Wx 24/7 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Speaking of the Chiefs game. Whew, that was close at the end. That was more nerve wracking than model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z NAM gonna nudge back north by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z NAM gonna nudge back north by a bit. Jomo, I know this is off topic compared to what's going on currently, but do we want the euro depiction of the mjo moving forward instead of the gefs, which has the mjo into phase 4? I believe 4-6 are warm phases for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Jomo, I know this is off topic compared to what's going on currently, but do we want the euro depiction of the mjo moving forward instead of the gefs, which has the mjo into phase 4? I believe 4-6 are warm phases for sure I haven't really been following the long range lately as it hasn't seemed to make a difference and will change. With that being said the 18z GEFS looked decent in the long run and had a nice -EPO coming up which dumped cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Indeed the NAM has nudged north a bit with more widespread heavy totals and seems to be following what the GFS and Euro have been showing. I am still skeptical of what the actual temps will be on the day of so the 10:1 ratio might be exaggerated but I also think the "Snow Depth" parameter that some are swearing by is underdone. Best to take the two and work towards the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 If we can get another nudge to the north, SWMO might be a really solid spot since most of the snow will fall at night. Even with marginal temps, I think the snow could pile up with no sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Slight NW shift on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, JoMo said: Slight NW shift on the 00z GFS. Maybe the SE trend has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Has anyone seen any posts from NW Whiteout on here lately? He's usually all over these winter conversations. Hope he's ok. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 52 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: 00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run. It's on shore. The temp profiles are messing with the snowfall output since temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 This is probably my inexperience showing through, as obviously the NWS meteorologists and even news meteorologists know more than me. But it seems like most of them are calling for just 1-2 inches of snow. I know there will be initial melting from ground temps, onset rain that will cut down potential totals and the fact that it’ll be above 32, so additional melting. But 1-2(or in NWS Tulsa’s case less than an inch of snow) just seems too low to me. I’m not saying that 6 inches should be plastered everywhere but widespread 3-4 doesn’t seem crazy to me. But again, I’m both an amateur and a biased snow lover, so I don’t have the best take on these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 12 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Has anyone seen any posts from NW Whiteout on here lately? He's usually all over these winter conversations. Hope he's ok. Hey man I'm good, lots of family things going on so really busy this year. Hope you and the rest of the forum are all well!! Thnx for thinking of me my friend that means a lot. Been mainly just browsing and reading when time permits. Hopefully this boring winter turns around in Feb. soon. Xmas was awesome though with the lil bit of snow and cold so I'm thankful for that. Take care buddy, ty again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12Z GFS from WeatherBell with this porn eye candy snow forecast. Am seriously doubting this as realistic of course, but I do the the storm track for NW AR. Question whether the 10:1 ratio is possible, although time of day does help some. The temps are certainly marginal as depicted by the 7pm Tuesday GFS temp. The Euro is a bit warmer, although I am not sure how well models do with dynamic cooling in the heavier snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Hey man I'm good, lots of family things going on so really busy this year. Hope you and the rest of the forum are all well!! Thnx for thinking of me my friend that means a lot. Been mainly just browsing and reading when time permits. Hopefully this boring winter turns around in Feb. soon. Xmas was awesome though with the lil bit of snow and cold so I'm thankful for that. Take care buddy, ty again Hey man good to hear from you. Glad to see you're doing well. I was wondering as I know you, Jomo, and 24/7 have been on here a few years with me. Are you still in Fayetteville? What are you thinking about this mid-week storm? I think we might be good for 2-4 inches around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 44 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Hey man good to hear from you. Glad to see you're doing well. I was wondering as I know you, Jomo, and 24/7 have been on here a few years with me. Are you still in Fayetteville? What are you thinking about this mid-week storm? I think we might be good for 2-4 inches around here. Yes, still in Fayetteville. Im concerned with temps with that storm, prbly be a heavy sloppy wet snow unless we can get colder or wet bulb in some heavier bands etc. I'm craving snow though that's for sure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 WSW for South Central MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, JMT417 said: WSW for South Central MO NW AR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Crazy to see the NAM is now being more bullish than the GFS. (Posting Kuchera because I personally feel the 10:1 totals are too unrealistic approaching 2 feet in spots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z NAM 3K. Still snowing throughout much of the area at the end of 60hrs. 10.1 ratio is definitely too high, but probably more like 6.1 or 7.1 isn't too crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 NWS STL slaps a WSW in my backyard. You love to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z NAM shifted a bit back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z NAM shifted a bit back north. This thing will come more north. Still a ways out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z NAM shifted a bit back north. Maybe a touch colder than 12z, definitely colder than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Oz GFS definitely pulled north. (to my untrained eye) I've got family in Morris, about 35 miles south-east of Tulsa...they look to be near the bullseye. I live at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa, about a mile south of I-44. I would thrilled with 3 inches, but if we can squeak out 6?? Man, that would be amazing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here. For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 @ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, MUWX said: For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly Heh ironically my station down here did the opposite on the 10pm news. Too funny how they flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Tulsa finally jumping on board with the higher amounts in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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