MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion

[JoMo]

New thread. Fantasy snow showing up on the models. 

[NWAflizzard]

Got to love the 12z GFS. Snows over the entire area Monday. Canadian picking up on it too. 

[StormChazer]

Yes please.

[JoMo]

4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yes please.

Complex situation with 3 different pieces of energy coming into play it looks like. Interesting to see though. Pre-Thanksgiving snow would be nice. 

[MoWeatherguy]

Not a big fan of November snows.  Seems like it kills the rest of our winter when it comes early. 

[stormdragonwx]

Lol I was about to post some models up too. Not often you see November snowfall with several inches around here, but it's looking like a real possibility with the three major long range models continuing to show signs. Will be curious to see if it holds come this weekend. 

[JoMo]

Eh, it's still almost a week away, temps look marginal. Gonna depend on what happens with 3 different pieces of energy and how they interact with each other. I'll take snow anytime we can get it, but especially before Christmas. 

[stormdragonwx]

Models still showing 2-3 snow chances over the next week but accum amounts are starting to look more realistic as it should be.

EDIT: Latest GFS and NAM are still kinda bullish but that's expected for them. Like this one from the 12Z GFS showing pockets of 2-4" happening over the next 24-36 hours across parts of northern AR. A lot of this if it were to fall will likely melt due to ground temps being warm. Though elevated grassy surfaces and trees that still have leaves may have it accumulate. Roads should be fine.

[JoMo]

Some snow showers possible tonight across mainly southern MO and N Arkansas and parts of E OK. Monday night another chance but temps might be kind of marginal. Then we'll see what happens after that. 

[Doramo]

NWS : Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited snow risk. DISCUSSION... A dusting to a half inch of snowfall will occur in grassy areas tonight along and south of a Winona to West Plains line. No impacts to roads are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Light snow is becoming increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday morning. Light accumulations are possible, however exact amounts remain highly uncertain.

[The Ole Bucket]

For tonight, a wave rotates through the base of the upper trough
across Texas and Oklahoma and toward the Mississippi River. This is
expected to spread some light precipitation eastward through the
overnight period. It`s looking increasingly likely that the far
southern part of our forecast area will get in on at least some
light precipitation associated with this overnight. The temperature
at all levels will be below freezing, with the forcing for this
precipitation being generated at 700 MB and above. Thus snow will be
the precipitation type expected. With a significant amount of dry
air beneath this forcing layer, we expect that overall amounts will
be held down somewhat with snow ratios not being very efficient.
That said, the likelihood of at least some snow has increased, and
at this stage we expect that a dusting of snow is likely across
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois with up to 1 inch
possible. Some snowflakes could fall as far north as St Louis,
although accumulations that far north are unlikely. This will exit
quickly to the east Saturday morning as the upper trough axis shifts
east.

Saturday will likely be the coldest day of this air mass as the
core of the cold air will be over our region. Highs will only make
it into the 30s with lows Saturday night falling off into the
teens to low 20s. Surface high pressure moving across the area
will lead to good radiational cooling conditions, so some
typically colder spots could be even colder.

[The Waterboy]

Decent sized flakes reported falling in Fayetteville with a dusting already on cars/elevated surfaces.   

[stormdragonwx]

Yes our first official snowfall (and accumulations) occurred tonight here in Fayetteville, AR. While I was skeptical of the models, they apparently nailed it.

[Doramo]

Snowed a little over one inch here.

[The Ole Bucket]

Definite overperformer. Flurries still going here after about 1.5 inches.

EDIT: I am bad at eyeballing in this new environment! Measured almost 3 on the sidewalk just now. Got a short burst of light-to-mod to greet the kiddos this AM.

Back to flurries now (6:15)

[The Ole Bucket]

NWS STL has a sense of humor.

Some folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.

[stormdragonwx]

NWS TSA is hopping on the bandwagon regarding the model consistency for snowfall, here is their forecast for early next week.

[JoMo]

8 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

NWS STL has a sense of humor.

Some folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.

I remember that happening a couple times as a kid. Waking up on a Spring morning with 4+" of heavy wet snow stuck to everything and not having to go to school, when the night before the only thing that was called for was a rain/snow mix. Of course there are other times I remember snow being called for and waking up to rain and 34 degrees before as well. 

[lookingnorth]

For the Monday event, the NAM has been consistent in showing snow over western Oklahoma, with less in the OKC and Tulsa metros. NWS Norman mentioned a lot of uncertainty in their morning forecast discussion.

