JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point... Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know... Yeah there's a nice -EPO that sets up in a few days, should bring the Arctic back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Am I allowed to ignore it because I don't like it? Always. Only hug the models you want to be correct. First rule of model watching. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Always. Only hug the models you want to be correct. First rule of model watching. Then I’ll take this one please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 43 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Then I’ll take this one please!!! Yeah, I'm hugging the 03z RAP currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Small shift south on the 06z HRRR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Upgrade to WSW for Joplin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, JMT417 said: Upgrade to WSW for Joplin 4-6" with up to 8". 06z NAM models still held farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Springfield: Quote During the overnight hours, a second heavy band of snow will develop behind the surface low. This band is forecast to track along and just south of I-44 as well, producing at least 1 inch per hour snowfall rates between roughly 1am and 4am. A peek at forecast soundings highlights some weak instability aloft, generally across northern Arkansas however it does bleed into far southern Missouri, therefore some rumbles of thunder may occur, further enhancing snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Fun times ahead. Figured its time to break out the HREF data. Its been awhile. Also worth noting, the 8"+ parameter probs are lit up too. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_prob_series§or=sp&postage_stamp=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Both metros in OK now under the Winter Storm Warning. Soon we can start tracking the rain/snow line to see how models have been handling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 May be of significance or it may not, but we got down to 24.4 last night. Forecast low was 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 NWS SGF disco was excellent this morning, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Latest GFS backing off quite a bit from prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I'm starting to get the feeling this may end up being just a generic 2-4" storm. But I'm a pessimist so ignore me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'm starting to get the feeling this may end up being just a generic 2-4" storm. But I'm a pessimist so ignore me. I'm in the same boat as you, I'm worried about the temps. I guess we will see huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: I'm in the same boat as you, I'm worried about the temps. I guess we will see huh Yes, let it prove me wrong lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I found one model that still looks bullish this morning. Go RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I found one model that still looks bullish this morning. Go RAP! Most of the models still seem bullish to me. Especially for northwest Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 16Z HRRR is 2-3 degrees too warm at 11:00. That's not insignificant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Currently a very pretty snow just on the southeast side of Wichita. 34deg on the weather station though, so what's falling is melting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: The 16Z HRRR is 2-3 degrees too warm at 11:00. That's not insignificant Meaning the current actual temp is 2-3 colder than what the HRRR shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Currently a very pretty snow just on the southeast side of Wichita. 34deg on the weather station though, so what's falling is melting. There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Meaning the current actual temp is 2-3 colder than what the HRRR shows? Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid. You're right that band looks pretty healthy. Should also see some dynamic cooling with the heavier snow as well. Seeing signs of that already, temp down to 33.6 from 34.0 here. Flakes are increasing in size and getting heavier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11. I don't think we're going to warm as much as what was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I don't think we're going to warm as much as what was forecasted. One of our friends in n Springdale said it was snowing up there, you still in cave springs man? Cloudy here in west Fayetteville, backyard weather station saying 37 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Got a report from my family on the Hughes/Seminole county line OK that they are now getting all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I don't think we're going to warm as much as what was forecasted. Yeah, its looking that way but still a long way to go, and it could mean that we just never really cool off this evening. With that said, the HRRR is still 3-4 degrees too warm at soon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: One of our friends in n Springdale said it was snowing up there, you still in cave springs man? Cloudy here in west Fayetteville, backyard weather station saying 37 degrees I'm working in Springdale but nothing here where I am. I live in Bella Vista. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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