The Ole Bucket Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: @ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system. It really has been remarkable. Absolutely rock solid for DAYS with only minor shifts. Memphis Low track was snuffed out late last week and hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Tulsa finally jumping on board with the higher amounts in most places. Hope that's not the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight. It’s too much to post all of it here. But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm. This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate). FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology, there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean 850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient, especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy, wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12: 1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems. Forecast trends over the last 24 hours: 1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along and south of I-44. Here are the latest NBM snow probs: >2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area. >4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 They were very thorough, as usual. I rely on them more than Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Slight northern jog on GFS, NAM and Icon, might be enough to push Tulsa county into a Winter Storm Watch. Canadian and the long range 12Z HRRR keeping that heaviest snow to the south. Euro still playing catch up with the others so I'm not considering it as heavily as the others right now(has been an outlier almost this entire time so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 north trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro had a massive northern shift with some totals. 06Z Run Latest 12Z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The HRRR and RAP continue to be a bit further SE from the SREF, NAM, and most others. This definitely feels like a thread-the-needle event as far as temps go. Everything else sets us perfectly. Dynamic cooing, wet bulb temp, precip rate, and time of day will make a lot of difference in any given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 hours ago, The Waterboy said: NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight. It’s too much to post all of it here. But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm. This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate). FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology, there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean 850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient, especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy, wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12: 1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems. Forecast trends over the last 24 hours: 1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along and south of I-44. Here are the latest NBM snow probs: >2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area. >4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. "CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems."I remember the Christmas 2002 snowstorm. I was in SW Missouri at the time. That was fun. Had 26 inches on the ground for Christmas day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Winter storm warning issued for North west Arkansas and Tulsa was added to the winter storm watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Winter Storm Warning just issued. Extends all the way out into New Mexico. Edit: Ninja'd by NWAflizzard lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Haha. My bad stormdragonwx. Also thought that this chart was interesting. Not often you see a greater than 50 percent probability for greater than 8 inches of snow for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z NAM shifted NW a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z NAM shifted NW a tad. Indeed it did, the 700 MB low tracks a bit farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Joplin getting a Winter Weather Advisory Springfield and Branson a Winter Storm Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, JMT417 said: Joplin getting a Winter Weather Advisory Springfield and Branson a Winter Storm Warning Advisory for 2-4" up to 6" here.... and 5-10" up to 12" for the Winter Storm Warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. Though, the NAM may be onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. Though, the NAM may be onto something... Been patiently waiting for the northwest shift that seems to always happen with these stronger systems. Models have held steady the past few days, but as mentioned, there may be signs of a last second shift here. It won't be much of a shift, and south and east of here will certainly be the jackpot but South Central KS may sneak out a surprise over achiever. We'll see if the trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 TSA went all out for NE Arkansas, still going conservative on Tulsa area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation. NAM is still amped tonight. Would love to see temps start to model colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: NAM is still amped tonight. Would love to see temps start to model colder. That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point... Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder. If it were to actually verify colder, these 10-1 totals could verify in places and we'd see some of these double digit totals per the NAM, HRRR, and GFS. Would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point... Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know... Yes, I agree the more N and E you go are in a much better spot. I'm anticipating some good snow, but maybe not anything really big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I am throwing the RGEM out. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I am throwing the RGEM out. Who's with me? Yah it's garbage, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 00z GFS moved a bit back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS moved a bit back south. Am I allowed to ignore it because I don't like it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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