Doramo Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Got an inch here with big flakes but with melting it is hard to accumulate . Right at 32 here now so maybe it won't be gone by daylight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 1 hour ago, RocketWX said: Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week. Models have had a signal for some type of storm system around Thanksgiving. 12z GFS/GEM going with a cutoff of sorts developing...somewhere. 00z Euro was more progressive with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 12z GFS really brings back the cold right after thanksgiving. Of course it is the GFS at the end of its run so it may not be entirely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Here are the local storm reports for the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Was unlucky last night here in the Owasso/Collinsville area. Broken Arrow picked up close to half an inch, but nothing but rain here in Owasso. Odd to think I'd need to drive south to encounter the snow, not north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Still watching for some flurries tomorrow with the next cold front (mostly KS/MO). Probably going to warm back up after this weekend though. Still watching a storm system around Thanksgiving but the models have been all over the place with that and subsequently the long range is in question as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 A little light snow starting to fall here. Radar looking decent out of northeast Oklahoma. Wonder how much is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 I can confirm it is over here in NW Arkansas. Been doing it for at least an hour. Starting to stick in places. This might overperform too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Man, that Thanksgiving storm has been all over the place. Such large run to run changes with the models over the past week. They finally decided on the cutoff solution. It's going to get real interesting as we get into early Dec as there's a lot of Arctic air at the surface sitting to our north, if it comes farther south than forecast than we could be in for some icy conditions with a SW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2022 Author Share Posted November 25, 2022 Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. 00z GFS doing the sharp cold front/ice storm thing next weekend but it looks like it's on it's own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Decent snow falling right now. Pretty impressive temp drop since mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 Doug Heady's winter forecast from last night. https://youtu.be/9GMRco39udI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th. Models are going to be interesting as the try to digest the strength/position of that block. With that being said, they are likely to be all over the place each run. Hopefully we'll get at least one storm tracking to our south giving us snow during the next couple of weeks. Tonight's 00z GFS run dumped 30" in Kansas and NW OK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I'll take the last 60 hours of the 12Z GFS please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'll take the last 60 hours of the 12Z GFS please. yeah, the -EPO this run is crazy. The ensembles have supported a look like that. Looks interesting for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, JoMo said: yeah, the -EPO this run is crazy. The ensembles have supported a look like that. Looks interesting for sure. Obviously we can only take away some broad generalizations this far out, but colder and possibly a favorable pattern for storms around the last couple weeks in December is the best you can ask for at this stage of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Well, I don’t think we will be in 70s again for Christmas this year ***knocks on multiple wood surfaces***, so I will count that as a win. Maybe we can get some action in a couple weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning. You mean 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Either way its still been over a decade. lol Though '09 was right before Christmas (like this could have the potential of being) if things set up just right. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/24dec2009_blizzard It was memorable for me as I had to race east after getting off work to stay ahead of it on 412 as I was living in Tulsa at the time and was heading back home to visit family in AR for the holidays that year. That was... interesting. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 Still looking good moving forward. Ensembles are a beaut. Knock on wood that nothing changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 CPC has pretty much all of us outlined in the slight risk for heavy snow in the 10 days prior to Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS seems to be lost with the pattern over the next few weeks. Big swings run to run. Have seen on some of the other forums that the update may have thrown it off even more than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 00z GFS run has stupid cold on Christmas!!!! Brrrrr. That would be festive for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I am still liking the current trends. There has been run to run consistency despite it being 200+ hours out that someone around here may get some snow Christmas week. Ensembles seem to hint at it too. The cold air WILL be in place. EDIT: Obviously, it was a total fantasy land forecast from the other day but I'd love to see this come true. Lock it in. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The 00z Euro has some nice cold air getting in place over the next week and that cold air coming out of Canada toward the end of the run is great to see. Even better that this is happening close to Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 hours ago, NWAflizzard said: GFS seems to be lost with the pattern over the next few weeks. Big swings run to run. Have seen on some of the other forums that the update may have thrown it off even more than usual. They are all having big run to run changes due to the pattern change. Ensembles still have that -EPO pattern going forward and that's going to bring the cold. Individual storms will show up as we get closer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I feel like I shouldn't even bother looking at the models until we are 4 days out right now, they just are all over the place with no consistency. Hopefully we can start getting some run to run consistency and multiple models agreeing on the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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