WxWatcher007 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 12 hours ago, toolsheds said: Question about how Nicole formed. If it started as a subtropical storm, doesn't that change where the wind field is located within the storm? If it does, could that wind field shift as it strengthens and becomes a hurricane? Generally, yes. A subtropical storm almost always has a wind field that is lopsided, with the maximum winds as a result further from the low level center. You could see it very clearly in the early stages of subtropical development of Nicole, as maximum winds and convection were well east. Since then, the wind field has tightened and become more symmetrical, as is necessary for a tropical cyclone—this organization allowed Nicole to become a hurricane. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 18Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 18Z EURO. Ehh another big rain maker potential shrinking with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Good practice for winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Any rains would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Heads up for those of us south and east of I-95 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 18Z WB 3K NAM did shift heavier rain bands east of mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Well written AFD from LWX this afternoon .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Hurricane Nicole, now Tropical Storm Nicole, will impact the area Friday into Friday night. Nicole will continue to weaken as the storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the potential for multiple hazards to the region. With the ensemble mean low track near or just west of the Allegheny Front, the region will be in the warm sector of the decaying remnants. A strong southerly flow of 40-55 kts right above the surface will result in a rather dynamic wind field and advect Tds into the mid to upper 60s with PWs 3-4 SA above normal. Given the building instability and lift associated with the first quasi- warm frontal band, rain showers will likely overspread the region near or by daybreak Friday. Expect continued showers with isolated thunderstorms through the day, though coverage likely remains isolated to scattered in nature. By the afternoon once the first source of synoptic lift moves through, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon. By the evening, all attention will focus to the remnant low and south/southeast extending frontal feature which could be the focus for damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. The track and speed of the low will ultimately determine how much instability rooted within the boundary layer remains post sunset due to diurnal constraints of instability this time of year. Given the strong wind field, any instability may be sufficient for the production of isolated severe thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. Now for the hazards Heavy Rain Potential ... With the persistent south/southeast flow and moisture advection into the area, the Blue Ridge (southern Blue Ridge near Wintergreen) will be the focus for the highest QPF amounts (2-3", locally higher) through the event. With the persistent south/southeast flow, the area to the northwest of the Blue Ridge (Shenandoah Valley and the Hampshire to Hardy County area into Washington County) could actually downslope resulting in less QPF across that area. The secondary maximum in QPF is likely across the eastern slopes of the Allegheny Front (1-3"). Along and east of I-95 much lower amounts of an inch or less are expected. With the low tracking along or west of the Alleghenies, the forcing will be better in that area. To the east, the intermittent nature and lack of persistent forcing will result in lower amounts. Believe the relative lack or suppressed amounts of instability will help tamper the Flash Flood threat even though PWs are near 1.75". FFG is also the highest it has been in some time given the 2-3" departure from normal precipitation over the region from the past 30 days. With that being said, isolated to scattered instances of flooding are possible Friday and Friday night along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains (especially in areas near higher terrain susceptible to poor drainage). All ensembles and MARFC keep rivers below any flood stages. Severe Thunderstorm Potential ... From an environmental standpoint, most ingredients will exist Friday afternoon/evening. The shear (50-60+ kts), SRH (100-300 m2/s2), LCLs (<1000m at times), SPC/STP (>1), extra/sub-tropical rainbands all are worrisome. However, there is considerably uncertainty regarding how much instability (CAPE) exists when the aforementioned band moves through the region (generally speaking near 7 PM through 1 AM) and remains rooted within the boundary layer. Some guidance has the instability elevated by the time this feature moves through. There could be discrete low-topped supercells as indicated by some guidance and supported by model soundings ahead of this feature during the afternoon hours. Regardless, severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday evening. Damaging Wind Potential ... With a dynamic wind field just above the surface (40-55kts), the focus and tricky part of the forecast will be how much and if any of this mixes down to the surface Friday evening into the overnight. Model guidance diverges on if this makes it to the surface, but given the bias of some guidance to bring down too much rain on the backside of precipitation, have opted not to pursue Wind Advisories at this time. There is likely a 1-3 hour surge of enhanced winds (perhaps 30-45 mph) translating from SSW to NNE through the center of the CWA Friday evening into the overnight. Therefore, gusty winds may result in an isolated wind damage threat Friday evening through Friday night. The areas of greatest concern area especially along the higher ridges of the Allegheny Front, Blue Ridge, and Catoctin Mountains. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 WB 0Z 3K NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Rain has commenced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Mod to at times heavy rain. 52 degrees. Already 0.8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wet morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Already a bit more rain than I had expected, given the trends over the last few days. Would be nice to rack it up now and then get this thing out of here in time for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 0.46". Already beat some of the low end models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Very happy with the rain we are getting and there's more to the south moving in. Much needed especially with a lot of new grass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Light sometimes moderate rain 0.44” so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wouldn't shock me to see a Tornado Watch closer in to the metros this afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.85 inches down here near Waynesboro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Driving rain here this morning. Approaching 1.5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.02". Up to 67/66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Only 0.45” here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 1.6” 1:1 ratios though. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 0.66” here a bit humid 68/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 .56 up this way so far. off/on bands of heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Sitting at 0.81 as the steadier stuff moves off. Very nice! 3 tornado warnings south of Richmond near the VA/NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Gotta love 70F dewpoints in mid November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1.4” here. Nice soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 0.46" here so far. Done for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Those warning look to go east of me. They don’t look too bad. I’m hearing occasional thunder too. Rain hasn’t been to heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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