stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Yeah in the next few days the Euro should start to come into a better range to give us a better idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Okay you guys be reasonable and realistic and more or less ignore the precip on the models. Meanwhile I'm going to lock up this 12z GFS run that gives me 3-4" of snow IMBY on Dec. 23 and single-digit lows on Christmas Eve as absolute Gospel. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Euro sniffing out the same storm as the GFS on the 22nd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said: Okay you guys be reasonable and realistic and more or less ignore the precip on the models. Meanwhile I'm going to lock up this 12z GFS run that gives me 3-4" of snow IMBY on Dec. 23 and single-digit lows on Christmas Eve as absolute Gospel. I really liked the one that gave me 14" on the 24th a few posts back. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's so precarious. One small change in the flow/timing and we go from rain on the 19th on the 12z GFS to a snowstorm on the 19th on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 A nice swath appearing on the 18z GFS right over 412 and 40 at 180 hrs out. Euro is possibly showing something at the tail end of its run again too. EDIT: Canadian has it too but its showing MO/KS getting it instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 What a fun 00z GFS run tonight. Still has the snow on the 19th and then has a massive system on the 22nd/23rd and then maybe another system after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 00z Euro with rain on the 19th and then waves of snow on the 21st-22nd with entrenched Arctic air and a SW flow aloft with the main system still coming together in the SW US at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hopefully the cold air remains deep enough thru the duration. SW flow aloft could also indicate Ice Storms. I vividly remember the one I experienced for Christmas in '00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I know I was hating on the GFS mere days ago but I will definitely take what the 06z is serving up at 228 hours. This would be a win for the entire forum. The cold air it brings in behind this would mean a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said: I know I was hating on the GFS mere days ago but I will definitely take what the 06z is serving up at 228 hours. This would be a win for the entire forum. The cold air it brings in behind this would mean a white Christmas. Indeed both the GFS and Euro last night on the 0Z runs were on board with a snowy scenario. EDIT: Just saw the 06z run on the GFS, nearly two feet for parts of OK/KS. Yeah right. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lock this total snow depth up and throw away the key for 9AM CT on Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 56 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Lock this total snow depth up and throw away the key for 9AM CT on Christmas morning. I second this. Really liking that all the major models have snow in them, not necesarily at the same times and amounts, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Could you imagine this 6AM Christmas morning? Of course, that requires getting 2 feet of snow, but I digress. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Could you imagine this 6AM Christmas morning? Of course, that requires getting 2 feet of snow, but I digress. Reminds me of February 2021. We even hit -19 during that which matches what the GFS shows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, StormChazer said: Could you imagine this 6AM Christmas morning? Of course, that requires getting 2 feet of snow, but I digress. That's close to Feb 2011 cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Well that GFS run was MUCH less fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Storm is at least still there. Wild divergences this far out are to be expected. "Glad to be in the game" as they say in the Mid-Atlantic sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Well that GFS run was MUCH less fun. And the Canadian was no fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The Euro is something…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Pass on the 12z runs. On to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 57 minutes ago, MUWX said: The Euro is something…. I have concerns it ends up farther NE than what the OP Euro shows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Trend is still not great on the 00z GFS/GEM for snow before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Hey Everybody! Glad to be model watching and snow dreaming with you all again!! Just glanced at a few of the 00z runs...eek! I'm not a fan of blistering cold with no snow! Lol! So, here's hoping we get a 2011 type of storm this year! Hate to see all the cold air wasted though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS hanging onto this small snow "storm" on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Winter time is back. Hey all. Good to be following along again. Still looks like a significant cold snap is on its way next week. The waves that rotate through will work themselves out in the meantime. Don't get hung up too much on run-to-run snowfall numbers. Looks like the first wave arrives Monday. Will be glad when NAM gets in range as it handles arctic air better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Accuweather with its usual very precise forecasting here. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS is still pretty robust with that system on 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Pretty good discussion here: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212360826617856?s=20&t=mOWWzMh CONUS Euro Ensemble Probs: https://twitter.com/weatherdan/status/1603212396356591617/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I was texting with Dan Skoff about this exact thing yesterday. He thinks the deterministic runs struggle that far out with the details. Does anyone still have access to the ensembles? The system on the 23rd looks interesting. 12z GFS was more robust with the wave and explodes it just east of us in to the SE. Should be a fun ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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