JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, MUWX said: I’ll never forget a couple years back when we were under a winter storm warning and it still completely busted. I'll never forget that time that we were under a WSW and the system came out farther NW than predicted. Wichita looked at the satellite and immediately dropped all their warnings since all the models were wrong and it was tracking farther NW. Springfield stood their ground and were completely wrong as temps stayed too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, MUWX said: I’ll never forget a couple years back when we were under a winter storm warning and it still completely busted. I remember that too. And I think it was like the next model run right after they issued the wsw that showed all was not going to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Oh boy. I was just made aware of this. Not sure what else to say here. This is the same guy that sparked the "drive south" memes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 ^^^Good 'ol Mikey Morgan never disappoints! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Put this in the win column. The 12Z Euro continues the slight nudges toward the GFS. 00Z Euro run 12Z Euro run. Higher amounts(yes I’m using kuchera) and slightly more SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldRIC Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, StormChazer said: GFS members. I’m liking Member 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The EURO ensembles seem less impressive to me today. I am still less than assured that this is a strong setup. Some snow for Christmas would be great. The cold is still looking nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 When the NAM, Short Range Canadian (RDPS), and HRRR don't hop on in the next couple days, that's when I will get concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Here is the euro ensemble mean. Last night vs this afternoon. So on average more snow and further south a smidge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 57 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: The EURO ensembles seem less impressive to me today. I am still less than assured that this is a strong setup. Some snow for Christmas would be great. The cold is still looking nuts. Yeah, the cold is a sure thing. The amount of snow and how far south it gets is more uncertain. The one thing that has been happening is the Euro has been caving to the GFS more and more this year. Also stuff has been ending up farther west over time. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Hey guys. I recently relocated from North Carolina to the Northland of K.C. (MO). I'm looking forward to experiencing my first midwest winter storm (hopefully). Thanks for all the info here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, Poimen said: Hey guys. I recently relocated from North Carolina to the Northland of K.C. (MO). I'm looking forward to experiencing my first midwest winter storm (hopefully). Thanks for all the info here. Welcome to the forum!!! Hopefully this one will be a nice “Welcome to the Midwest” for you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I know we’re all going to laugh hysterically at what I’m about to say, but the 18z NAM at 84 looks juicy. Snow already breaking out across a lot of OK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I know we’re all going to laugh hysterically at what I’m about to say, but the 18z NAM at 84 looks juicy. Snow already breaking out across a lot of OK. Pretty much. But its still exciting to see haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I can tell you the short range 18Z Canadian is more west on the last hour than the long range 12Z is at that same time. Also the icon is jogging west as well on the 18Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS digging a bit more…. Looks a bit better synoptic-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Temp of 4 degrees, moderate snow and 30 MPH winds seems fun. 1004 MB surface low to 989 MB in 6 hours and still dropping rapidly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Man, that's one juicy GFS run. I'm lost trying to figure out what the moisture source for the system is. But, if it happens like this....widespread blizzard conditions for a lot of folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Man I’d love to see that low pressure track drop south a little more… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Please correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t the potency of the arctic air suggest that the low might dig farther south than the models show at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said: Man I’d love to see that low pressure track drop south a little more… Agreed, especially for you in LR. That type of track could doom some to the dreaded dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Man, that's one juicy GFS run. I'm lost trying to figure out what the moisture source for the system is. But, if it happens like this....widespread blizzard conditions for a lot of folks. It's dynamics plus the extent of the cold air. I just noticed the 50-55 kt 925 MB winds at hour 99 on the backside. Sheesh. (Although the GFS is usually too wet this far out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 IDK I have a feeling this is one of those setups where theres gonna be a sharp cut-off south of the 412 line while areas north will get absolutely dumped on. At least with what the data trends indicate. Impressive Ensemble agreement though. Someone here is getting dumped on soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 41 minutes ago, JoMo said: It's dynamics plus the extent of the cold air. I just noticed the 50-55 kt 925 MB winds at hour 99 on the backside. Sheesh. (Although the GFS is usually too wet this far out) That makes sense. There is some backing of the low level flow at 925 and 850 mb as well, which would aid in the increased precip, too. I agree with you that the GFS is too wet for this setup. If that signal shows up later....hide the women and children. By far, the winds and cold will be the greatest societal impact from this, but the snow cannot be ignored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 There has been a noticeable shift SW on the last 3 runs of the ICON for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Through hour 72 of GFS, energy is further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The cold air is going to move faster than any model is predicting. I would use caution in the GFS’ interpretation of the polar front. Looks about 8-12 hours too slow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 It was fun while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Well, that wasn’t what I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: It was fun while it lasted lol. Still a lot of runs left. Congrats Minneapolis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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