stormdragonwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 For simplicity and ease of access, you have this one here to play around with on the COD page. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Previous Run Comparison: https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/prun/?type=2022121506-GEFS-SGP-winter-snens-258 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ensembles will give you a broader picture when it comes to long range outlooks. They're best used to see a general pattern and to check if the deterministic (control) is an outlier. I remember a few years back we were looking at a snow event and following the ensembles and they all ended up being wrong. Had like a 90% chance we'd get snow drop to a 0% chance in like 2 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Half the subs on this forum are gonna go wild after watching the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12Z GFS snow totals for the curious Canadian paints a similar, but much less robust picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 4:40 PM, stormdragonwx said: For simplicity and ease of access, you have this one here to play around with on the COD page. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Previous Run Comparison: https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/prun/?type=2022121506-GEFS-SGP-winter-snens-258 Expand Stormdragonwx - When I click on the first link it takes me to what looks like the home page. Not sure where to go from there. Can you describe how to get to (or directly link) to the page to that displays the ensemble snow map. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'll post the Euro ensembles today after the noon run comes out. Here is the GFS members for this 1st upcoming storm system. Probability of 1 inch or more of snow, last nights run compared to today's noon run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Euro is finally starting to come around. Last night's run vs this afternoon's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 5:04 PM, Ozarkwx said: Stormdragonwx - When I click on the first link it takes me to what looks like the home page. Not sure where to go from there. Can you describe how to get to (or directly link) to the page to that displays the ensemble snow map. Thx. Expand On the website I linked I will note it's just the GFS Ensembles. It's the 2nd tab from the right labeled GEFS. Your options for which GEFS data to view are on the left then just run the slider on the bottom to view the forecast hours. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Well that run delivers a White Christmas for like 3/4 of this subforum... and measurable snow on Christmas Eve for central MS and AL. Now we just need to amp it up. My former comrades in the Mid-Atlantic sub are going wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 4:36 PM, The Ole Bucket said: Well that run delivers a White Christmas for like 3/4 of this subforum... and measurable snow on Christmas Eve for central MS and AL. Now we just need to amp it up. My former comrades in the Mid-Atlantic sub are going wild Expand Yeah. Nice GFS run compared to this morning. Canadian had a snowier solution too. Need to check the ensembles and see if they are looking more promising. Thanks stormdragon for that link. White Christmas would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 4:53 PM, NWAflizzard said: Yeah. Nice GFS run compared to this morning. Canadian had a snowier solution too. Need to check the ensembles and see if they are looking more promising. Thanks stormdragon for that link. White Christmas would be great. Expand CMC has rain changing over to snow. Low forms in central IL, sweeps up to Lake Superior, stalls and bombs out to 977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 11:50 PM, stormdragonwx said: On the website I linked I will note it's just the GFS Ensembles. It's the 2nd tab from the right labeled GEFS. Your options for which GEFS data to view are on the left then just run the slider on the bottom to view the forecast hours. Hope that helps. Expand Thanks, that is a great tool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 12z Euro gonna have a different look for the storm on the 22nd. Interesting. Hope the models reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 One word describes the Christmas holiday... BRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 6:34 PM, JoMo said: 12z Euro gonna have a different look for the storm on the 22nd. Interesting. Hope the models reel this one in. Expand Here is that storm isolated. FWIW, Tuttle started to pick up on this last night with the UKMET and Icon and now the Euro is beginning to shift west as well on this. If we keep going, this definitey has some high snow amount potential and would definitely equate to a white Christmas for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 These are my favorite types of storms, when they start to trend big under a week out. So often we sit in la la land with dream scenarios on the models and then at a week we get brough back to reality. So here's to hoping this westward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 While this storm is definitely not set in stone, you would have to use much higher than 10:1 ratios in much of that snow as the temps crash. Just throwing that out there, too, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 The south/western shift on the models with the 12/22 system continues with the 18z GFS. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 A boy can dream. Still, I'm liking the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Still a large amount of ensemble spread on the 18z GFS for the 12/22 system so don't be surprised if next run is drastically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Lol that 18z GFS is too good to be true. That would blow the '09 event out of the water if so. Though here is the Ensemble from the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z GFS looks like an unorganized hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 4:18 AM, The Waterboy said: 00z GFS looks like an unorganized hot mess. Expand But man look how many Ensembles dump on the 4 state area. Another thing to note too that hasn't really been covered is with the temps being as cold as some of these models are forecasting, the 10:1 ratio on the models might not be the best way to gauge how much snow will actually fall. If we are looking at teens and single digits, this may be a 20-25:1 ratio with overall amounts still depending on the timing/track of any system that comes thru with sufficient moisture to work with. The latter will be key to all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Lock it in: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Another dream run from the GFS after looking disorganized last night. This is just this storm totals isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 That’s one the crazier GFS runs I’ve ever seen. It doesn’t get us above 0 for 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 4:49 PM, MUWX said: That’s one the crazier GFS runs I’ve ever seen. It doesn’t get us above 0 for 36 hours. Expand Yeah...and at hour 120, there's a 1068 mb high in MT. Would be an all-time record for the lower 48. Oh, and it's a bit chilly under that high too...around -40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 With as much snow pack as these models are spitting out in some instances, it could tank the temps even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:08 PM, stormdragonwx said: With as much snow pack as these models are spitting out in some instances, it could tank the temps even more. Expand Yep, deeper snow pack could send temps even lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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