ouamber Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 ^^GFS says Oklahoma is closed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I have a hard time buying a foot plus to the I-44 corridor with marginal temps like the GFS is trying to sell. It's trying to do produce 3 inches of snow here in SC KS tomorrow with temps of 34-37 degrees. That said, dynamic cooling is an equalizer. Snow depth maps would show 7" in the foot plus snow accumulation zones... so your comment is very valid. Snow output versus accumulation and depth are not the same in marginal situations like this may be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Looks like the 12z GFS Ensembles were solid as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Here's the GFS to drool over. The lift this run generates is off the charts. haha The good ol' GFS teasing us with crazy totals days before the event as usual. Now if the Euro does this later on as well, its all hands on deck. EDIT: UKMET is not as crazy but shows a very similar swath. Waiting to see what the Euro and Canadian show here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The Canadian model holds serve from its past several runs (this is combined for both tomorrow's and the Tue/Wed storm). Now we wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Looks like thru hour 72 of the Euro, it's stronger with the 500 mb low in northern Arizona than it was on 00z run. There's a 537 dm circle centered near the AZ/NM line. So far, the trend overall with this run has been for a stronger, slightly farther north, system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 days out with tight model agreement yielding high snow totals is about best case scenario at this stage of the game. If these stay in agreement for the next 24-36 hours, then at that point I think we can safely say we have a big one on our hands. But I think at this point it's not a stretch to assume that we WILL get snow, just how much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Well I suppose I'll finally chime in after model watching the past couple weeks, watching systems either fall apart once inside the 180hr range or track north of me. Today seems to be first day that all models are starting to align on how this system is going to eject into the plains. Should be fun to monitor over the weekend. At this time, everything seems on the table here in ICT, from a complete miss to the south to one of the better snows we've had in a while. I do like that the track is south at this time, as these tend to trend north when it is a strong system like currently modeled. It wouldn't take much of a shift to get in on some of the higher qpf currently over Oklahoma. Here's to hoping we all cash in some how. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Well I suppose I'll finally chime in after model watching the past couple weeks, watching systems either fall apart once inside the 180hr range or track north of me. Today seems to be first day that all models are starting to align on how this system is going to eject into the plains. Should be fun to monitor over the weekend. At this time, everything seems on the table here in ICT, from a complete miss to the south to one of the better snows we've had in a while. I do like that the track is south at this time, as these tend to trend north when it is a strong system like currently modeled. It wouldn't take much of a shift to get in on some of the higher qpf currently over Oklahoma. Here's to hoping we all cash in some how. This 100%. Finally nice to see something around here other than tumbleweeds and duststorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Don't jinx it and it all falls apart by Sunday night. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Here is the Euro Ensemble mean. That's some great agreement right there amongst the 50 runs. Here's all 50 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Probability of snow exceeding 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Don't get me wrong, I would actually love to see a repeat of the Feb 2nd, 2011 event and there are some similarities starting to take shape here nearly 12 years to the day, but I feel we got a ways to go just yet before I can actually say it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18Z GFS sticking to it's 12Z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Pretty interesting stats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Southern trend continues on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, MUWX said: Pretty interesting stats Shows just how rare that elusive 12" snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Last two runs of the GFS have been what we are looking for. I would feel more confident with a colder antecedent airmass though. It’s real “stay on target” vibes here on out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 With temperature being one of the main concerns, the 12Z NAM has it plenty cold in the areas where it’s snowing. Didn’t love the southern shift of the track overnight, makes me miss out on a lot here in north Tulsa county. But the morning gfs run nudged back North a touch, so hoping for just a couple more nudges and the euro to go back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Wait!!!! Where is the 20"+ snow the models were promising me two days ago? Oh that's right... back to reality we go. I wonder how many model maps have been posted on social media the last few days. I will be more interested once the system is fully sampled. Either way, looks like a decent snow for most of us unless there is a huge shift north or a small shift south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Break out the sad trombone for the southern Kansas folk. It's too warm for snow the system today, and the storm for Tuesday/Wednesday looks to be too far south to do anything, unless there's a drastic shift north. Bummer. On the plus side, western Kansas (where the heart of the D4 drought is,) is getting some much needed snowfall. Onward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 18z NAM looks solid and still snowing at hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I’m ok with the NAM so far, but can’t focus too much that far out on it, it’ll change a lot until about hour 60. it’s all about the storm track and temps(duh). As the models project a further south track, you wind up with less snow totals across the board except for the small core of the low where someone gets hammered. The further north we go, the cooler the air and better chances of prolonged and widespread snow. Any delay of the system at this point also increases higher snow odds as it seems pretty likely that after 6PM Tuesday, temps get low enough and the 540 line pushes east. I still genuinely think someone is going to push getting a foot of snow where that deformation band sets up as the low passes through, but will that be Davis, OK? Out in the higher terrain of the Ozarks? Wichita Falls? Even a 20 mile track difference considerably changes the forecast due to the type of set up. I currently am thinking 4 inches for Tulsa, and that will still make me very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 We've shifted from an I-44 special to an E OK and AR Ozarks special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I give it another 24-36 hours to let the models settle. This is a classic case of the models shifting back & forth on the track as the system gets sampled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: I give it another 24-36 hours to let the models settle. This is a classic case of the models shifting back & forth on the track as the system gets sampled. Yah this is probably not done waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 As mentioned above the first NAM samplings in range of the storm going out to 84 hours is encouraging. I expect more than likely this will probably shift back north slightly in the next few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 This minor storm is centered around KC and the ongoing KC vs Jacksonville game, but not much to speak of at the stadium, and rain for you guys that are the main people in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Speaking of the Chiefs game. Whew, that was close at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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