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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week.  

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1 hour ago, RocketWX said:

Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week.  

Models have had a signal for some type of storm system around Thanksgiving. 12z GFS/GEM going with a cutoff of sorts developing...somewhere. 00z Euro was more progressive with it. 

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Still watching for some flurries tomorrow with the next cold front (mostly KS/MO). Probably going to warm back up after this weekend though. Still watching a storm system around Thanksgiving but the models have been all over the place with that and subsequently the long range is in question as well. 

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Man, that Thanksgiving storm has been all over the place. Such large run to run changes with the models over the past week. They finally decided on the cutoff solution. It's going to get real interesting as we get into early Dec as there's a lot of Arctic air at the surface sitting to our north, if it comes farther south than forecast than we could be in for some icy conditions with a SW flow aloft. 

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1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said:

Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th.

Models are going to be interesting as the try to digest the strength/position of that block. With that being said, they are likely to be all over the place each run. Hopefully we'll get at least one storm tracking to our south giving us snow during the next couple of weeks. Tonight's 00z GFS run dumped 30" in Kansas and NW OK. 

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17 minutes ago, JoMo said:

yeah, the -EPO this run is crazy. The ensembles have supported a look like that. Looks interesting for sure. 

Obviously we can only take away some broad generalizations this far out, but colder and possibly a favorable pattern for storms around the last couple weeks in December is the best you can ask for at this stage of the game.

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Either way its still been over a decade. lol Though '09 was right before Christmas (like this could have the potential of being) if things set up just right. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/24dec2009_blizzard
It was memorable for me as I had to race east after getting off work to stay ahead of it on 412 as I was living in Tulsa at the time and was heading back home to visit family in AR for the holidays that year. That was... interesting. lol

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I am still liking the current trends. There has been run to run consistency despite it being 200+ hours out that someone around here may get some snow Christmas week. Ensembles seem to hint at it too. The cold air WILL be in place.

FjkiCDoWIAEERSb.jpg

 

EDIT: Obviously, it was a total fantasy land forecast from the other day but I'd love to see this come true. Lock it in. lmao

sn10_acc.us_sc.png

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22 hours ago, NWAflizzard said:

GFS seems to be lost with the pattern over the next few weeks.  Big swings run to run.  Have seen on some of the other forums that the update may have thrown it off even more than usual.

They are all having big run to run changes due to the pattern change. Ensembles still have that -EPO pattern going forward and that's going to bring the cold. Individual storms will show up as we get closer. 

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