Quote

An early season winter weather event still appears on track to
affect the area on Monday, but there are still a number of key
details to be worked out regarding where and how much snow will
fall. Models agree that a compact shortwave will move quickly
eastward into west Texas Monday morning, with ascent increasing
rapidly in our area as it does so. The shortwave will be weakening
over time as it phases with broader closed low to our north, with
forcing decreasing quickly near or after 21z Monday across much of
the area. Therefore, the vast majority of precipitation is expected
to fall during the daytime on Monday, with a fairly brief (3-6 hour)
window for snowfall at any one location.

There has been a southward shift in much of the model guidance over
the last 24 hours, along with a trend towards a weaker shortwave as
it crosses into Oklahoma. Most hi-res model guidance has converged
on a swath of heavier QPF from western/west-central OK southeastward
into southern OK, while the ECM/GFS and their respective ensembles
remain a bit further north and east centered more along the I-40
corridor.

With thermal profiles initially too warm for snow outside of
northwest Oklahoma and surface wet-bulb temperatures at or above
freezing, heavy precipitation rates will be needed to cool the
column sufficiently for accumulating snow. Therefore, the placement
of this band will likely be the key determining factor for who sees
several inches of heavy wet snow and who sees little more than a
light rain/snow mix with minimal accumulation. We have adjusted our
snowfall forecast southward from the previous forecast and increased
amounts within the band of heavier precipitation, though our
forecast is likely too broad with accumulating snow (especially
across north-central Oklahoma) and may be too conservative on
maximum amounts due to remaining uncertainty. As of now our highest
amounts (2-3") are across northwestern OK southeastward into central
OK, but it is possible further adjustments southward will be needed
if trends continue. Of note, many of the latest hi-res models
produce little to no snow accumulation for portions of central and
north-central Oklahoma, including parts of the OKC metro, as the
heavier precipitation fails to make it north and east during the
day Monday before forcing wanes. All in all, forecast confidence
remains low and users are advised to check back for further
updates.

 

[stormdragonwx]

Hmm so the latest models kinda pulled the rug out on this event. Looking pretty lackluster for E OK and W AR. TSA is also now saying less than an inch for most of the area too.

[Doramo]

Monday Night

 

Yeah, the " storm "  is duding out . Was too much to expect for middle of November . But we did get an bit over an inch of snow already the night before last and that is the first time I can remember since I move here in 1989 that accumulating snow came this early.  Usually snow doesn't happen here until the last week of November if then  . So all in all I'm happy for whatever we get . 

 

 

Snow, possibly mixed with rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[stormdragonwx]

Indeed. haha I am gonna laugh if Friday nights event (which overperformed) winds up being the better of the two.

EDIT: Of course the NAM is being the NAM and has been all over the place today. The GFS and Canadian seems a bit more grounded in consistency. Euro has trended dry all around since last week.

[JoMo]

Yeah the Mon night system was always kind of marginal, especially with temps. Surface low in the Gulf doesn't really help plus the system is weakening and there's a lack of low level forcing. It's just Mid-Nov though, which is the good thing. Not even the coldest time of the year yet. 

[The Ole Bucket]

NWS has splashed a few WWAs for this storm. I have my doubts about this storms performance.
 

Still, it’s 19F right now IMBY here in Ste Gen.

Real January weather before Thanksgiving. Can’t ask for much more than that.

[Doramo]

Latest NWS Springfield

 

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022------"

"Key Messages:--------

----"1. Light snow likely tonight with some light accumulation. Minor
road impacts are possible."

 

Confidence remains good that most locations will receive anywhere
from a trace to an inch of slushy snow. This is backed well by
the latest NBM and GEFS probabilities. The GEFS indicates about a
80-90% chance of measurable snow for the Ozarks with a swath of
30-40% probabilities for greater than one inch of snow that
extends along the Ozark Plateau and across the eastern Ozarks
noted by the HREF. Limited road impacted will be possible, which
is supported by the experimental WSSI output with the best
possibilities in the eastern Ozarks.

[StormChazer]

NAM has trended snowier the past few runs.

Gives NW AR a nice 3-4 inches. All depends on where those bands set up as the system moves overhead, hard to predict those.

[Doramo]

Wow ! We currently have wet snow coming down.  Now  I'm really curious as to how this night unfolds. 

[JoMo]

Pretty neat rain/snow mix tonight here. Made the rooftops white. Good night for some hot chocolate. 

[MoWeatherguy]

About an inch here in Bella Vista tonight.   Pretty sight. 

[The Waterboy]

Same here in Bentonville.  Maybe an inch.  Big flakes at times. Decent amount of melting along the way.  Definitely unexpected for mid-November.  Would have been probably 2-4” in mid-January.  Hopefully this is a great sign for the rest of winter.