time for this event with Christmas just a few days later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It’ll be interesting to watch. After last night’s run of the GFS going even further south and west, this morning’s has jogged NE. Have to wonder if it continues going NE more toward a Euro or Canadian solution, or if it stays out and the others move it’s way. The icon, which was one of the first to sniff out this change, has been trending back to the NE and leaving us high and dry. So I think today’s runs are going ti be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 10 hours ago, MUWX said: I’m not gonna lie…I saw this before the model and was expecting a lot more than 4-6” lol My apologies on that. I didn't change the run and was looking at the 12z map. Nothing to be bonkers about on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12z GFS looks great! As JoMo said last night, the Kuchera looks solid and can’t be ruled out due to such cold temps. Now we need the Euro to continue to trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Posting the kuchera amounts for maximum weenie hype. Big takeaway is that after yesterday night’s shift to the SW, it’s looking like it was an outlier run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Based off the upper air vorticity so far, looking like the Canadian is going to fall more in like with the GFS after last night’s abysmal run. We’ll see, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 A definite shift in the right direction. Last night Today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: I have been Charlie Browned too many times... I will wait until the snow is on radar before I get too excited. I feel ya on that. Expecting it to all be gone by Tuesdays runs when the hi-res NAM and HRRR get hold of it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: 06z GFS is much better. HA! I have been Charlie Browned too many times... I will wait until the snow is on radar before I get too excited. EURO operational did trend snowier overnight... although it is about in the middle of the ensembles now instead of being the dry outlier. Wind chills on Thursday are going to be crazy either way... dangerous time for this event with Christmas just a few days later. I’ll never forget a couple years back when we were under a winter storm warning and it still completely busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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